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Draft Grades

2009 IIFFL Draft Grades
By: Jon Holubiak
September 8, 2009

Alright IIFFL fans, here is Mr. Teabag’s recap and judgment of this year’s IIFFL draft. All opinions of this commentary are of Mr. Teabag only, and to direct all subsequent hate mail to yourself, as it was you making these decisions at the draft, not me. Seriously, this is all in good fun, so don’t start crying. Go out there, and make the moves to win yourself a championship.

Keep in mind the following things. I graded based on projected starters as well as overall depth of a position. I considered injuries, potential injuries, position battles, potential touches and correlated sharing of workloads, draft position, who you could have drafted instead, whether or not I like a guy and all sorts of other stuff. I put a position grade by category, named your best and worst pick, added one final comment and then gave you one overall grade. There is some curving taken into consideration as well, so don’t get too upset. Teams are listed in the same order as you drafted. You’ve given me this power, and it’s a privilege to judge you. I even threw some awards in at the end. Now, sit back, grab a glass of milk and some cookies, kick your feet up and relax. Let’s start this off with some Anal… Enjoy!

Anzahl Funf

Anal did himself a favor by trading for a solid keeper. We don’t know if Steve Slaton can be as effective as he was last year, but he is definitely better than the options Fun had before Slaton was acquired. Taking Slaton’s teammate Andre Johnson with the first overall pick was a wise decision as well. That being said, although Johnson is a beast and Slaton has game-breaking talent, almost all of Anal’s draftees have some sort of question mark, especially surrounding the quarterback position. Both of his QB’s are new to their systems under new head coaches – and both already have injury issues. Not sure what to expect out of either of these guys. Slaton is a bonafide starter, who should carry most of the load in Houston, although he apparently will lose some touches in the red zone to Chris Brown. Pierre Thomas is in a fantastic offense, but it looks like he’ll be doing a lot of sharing with Reggie Kardashian and Mike “yes, I’m still in the league” Bell. I’m also not enamored with Thomas like some others may be. I like Jonathan Stewart and Chris Wells, but Stewart is banged up (and backing up) and Wells is headed to the taxi squad. Beyond Johnson at the receiver position, there is a lot of upside, with Bowe, Hester, and Royal all having the ability to have huge years. However, all three of them are still risks, as KC and Denver could have QB issues and we have yet to see Hester perform like a No. 1. That being said, KC and Denver will be behind in a lot of games, and they will be passing a lot, so look for this group to play well. I like the Bears return game, with Manning and Hester both having homerun ability.

Grades:

QB: D+ (should have taken one sooner, but gets an upgrade if Matt Ryan is detaxified)

RB: C+ (too much RBBC)

WR/TE: B- (lots of questions, but a ton of talent)

DEF/ST: B

BEST PICK: Andre Johnson

WORST PICK: Matt Cassell as starting QB

COMMENT: Matt Cassell and Kyle Orton? Icky. Beanie Wells gets the call up from the Taxi squad at some point this season, unless Anal isn’t having that much fun and packs it in again. Catch all that?

OVERALL: C-

TurkeyCreek

Two years in a row of Tom Brady? Is Turkey Brady’s long lost father? I think Brady is back and is going to be huge, but with QB’s now only earning 4 points instead of 6 per TD pass I’m not so sure he was worth the number 2 overall pick. However, he has the potential to prove me wrong. Now, Larry Johnson in the 2nd round? That is another story. There were a number of players that could have been selected there that would help Nate out more than Larry Johnson will. Johnson probably could have been taken 3-4 rounds later. At least he picked up Charles in case Johnson continues to digress. He’s got a top 3 QB, a top 5 RB, and nobody at WR. TO is the top receiver here, and him and his entire Buffalo squad are a mystery. Welker, Vincent Jackson, and Desean Jackson were all still available, and look for all three of those guys to end the year with better numbers than the aging Owens. Holmes, Chambers, Steve NYG Smith, Branch, Bradley?? I dunno about that group. Shockey and Brees don’t have the greatest report and Vernon Davis has yet to live up to his highly touted talent coming out of college.

Grades:

QB: A- (took Brady too early)

RB: C- (Larry Johnson pulls this down, but I like McCoy on the taxi for the future)

WR: D (not good, no No. 1)

DEF/ST: B-

BEST PICK: LeSean McCoy for taxi sqaud

WORST PICK: Larry Johnson as number 2 RB

COMMENT: Beyond Forte and Brady, nobody on this team scares me. I want Turkey in my division again. I’ll miss you Nate!!!

OVERALL: D

The Crosby Sweaters

The former pudding pop tops have a nice squad for 2009. Taking Steven Jackson 3rd overall should pay off, as the man is a stud and he is healthy – for now. I’m sure Crosby had planned on taking a WR with that first pick, but with Jackson falling it obviously made for a different decision. That being said, the Sweaters still managed a very strong receiving corps with Welker, Housh, and Driver as projected starters. Earl Bennett could prove to be a wise decision, and I’m sure some of us are hoping he is. Davone Bess? I think Greg Camarillo will see a lot of action in Miami, and Davone Bess will see none with this fantasy football team. Love Jeremy Maclin [shakes fist]. Tony G. will have a big year with Matt Ryan chucking, as Roddy White and Michael Turner will be drawing a lot of attention from opposing defenses. Palmer and Hasselbeck always have injury concerns, but if they can both survive the season they will produce. Aside from Gore and Jackson, the RB situation looks… well, I suppose, it’s okay. Fast Willie Parker became Slow and Old Willie Parker fast, but he is still Tomlin’s RB in Pitt. Bradshaw will spell Jacobs a lot and could be huge if Brandon gets hurt. Maroney? Isn’t he still hurt? No? You sure? How many running backs are on that team anyway?? Nice unit nonetheless.

Grades

QB: B (like both if healthy)

RB: B+ (starters could have huge years)

WR/TE: B+ (solid group)

DEF/ST: A (great Minny D, Elam kicks indoors, and Josh Cribbs will see A LOT of action for the dawg pound)

BEST PICK: Carson Palmer (we know I’ve always had a man crush on him)

WORST PICK: Laurence Maroney (I’m pretty sure I’m ahead of him on the New England depth chart)

COMMENT: Very well rounded team here, look for a strong season out of the hockey sweaters.

OVERALL: B+

SickPigs

A down season and subsequent roster unloading gave the Pigs some extra picks for this year’s draft, and while Reynolds traded the extra 4th rounder, the extra 2nd rounder from the Teabags should prove to be huge. Randy Moss was a wise decision with the 4th overall pick, as with Brady healthy he will be huge this year. Calvin Johnson was another option, as I expect him to be big this year as well, so we’ll see who puts up better numbers. Portis with his second pick (acquired from Teabags) – best RB and player available at that spot. Colston as his other 2nd rounder, and Witten in the 3rd? Awesome first few rounds. Love the WR-RB-WR-RB strategy. Marshall in the 4th could be a steal. We really don’t know what to expect of him but it looks like he will be playing week one. Kurt Warner is old, but we say that every year. He’s always been old, but he’s still pretty good and he has the best wide receiver corps in the league. David Garrard is an excellent backup though. LT looks to bounce back and be his old self. I’m positive we are all a little tired of the Pigs year-in, year-out success and while last year was quite refreshing it appears to be a minor hiccup as this team looks very tough (mandatory disclaimer “as long as they stay healthy”).

Grades

QB: A- (Warner and Garrard will both be top 15 fantasy QBs)

RB: A- (not much depth but LT and Portis are a quality 1-2 punch)

WR/TE: A- (Marshall, Hixon, and Holt fighting for the 3rd spot is a nice problem, and a cooperative Marshall as a 3rd? Worth the risk – more man crush here)

DEF/ST: A

BEST PICK: David Garrard as his backup

WORST PICK: Cedric Peerman (Who in the hell is this guy and do we know what team he is even on? Maybe one day we’ll find out, as I hear he is very talented)

COMMENT: Pains me to say it, and I had a hand in it by giving up a pick, but this is the team to beat. Good division matchup with the Crosbys, not so much with the [Jive] Turkeys.

OVERALL: A

Turd Furgusson

Turd came in with the best ovrall keeper situation, having Brian Westbrook and Chris Johnson (taxied, but should be activated), so he was set up nice not having to pick a RB early. I don’t know about Reggie Wayne over Calvin Johnson, as I expect big things out of the number 1 overall pick from a few years ago. But, he’s still Reggie Wayne, so no real issue there. I love what Aaron Rodgers is primed to do, as he looks to jet to the top of the fantasy QB rankings (take that Alex Smith). As for Reggie Bush – not bad as a backup, but I think I would have gone with a receiver here. Braylon Edwards and Lance Moore as his 2nd and 3rd receivers is, well, I don’t know. Moore will be fighting for balls with a healthy Colston, emerging Robert Meachem, and a healthy Devery Henderson (also picked by the Turds – what does this guy really ever do? Seems like one huge play one week, then nothing for 5, then hurt). Who knows what the hell Braylon Edwards will do, and we still don’t know who will be getting him the football (whether or not he decides to actually catch it is another thing). Look for Braylon to drop 5 or so sure TD passes. I like Chris Henry to be big this year in the Bengals offense. Palmer will be passing a lot, and with Ocho and Coles getting most of the attention, Henry should thrive and find his way into the Turds lineup. Favre loves his tight ends (don’t we all?), so look for Shiancoe to have a “big” year. Like Shonn Greene on the taxi squad too.

Grades

QB: A (Aaron Rodgers with Big Ben as a backup – nice)

RB: A- (Westbrook and Bush must stay healthy, and Johnson needs to find the end zone before Lendale)

WR/TE: C (Love Reggie Wayne and Visante, but everybody else is suspect)

DEF/ST: B+ (Bills are going to return a few kicks for 6, but Ravens D is another year older)

BEST PICK: Aaron Rodgers

WORST PICK: Josh Reed (Seriously? Why? Someone will need to be dropped for Chris Johnson to be activated – it’s gonna be this dude)

COMMENT: Reggie Bush is pre-ranked as a top 20 back on most sites, and will get a ton of action as a receiver, but he likes to get hurt, and I’m not the biggest fan of him fantasy wise. If Bush stays healthy, he’ll be good and get a lot of points in the Saints offense – may be moot if Johnson gets the call up.

OVERALL: B

Mr. Jessica Biel

Best part about Strange’s draft? His naked picture of Jessica Biel on his computer desktop. Stranger had a couple of rough picks. Marion Barber over Calvin Johnson? (I really like Johnson if you haven’t noticed) Meh, Barber is still a good option and will find the end zone a lot. I like Ochocinco to have a big year, but I think Colston may have been the better pick – however, I understand not wanting Brees and Colston on the same squad. I’ve always liked Thomas Jones, but he’s another year older and Leon Washington is about to get a big contract while Shonn Greene is going to command some carries as well. Favre doesn’t have the arm strength he once did, so Berrian may not haul in as many bombs, but he will still be better than he has been in the past. As for selecting Antwaan Randle El as his third WR – brain fart. Steve Breaston will get more balls, but both leave Biel short at the WR position. The Bears secondary blows, and Biel took them WAAAAAAAAYYY too early. Way early. I hope I’m wrong and they go bananas, and score a ton of touchdowns, but they are gonna give up some points. I like Crabtree as a taxi squad player, but he won’t be helping Jessica this year.

Grades

QB: A (Brees will be huge again)

RB: C- (Barber is good, Jones is okay, but not any quality depth)

WR/TE: D (Like Ochocinco, not anybody else though, although Berrian could be nice)

DEF/ST: C-

BEST PICK: Barber

WORST PICK: Randle El (nobody else was gonna draft this guy!)

COMMENT: Biel has one hell of a QB and a couple of nice RBs. But beyond them and Ochocinco, this team is trouble and has no depth. Child, please!

OVERALL: C-

I Picks Cotton

Cotton had Calvin Johnson fall into his lap at the 7th overall pick - no brainer there. He has a top 5 RB and top 5 WR, with both having the potential to be the top at their position. Not having that 2nd round pick can prove to be a serious detriment as he missed out on a number of quality players. But buying himself an extra pick in the 4th, and getting DeSean Jackson with said pick was a good decision to help offset the lack of a 2nd rounder. Jackson, Johnson, Ward, and Walter should be a nice set of wideouts. Julius Jones and Darren McFadden are not the answer at the No. 2 RB spot though. McFadden could be great, but he is still a Raider, and he is sharing the load with Bush and Fargas. Also, did I mention he’s still a Raider? Who knows what is going on in Oakland and if Russell live up to his billing. I like Julius Jones this year, but he is coming off a poor 2008 campaign and someone Seattle felt the need to bring in Edgerrin James to spell Jones, and maybe even replace him. Another big question there. If Hightower gets promoted, he will add depth, but I’m not sure what his role will be with Beanie Wells in the mix in AZ. Cooley and Miller are both quality, but Cooley only had 1 TD last year and Miller is, again, a Raider. Cooley will definitely get more Touchdowns though and I think Miller is set to be Russell’s go-to guy, so this is a nice rotation. I don’t care for the TB defense, but after the top 5 D’s or so, there is a big drop-off and everybody has a different list on who’s in the next tier.

Grades

QB: B+ (Romo was taken first, but Schaub could have monster numbers - if healthy)

RB: C (Turner is an A, but depth may prove to be an issue)

WR/TE: B+ (Megatron and Jackson will have a very nice year, and Walter should get a ton opposite Andre)

DEF/ST: C+ (Tampa will struggle, but Sproles returning kicks is nice)

BEST PICK: Calvin Johnson

WORST PICK: The 2nd round pick that wasn’t.

COMMENT: Quality squad here. Romo will still pass a ton and Schaub needs to stay healthy. McFadden or Hightower need to break out to help Turner carry the load, as Atlanta doesn’t have the easy road they did last year.

OVERALL: B

Robintucky Raiders

What do Derrick Ward, Marshawn Lynch, Michael Bush, and Rashard Mendenhall have in common? None of them are starting running backs to begin the season. Ward was already in a RBBC with Cadillac and Earnest Graham, Lynch won’t play the first 3 weeks - opening the door for Fred Jackson to steal his job, Bush will get carries but is still behind McFadden, and Mendenhall is behind Kinda Fast Willie and still sits on Tuck’s Taxi squad (and he’s probably still hurt). Looks like DeAngelo has his work cut out for him. I think Derrick Ward will put up some points, but the situation in Tampa is too iffy to have him as the No. 2 back on this team. The Robinson Raiders should have taken a RB in the first round and waited on the QB position. Manning will be great this year, but the way this team turned out, there are greater needs elsewhere. Hindsight is 20/20 though. Love Roddy “Show me the money” White and Greg Olsen is poised to be a pro bowl Tight End thanks to his new boyfriend Jay Cutler and their love affair. After those two catching the ball, I’m not sure who will consistently show up for this team. Santana will get 3 TDs in a game at some point and make Tuck feel good about it, but most weeks he’ll drive this team mad. Antonio Bryant could be a great addition – if somebody can get him the football (and he can stay healthy). Nate Washington – hurt, Hakeem Nicks – Taxied, Jordy Nelson – white. Don’t like this group, but will like to see them on my schedule twice. Giants Defense is a plus and I’m sure whoever is returning kicks for Detroit will get a ton of chances.

Grades

QB: B+ (Took Manning too early, only reason not an A)

RB: D+ (After DeAngelo, way too much of sharing of carries)

WR/TE: C+ (White and Olsen – awesome/other dudes – eww)

DEF/ST: B

BEST PICK: Greg Olsen

WORST PICK: Derrick Ward with Joseph Addai still available

COMMENT: Moss and Bryant are going to need to show consistency to help this team win, Derrick Ward needs Cadillac Williams to have another season ending leg injury, and Marshawn needs to outplay Fred Jackson when he gets back, or he will be out of a job.

OVERALL: C-

Banger9

The combination of Adrian Peterson and Brandon Jacobs will be tough to beat each week. Both will be focal points of the offense near the end zone. Jacobs has to stay healthy for the Bangers as there is basically no depth beyond the two starters (who knows how Fred Taylor will be used in New England and Donald Brown will be on the taxi squad – and behind Addai anyway). I like Steve Smith, Anthony Gonzalez, and Donnie Avery as the starting wideouts, but Avery already has health concerns. Clayton and Morgan could both be nice sleepers, and may be called upon if Avery has season long issues. Although, Antonio Gates helps make up for any shortfall that there may be at the WR position. Speaking of issues, Eli Manning and Joe Flacco as Banger’s only QBs should be a concern. Manning is too inconsistent to be relied upon as a fantasy starter and Flacco still needs to prove himself as a viable fantasy option.

Grades

QB: D+ (only backups here)

RB: A- (Two huge runners, but that’s it)

WR/TE: B+ (some nice options with upside)

DEF/ST: B

BEST PICK: Brandon Jacobs

WORST PICK: Pittsburgh Defense in the 5th round (should have shored up his RB position and waited on a D)

COMMENT: The backfield’s health and the emergence of a third wideout are major keys here, as is the success of Anthony Gonzalez. With the lack of a starting QB, and possible concerns at that 3rd wide receiver position, Gonzalez needs to get a lot of looks from Peyton Manning to prove he’s a strong number 2 and to help this team win consistently.

OVERALL: B

Tyrannical Teabaggers

The Teabags had a plan for the first 4 rounds, and had a player targeted for each pick. That plan was derailed in the first round, as Greg Jennings wasn’t supposed to still be available. Having 2 of the top 6 receivers will be huge for the Baggers, and the offseason workout buddies will have to carry some weight as a lot of other Teabaggers are question marks. Moving Slaton and getting back into the second round was a big move and getting one of the few RB’s not involved in a RBBC, Kevin Smith, with that pick should prove to be a positive. Baggers should have picked up Joseph Addai with their next pick, and then selected Knowshon Moreno, rather than selecting Moreno first and watching Addai go to the Grannie’s. Moreno is a big concern, as he has been hurt and he is going into a Jay Cutler-less offense with new head moron Josh McDumbhead. However, Moreno does look to be the man in Denver when he gets rolling, and I think Buckhalter just hurt himself grocery shopping. Lendale White is another question, as Chris Johnson is poised to take on a bigger role, although White will still be getting the goal line opportunities. Fred Jackson and James Davis may both be starting by the end of the year, with Lynch being suspended (and sluggish) and Jamal Lewis being a bum, respectively. Starting wideouts for the Baggers look good with Fitz, Jennings, and Cotchery (contrary to one anonymous GM’s opition). Look for Cotchery to post 85 rec, 1300 yards, and 7 TDs (eat it). Crayton and Robinson both have yet to prove themselves and may not find themselves on this team come November. Teabags aren’t a team to normally reach for a player, but hit the panic button and selected Jay Cutler earlier than he should have been taken. I think the Baggers GM saw the possible injury concerns of Warner, Palmer, and Schaub and decided he needed to get a reliable QB ASAP. Brett Favre is a nice backup and John Carlson looks to be one of Matt Hasselbeck’s favorite targets.

Grades

QB: B+ (Cutler was a reach, but should provide dividends, and Favre is a solid spot starter)

RB: C+ (Ton of depth, but not a number 1 back here)

WR/TE: A (Two number 1’s should carry the load, Carlson needs to prove his value as a top 10 TE)

DEF/ST: B+ (Philly’s special teams should have some nice returns, Green Bay has the talent but is in a new system, and a kicker is a kicker)

BEST PICK: Greg Jennings

WORST PICK: Knowshon Moreno a pick early

COMMENT: Teabaggers need Smith and Moreno to step up and be high quality feature backs. Also wouldn’t hurt if some of the other Tyrannical backs get promotions throughout the season. I think we all know this entire squad will be traded anyway.

OVERALL: B

Hell’s Grannies

Granny, Marion Barber was already selected so you go with Donovan McNabb? Did you think Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, and a few of the other top QB’s were already taken too? Don’t get me wrong, I like McNabb, but as your first pick? You could have got him much later. I like the combination of Jones-Drew and Ryan Grant. Grant was on the Teabags radar and he is in a superb offense. Look for these two to make some serious noise. Addai as a 3rd runner is a great move, making for a very strong group, with all three carrying most of the load for their respective team. Vincent Jackson was a nice pick and should be a pleasant surprise. Coles, Mason, and Harvin are next on the depth chart and although they are nice receivers, none are going to put up monster numbers. Owen Daniels is an excellent tight end and should find some room with Andre getting double covered – let’s just hope Sexy Rexy doesn’t have to try and get all of these these Texan players the ball. Like the Miami D and Kris Brown kicking field goals, but who cares, he’s a fucking kicker.

Grades

QB: C (wrong spot to take Donovan)

RB: A (love the three starters)

WR/TE: B- (Jackson, Coles, and Mason are serviceable)

DEF/ST: B

BEST PICK: Joseph Addai in the 4th

WORST PICK: Donovan McNabb in the 1st

COMMENT: Good squad overall, but with better drafting could have been much better.

OVERALL: B-

Team Witz

The Witz’ draft starts with the GM’s decision to keep Ronnie Brown rather than one of the top 4 receivers he had, in Calvin Johnson and Randy Moss. Then his first pick is a QB. I just don’t know about this start. Brown could have been picked up in the 3rd or 4th round and Rivers could have been had late 2nd or earlier 3rd. But hey, when you want a guy, go and get him. After Ronnie, Witz has Cedric Benson, Chris “feed me the rock near the goal line” Brown, Cadillac Williams, and Jamal Lewis rounding out his backfield. Quite the cast of characters there. Brown, Williams, Lewis, and Benson are all starters at this point, but they aren’t projected to be very productive and aside from Ronnie, nobody else has a secure job. This year, Witz abandoned the three-headed monster philosophy at the receiver position and attempted a more balanced roster. That left Boldin, Roy Williams, Burleson, Evans, and Ginn to fill the big shoes of Calvin, Ocho, and Randy. They aren’t gonna do it, and they won’t even come close. Boldin is money if he can stay on the field, and Williams is an elite talent, however he needs to show he can mesh in Dallas. Burleson has never done much, Evans is in a terrible offense and is not the number 2 guy, and Ginn should be able to post some numbers, but you never know what Miami is going to do. I love Dallas Clark at the Tight End position; he will be a massive producer this year. I don’t like Heyward-Bey, I’m certain he will be a bust. It’s not a bad idea to have him on the taxi, but I think this guy will be a bum, for no other reason than he is a Raider.

Grades

QB: B (Took Rivers too early, but he is still an excellent choice. Should have picked Rodgers though)

RB: D (Not much here)

WR/TE: C

DEF/ST: B

BEST PICK: Dallas Clark

WORST PICK: Phillip Rivers in the first

COMMENT: Couple of quality guys here, but a ton of guys that are big fat question marks. Would like to see a lot of these players succeed, as I am a humanitarian. But, I’m also a realist, and there’s a good set of injuries and bums on this roster.

OVERALL: D+

2009 Draft Awards

The You Have Got To Be Kidding Me! Award – Eric Smith for selecting Marion Barber five spots after he had already been drafted, and in the first round!! The first round Smith!!

The What In The Fuck?! Award – Eric Smith for taking Donavan McNabb in the first round, right after he wrongly selected Marion Barber. Let me ask you sir; exactly how far up your ass was your head?

The Thanks A Lot, Assholes! Award – Nate Fiscus, Ryan Corn, Zak Walls. Thanks for not showing up and extending the draft by approx. 2 hours because of all of your crazy online drafting. Derek Abney? Twice? C’mon!

The Why??? Award – Ryan Corn. Josh Reed. Why??

The Huh??? Award – Jay Strange. Antwaan Randle El. Huh??

The Toby Keith Is Gonna Put A Boot Up Your Ass. Award – Nolan Leever for getting some silly melon shot, then actually requesting the bartender make him an entire jug of the stuff. You have no business driving a giant blue pickup truck, says Toby Keith.

The No Wonder Your Wonderlic Score Was Low Award (presented by Vince Young) – Nolan Leever for keeping Ronnie Brown over Moss and Johnson

The Cedric Peerman Award – Cedric Peerman, for getting drafted and sticking around for the next few years on the Pigs taxi squad.

The Government Experiment Gone Wrong Award – Mick, for the noxious gasses emitting from his anal fun.

The Honorary Patrick Kane Beatdown Division – Republic (Witz, Anal, Biel). These guys may only beat each other.

§!¢kp!g$ Draft Analysis
September 8, 2009

QB: David Garrard, Kurt Warner
RB: LaDainian Tomlinson, Clinton Portis, Ray Rice, Leon Washington, Kevin Faulk, Ricky Williams, Cedric Peerman
WR: Randy Moss, Marques Colston, Torry Holt, Brandon Marshall, Domenik Hixon
TE: Jason Witten
PK: Nate Kaeding
TD: Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins

Overview:

In a competitive league, almost every team has a weakness. It's almost impossible to build a team that is strong at all three core positions (quarterback, running back and wide receiver). As you probably suspect, we perceive your weakness to be at the quarterback position. Of all the deficiencies to have though, this is usually the easiest one to mask.

So although this team isn't perfect (few are), it should still be a strong contender.

Players we particularly like on this team include Kevin Faulk, Leon Washington, Torry Holt, Ricky Williams, Ray Rice, Domenik Hixon, Nate Kaeding, and the Eagles defense. We have all these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.

Bottom line: This team is a virtual lock to go to the playoffs.

In any event, we wish you the best of luck. Here's hoping all your weeks are like week 14 of 2007:

LaDainian Tomlinson vs. TEN: 173 combined yards, 2 TD
Randy Moss vs. PIT: 135 receiving yards, 2 TD
Brandon Marshall vs. KC: 115 receiving yards, 2 TD
Marques Colston vs. ATL: 92 receiving yards, 2 TD
Jason Witten vs. DET: 138 receiving yards, 1 TD
Kurt Warner vs. SEA: 337 passing yards, 3 TD

QB Summary:

We have David Garrard rated #9 among quarterbacks, which makes him a less-than-stellar starter in this league. But we like the selection of our #11-rated QB, Kurt Warner, to go with him. Hopefully between the two of them, you should be able to cobble together some good production at the position, but this strategy always carries with it the downside that you'll drive yourself crazy trying to decide who to start from week to week.

Incidentally, these two have a terrific combined schedule and a decent playoff schedule too. If you simply played the one with the better matchup each week, this is the schedule you'd face:

SF | ARI | HOU | TEN | HOU | SEA | NYG | TEN | CHI | SEA | STL | TEN | MIN | MIA | DET | STL

A quick note about the Garrard/Torry Holt hookup you've got here: while we think the effect of the quarterback/receiver hookup has largely been exaggerated in fantasy football circles, it does have a tendency to make your team somewhat more inconsistent than comparable scoring duos from different NFL teams. But if you like the players at both ends of the connection, we do not see any need to make a change because of it.

RB Summary:

Your starting running back group is a strength, particularly Clinton Portis as a second running back. We figure them at a combined 1.3 points per game better than an average opponent in this league. Our projections have LaDainian Tomlinson ranked at #6 and Portis ranked 13th.

Your bench also looks good. Ray Rice should serve as a very solid third running back. Likewise, Leon Washington should be excellent at RB4.

Since you're strong at the position, you probably don't absolutely need to roster more than four players here. Of your remaining guys, we like Kevin Faulk the best, but you should keep the one you think has the best chance of putting up starter numbers. The rest might be considered expendable if you find you need roster space elsewhere.

WR Summary:

Nice work here. We like all your starting receivers, as our projections indicate that they give you a combined 3.5 point-per-game advantage over an average opponent in this league. Randy Moss is our #3 ranked receiver, Marques Colston is #11, and we have Torry Holt 27th.

Your bench also looks good. We love Brandon Marshall as a fourth receiver. Domenik Hixon will also be among the best WR5s in the league.

TE Summary:

As you are well aware, Jason Witten is an elite tight end. We have him ranked first overall at the position. He's about 2.6 points per game better than an average starting TE in this league. Given your league rules and the presence of Witten, your decision to roll with just one tight end is a reasonable one.

Kicker Summary:

At about 0.8 points per game above average, Nate Kaeding is our second ranked kicker, so you're set here.

Defense Summary:

Between the Eagles and the Redskins, you should get above average production here.

Schedule Analysis

Green means GO (good matchup), red means STOP (bad matchup). Main starters highlighted

At the bottom of the table, the Relative Strength row shows you how strong we project your team to be, relative to your usual strength, in that week. This accounts for byes and matchups.

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
David Garrard	IND	ARI	HOU	TEN	SEA	STL		TEN	KC	NYJ	BUF	SF	HOU	MIA	IND	NE
Kurt Warner	SF	JAX	IND		HOU	SEA	NYG	CAR	CHI	SEA	STL	TEN	MIN	SF	DET	STL

Kevin Faulk	BUF	NYJ	ATL	BAL	DEN	TEN	TB		MIA	IND	NYJ	NO	MIA	CAR	BUF	JAX
Cedric Peerman	MIN	DEN	BAL	CIN	BUF	PIT	GB	CHI		BAL	DET	CIN	SD	PIT	KC	OAK
Clinton Portis	NYG	STL	DET	TB	CAR	KC	PHI		ATL	DEN	DAL	PHI	NO	OAK	NYG	DAL
Ray Rice	KC	SD	CLE	NE	CIN	MIN		DEN	CIN	CLE	IND	PIT	GB	DET	CHI	PIT
LaDainian Tomlinson	OAK	BAL	MIA	PIT		DEN	KC	OAK	NYG	PHI	DEN	KC	CLE	DAL	CIN	TEN
Leon Washington	HOU	NE	TEN	NO	MIA	BUF	OAK	MIA		JAX	NE	CAR	BUF	TB	ATL	IND
Ricky Williams	ATL	IND	SD	BUF	NYJ		NO	NYJ	NE	TB	CAR	BUF	NE	JAX	TEN	HOU

Marques Colston	DET	PHI	BUF	NYJ		NYG	MIA	ATL	CAR	STL	TB	NE	WAS	ATL	DAL	TB
Domenik Hixon	WAS	DAL	TB	KC	OAK	NO	ARI	PHI	SD		ATL	DEN	DAL	PHI	WAS	CAR
Torry Holt	IND	ARI	HOU	TEN	SEA	STL		TEN	KC	NYJ	BUF	SF	HOU	MIA	IND	NE
Brandon Marshall	CIN	CLE	OAK	DAL	NE	SD		BAL	PIT	WAS	SD	NYG	KC	IND	OAK	PHI
Randy Moss	BUF	NYJ	ATL	BAL	DEN	TEN	TB		MIA	IND	NYJ	NO	MIA	CAR	BUF	JAX

Jason Witten	TB	NYG	CAR	DEN	KC		ATL	SEA	PHI	GB	WAS	OAK	NYG	SD	NO	WAS

Nate Kaeding	OAK	BAL	MIA	PIT		DEN	KC	OAK	NYG	PHI	DEN	KC	CLE	DAL	CIN	TEN

Philadelphia Eagles	CAR	NO	KC		TB	OAK	WAS	NYG	DAL	SD	CHI	WAS	ATL	NYG	SF	DEN
Washington Redskins	NYG	STL	DET	TB	CAR	KC	PHI		ATL	DEN	DAL	PHI	NO	OAK	NYG	DAL

Relative Strength	100	100	101	101	97	103	92	101	104	100	98	99	100	101	99	98

Schedule and Matchup Notes:

Please note that the Relative strength numbers above account for both byes and matchups.

Remember that you might have starters on bye in a given week, but still have a high relative strength. This could occur because of favorable matchups, or it might be because you are projected to be missing less production than an average opponent will (your opponents have to deal with byes too).

Week 7 presents serious bye week issues for you: David Garrard, Ray Rice, Torry Holt, and Brandon Marshall are off.

Week 5 presents moderate bye week issues: LaDainian Tomlinson, Marques Colston, and Nate Kaeding are not playing.

Week 8 presents moderate bye week issues: Kevin Faulk, Clinton Portis, Randy Moss, and Washington Redskins are not playing.

In weeks 4, 6, 9, and 10 you'll probably be better off than your opponent, as far as byes are concerned.

Potential Free Agents

Listed in order of preference. We don't know exactly who is available in your league, but here is a list of players who might be available and could be upgrades over some of your depth players, listed in order of preference. Your players are listed in red for comparison. Players who might not mesh well with the bye weeks of your key players are grayed out.

QB: we don't necessarily recommend any roster moves here.

RB: Ahmad Bradshaw (10), Tim Hightower (4), Jamal Lewis (9), Julius Jones (7), LenDale White (7), LeSean McCoy (4), Michael Bush (9), James Davis (9), Edgerrin James (7), LeRon McClain (7), Rashard Mendenhall (8), Ladell Betts (8), Willis McGahee (7), Mewelde Moore (8), Jerome Harrison (9), Peyton Hillis (7), Rashad Jennings (7), Glen Coffee (6), Mike Bell (5). We have all these players rated ahead of Cedric Peerman.

WR: we don't necessarily recommend any roster moves here.

TE: we don't necessarily recommend any roster moves here.

PK: we don't necessarily recommend any roster moves here.

TD: Chicago Bears (5), New England Patriots (8), Green Bay Packers (5), New York Jets (9), Miami Dolphins (6), Buffalo Bills (9), Seattle Seahawks (7), Indianapolis Colts (6), Dallas Cowboys (6), Washington Redskins (8).

Projections and Player Summaries

Player	Cmp	Att	YD	Y/A	TD	INT	Rsh	YD	TD	FPT	Rank
David Garrard	308	500	3385	6.8	19	13	60	264	2	247.7	9
Kurt Warner	327	512	3661	7.2	26	15	18	4	0	239.9	11

David Garrard - Garrard should have a fantasy season comparable to last year's. Holt will provide some help, but he isn't the superstar he used to be. The offensive line should be better, but that will probably make a bigger difference in the running game than in the passing game. The Jaguars probably won't play from behind as often, but if they can better sustain drives, they'll have more total offensive plays. All in all, we can probably expect comparable yardage numbers and 15 to 20 TDs.

Kurt Warner - In all likelihood, since it appears almost certain that Anquan Boldin will remain in town for another year, Warner will be a solid starting fantasy QB. He plays in a spread offense against mostly inferior pass defenses this year. He will provide six to nine games of elite fantasy numbers, and he should be a solid performer most of the other weeks.

Player	Rsh	YD	Y/Rsh	TD	Rec	YD	TD	FPT	Rank
LaDainian Tomlinson	280	1162	4.2	11	37	274	1	229.8	6
Clinton Portis	285	1211	4.2	10	25	188	0	202.4	13
Ray Rice	190	779	4.1	5	39	296	1	158.0	27
Leon Washington	120	588	4.9	4	47	353	2	151.1	29
Kevin Faulk	65	319	4.9	1	50	380	2	112.9	42
Ricky Williams	125	506	4.0	4	29	203	1	112.9	43
Cedric Peerman	0	0		0	0	0	0	0.0	121

Kevin Faulk - In the 2008 season, Kevin Faulk played on more offensive plays than any other Patriots' running back, and the team still will find ways to get him the ball. Faulk won't be a Top-10 back, but he is usually a decent safety valve and could still hold some value in PPR leagues.

Clinton Portis - Portis has been a Top 10 fantasy running back in five of seven seasons, including three as a Redskin. As long as he remains healthy, you can be sure he'll be the centerpiece of the offense. With a willingness to pound the ball inside but the vision to make tacklers miss in the open field, few backs are as sure to perform against any level of competition as Portis. As usual, Portis is an elite fantasy back that you can probably draft a few picks later than his value.

Ray Rice - Rice is probably going to increase his total number of touches this season. Rice certainly doesn't have ideal size to be a feature back and despite being the future at the position, he needs a qualifier. He probably isn't going to be an every-down back even when McGahee is gone, so the team would do well to find out just how much of a role he can handle.

LaDainian Tomlinson - Norv Turner said during the offseason that he intends to get Tomlinson more touches than he had last season. If that comes to fruition, another #7 finish is about the worst one can reasonably expect out of Tomlinson, which makes him a solid pick in the first half of round one - that is, if you don’t have concerns about his ability to stay healthy, in which case you may want to pass on him in the first round entirely.

Leon Washington - Leon Washington will be an excellent option should something happen to Thomas Jones. But assuming Jones keeps plugging along as he has been, Washington's role isn't likely to increase very much in 2009 as the team also added rookie Shonn Greene. Washington will still be an adept receiver out of the backfield and will still fill a role on third downs in passing situations. About the only significant increase in playing time could be if the team opts to split him out wide and utilize his receiving skills more. They have a lot of inexperience at the wide receiver spot and could use all of the help they can get there.

Ricky Williams - Expect more of the same from Ricky Williams this year. The limited carries are helping to extend his career, and he has become a respected veteran in the locker room. He may finish with fewer carries this season if Ronnie Brown can handle a bigger workload, but Williams could also get a couple of starts should Brown get nicked up.

Player	Rsh	YD	Rec	YD	Y/Rec	TD	FPT	Rank
Randy Moss	2	10	82	1173	14.3	14	240.8	3
Marques Colston	0	0	81	1110	13.7	8	199.5	11
Torry Holt	0	0	72	871	12.1	6	159.1	27
Brandon Marshall	1	6	71	893	12.6	5	152.9	31
Domenik Hixon	2	12	55	726	13.2	5	131.3	39

Marques Colston - Colston is one of the safer options when considering top notch receivers for your fantasy draft. He is a key component of the top passing offense in the league and won't cost you as high a draft pick as most of the other elite WRs. While Colston probably won't have as many explosive games as other top guys, he will be consistent, catch lots of passes and be a reliable threat to reach the end zone.

Domenik Hixon - It shouldn't surprise you if Domenik Hixon starts all 16 games and leads the Giants in receptions. But it also shouldn't surprise you if he's displaced as a starter by midseason. He'll almost certainly be a starter early in the year but won't put up big numbers consistently. The Giants are going to spread the ball around, and Hixon is suitable mainly as a fantasy backup with upside if the younger players flounder.

Torry Holt - Holt's days of fantasy stardom are likely over, but he's probably the most reliable WR the Jaguars have had since Jimmy Smith. Holt should become a frequent target for Garrard while the Jaguars' younger WRs are brought along slowly. Holt can probably be considered a fantasy starter in leagues that start three WRs.

Brandon Marshall - If Marshall can stay healthy and out of trouble, he should continue to be among the Top 15 fantasy receivers. He is still a premier WR, and the opportunity is there for him to be a dominant fantasy force once again. However, there are enough obstacles for that outcome that one must be cautious where they select Marshall in their fantasy drafts.

Randy Moss - Given that Moss is still chasing a ring and the Patriots have a strong chance at getting one, it's likely that he will stay motivated throughout the season. He developed a great rapport and chemistry working with Brady, and if that magic is still there, he should again be a Top 3 receiver. Even without Brady, Moss ended up as the No. 10 fantasy WR last year - that would be his floor.

Player	Rec	YD	Y/Rec	TD	FPT	Rank
Jason Witten	82	950	11.6	7	175.5	1

Jason Witten - Witten should be the first or second TE drafted in any league format. He's Tony Romo's favorite target and is guaranteed to be among the top pass catchers at his position. Witten is light years better than any other receiver on the roster. He should be off the board by the third or fourth rounds in all leagues.

Player	FGM	FGA	XPM	XPA	FPT	Rank
Nate Kaeding	34	40	48	48	133.0	2

Nate Kaeding - Heading into 2004, Kaeding's fantasy prospects were considered by most to be very low. He was a promising talent, but he was still a rookie on one of the worst teams in the NFL. The Chargers proceeded to win 12 games, win the AFC West, and rank 10th in kicker scoring. That was a big jump from their 28th and 26th place rankings the two years prior. Kaeding's second year saw similar results as the Chargers ended up 12th in kicker scoring. His third year in 2006 was his most productive, as the team provided him with numerous scoring opportunities. His 26 field goals and 58 PATs added up to the second most kicking points in the NFL that year. The Chargers remained in the top ten in kicker scoring the next two years, with 118 points and 10th place ranking in 2007, and 127 points and a 7th place ranking last year. That all adds up to 607 points for Kaeding during his five years in the NFL, most in the league during that span. The same offensive coaches and players are back again in 2009, so odds are that Kaeding can sustain that pace for at least another year.

Player	Sack	FR	INT	TD	Yd/G	Pt/G	FPT	Rank
Philadelphia Eagles	43	14	16	6	297	17.8	212.5	4
Washington Redskins	34	11	15	3	287	17.9	177.5	17

Philadelphia Eagles - The high pressure scheme of Jim Johnson helped the Eagles to perform as one of the most consistent fantasy defenses in the league last season, generating 48 sacks and 29 turnovers, seven combined defensive and special teams touchdowns and solid finishes in points against and yardage allowed. They narrowly edged out Baltimore and Pittsburgh for the top overall finish in the scoring system used for our rankings. The Eagles lost veteran leader Brian Dawkins in free agency, but gained veteran CB Ellis Hobbs in a trade with New England and playmaking safety Sean Jones via free agency. The team returns a talented and deep defensive line, led by Trent Cole, who had 59 solo tackles and nine sacks in 2008. Stewart Bradley and Quentin Mikell will anchor the back seven along with a host of playmakers in the secondary. Expect this defense to again put up a solid number of sacks and takeaways and finish among the Top 10 fantasy units.

Washington Redskins - The value of the Washington defense in your league in 2008 was dependent on scoring system. They were among the best in the league in yardage allowed and points against, likely making them a Top 10 defense in leagues that favored those stats. The Redskins however, managed only 24 sacks, 18 takeaways and one touchdown, landing them among the bottom dwellers in leagues based on big plays. That included our official scoring, in which the Redskins finished 27th overall. Not surprisingly, Washington threw a truckload of money at the problem this offseason by signing DT Albert Haynesworth. Haynesworth will clog the middle on rushing downs and may be asked to draw blockers in the nickel package. His presence should help veteran DE Andre Carter and first-round draft pick Brian Orakpo, who is likely to play SLB on base defensive downs but put his hand down in the nickel. An improved pass rush could send the big play numbers skyrocketing in the back seven, where MLB London Fletcher is an above average zone defender and safeties LaRon Landry and Chris Horton have both shown an ability to generate big plays in coverage. The team's three top cornerbacks, DeAngelo Hall, Carlos Rogers and Fred Smoot are also capable of cashing in on the mistakes of opposing quarterbacks. Despite last season's poor finish in some leagues, don't be afraid to roster Washington as a backup.

Fun facts

In Tomlinson's eight years in the league, he has never finished worse than the 7th ranked RB. Despite a down year in 2008, he still had 292 carries for 1110 yards and 11 TDs. He has never had a season where he didn't reach at least 50 receptions

Randy Moss has reached double-digit TDs in 8 of his 11 seasons, two of which happened when he was in Oakland.

Clinton Portis averaged 5.5 YPC in his two years in Denver, but he has not surpassed 4.3 YPC in any of his four seasons in Washington. Not counting his 2006 season, when he was injured, Portis has never finished a season with less than 1262 yards rushing

Nearly 90% of Marques Colston's production in 2008 came after week eight. If he averaged that the whole season, he would've finished as the 4th best WR in 2008

Kurt Warner had 30 TD passes in 2008. All but one of them were caught by WRs. The lone non WR TD catch was by RB J.J. Arrington.

Jason Witten had nine games of six receptions or more last year. All four of his TDs came at home. Only one was against a division foe

Brandon Marshall is coming off two consecutive years of 100 receptions or more.

Nate Kaeding is the most accurate active kicker at 86.1% on field goals, and is second all-time behind Mike Vanderjagt's 86.5%.

Anzahl Fünf Draft Analysis

Anzahl Fünf Draft Analysis
September 8, 2009

QB: Matt Ryan, Kyle Orton, Matt Cassel
RB: Steve Slaton, Pierre Thomas, Chris Wells, Jonathan Stewart, Ladell Betts
WR: Andre Johnson, Dwayne Bowe, Eddie Royal, Devin Hester, Kevin Curtis
TE: Dustin Keller, Brent Celek
PK: Ryan Longwell
TD: New York Jets, Indianapolis Colts

Overview:

Your receivers are the strongest part of this team. It's rare for us to endorse a team with weaknesses at quarterback and running back, but we're doing it right here! You should have a contender here. But your margin for error in terms of inseason management could be a bit thinner than some of your competitors'. You must remain committed to finding 2009's emergent players at RB and QB.

Players we particularly like on this team include Dwayne Bowe, Eddie Royal, Devin Hester, Brent Celek, and the Colts defense. We have all these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.

Bottom line:

With great inseason management, we think you have about a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With good inseason management, we think you have about a 90 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With average inseason management, we think you have a 83 percent chance of making the playoffs.

n any event, we wish you the best of luck. Here's hoping all your weeks are like week 11 of 2008: Matt Cassel vs. NYJ: 400 passing yards, 62 rushing yards, 3 TD
Steve Slaton vs. IND: 156 combined yards, 1 TD
Pierre Thomas vs. KC: 144 combined yards, 1 TD
Jonathan Stewart vs. DET: 134 combined yards, 1 TD
Dwayne Bowe vs. NO: 53 receiving yards, 2 TD

QB Summary:

We have Matt Ryan rated #10 among quarterbacks, which makes him a viable starter if not an exciting one. And we're not crazy about Kyle Orton (ranked #20 among quarterbacks) as a backup. If Ryan turns in the season we expect, this position won't ruin you, but it probably won't be a strength either. And if things go wrong, it could be a long year at QB.

Incidentally, Orton has what we project as a neutral matchup (DAL) during Ryan's bye.

Matt Cassel is an excellent depth pick, though you may not end up using him much.

RB Summary:

We see both your starters at running back as below average. Our projections have Steve Slaton ranked 12th and Pierre Thomas ranked at #22.

Your bench looks good and should help offset the unexciting starting unit. Chris Wells should be a good third running back. We also very much approve of the selection of Jonathan Stewart, and not just because you can hold the DeAngelo Williams owner hostage. He's a fine fourth running back in his own right.

Ladell Betts is a solid depth pick.

A quick note about the same-team Slaton/Andre Johnson duo you've got here. Though the effect is probably negligible, this kind of pairing is likely to make your team more (not less) consistent than a comparable-scoring different-team pair.

Some of our staffers have Steve Slaton as high as #5, which would make him an above average first running back. "Over 1600 combined yards (268/1282/9 rushing and 50/377/1 receiving) posted by Slaton last year, and his backups are the oft-injured Chris Brown, and some other guys (Ryan Moats, Arian Foster, Jeremiah Johnson). Slaton is one of the few RBs left in the entire league who isn't threatened by a complimentary running back - he should easily top 300 touches on the ball again this year. I think he's got VALUE stamped all over him given how low others are ranking Slaton at the moment. He's looked solid during the preseason, too."

Some members of our staff have Pierre Thomas ranked as high as 15th, which would make him an above average second running back. "Thomas could very easily step in as the Saints go-to RB this year, especially if Reggie Bush's knee doesn't return to form. Even if Bush is 100% healthy, expect plenty of carries from Thomas. If he's still on the board in the late 3rd or later - grab him. "

Some members of our staff have Chris Wells ranked as high as 25th, which would make him an above average third running back. "Chris Wells could very easily be this year's Jonathan Stewart. Some good games here and there, but not the primary ball carrier. Keep in mind, too that Arizona is a pass first, pass second type of team. The running game is just not a staple of their offense."

WR Summary:

Nice work here. We like all your starting receivers, as our projections indicate that they give you a combined 5.3 point-per-game advantage over an average opponent in this league. Andre Johnson is our second ranked WR, Dwayne Bowe is #9, and we have Eddie Royal 17th.

Your bench also looks good. Devin Hester looks great as a fourth receiver. But we are not at all excited about Kevin Curtis as a fifth WR.

Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:

Some members of our staff have Kevin Curtis ranked as high as 42nd, which would make him a great fifth receiver and even a legitimate WR4. "While DeSean Jackson and rookie Jeremy Maclin steal away all the attention in Philly, Kevin Curtis is the forgotten Eagles' receiver. Donovan McNabb won't make that mistake as he often looks to Curtis to move the chains and also to get deep. The Eagles have several good weapons in a potent passing game. As long as Curtis can get and stay healthy (a big if, I understand) he should put up solid fantasy WR3 numbers at worst. "

TE Summary:

Dustin Keller is just OK as a starting tight end (we have him ranked #11). So the selection of Brent Celek, who we see as a solid backup, was wise.

Kicker Summary:

Ryan Longwell, our eighth ranked kicker, won't win the league for you, but he'll do.

Defense Summary:

When you don't have an elite defense, one option is a committee approach. That is, try to get two cheap defenses whose schedules fit well together. And you happen to have done just that. Here is the combined schedule of the Jets and Colts:

HOU | MIA | ARI | SEA | TEN | BUF | OAK | MIA | HOU | JAX | BAL | CAR | TEN | DEN | ATL | NYJ

Schedule Analysis

Green means GO (good matchup), red means STOP (bad matchup). Main starters highlighted

At the bottom of the table, the Relative Strength row shows you how strong we project your team to be, relative to your usual strength, in that week. This accounts for byes and matchups.

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Matt Cassel	BAL	OAK	PHI	NYG	DAL	WAS	SD		JAX	OAK	PIT	SD	DEN	BUF	CLE	CIN
Kyle Orton	CIN	CLE	OAK	DAL	NE	SD		BAL	PIT	WAS	SD	NYG	KC	IND	OAK	PHI
Matt Ryan	MIA	CAR	NE		SF	CHI	DAL	NO	WAS	CAR	NYG	TB	PHI	NO	NYJ	BUF

Ladell Betts	NYG	STL	DET	TB	CAR	KC	PHI		ATL	DEN	DAL	PHI	NO	OAK	NYG	DAL
Steve Slaton	NYJ	TEN	JAX	OAK	ARI	CIN	SF	BUF	IND		TEN	IND	JAX	SEA	STL	MIA
Jonathan Stewart	PHI	ATL	DAL		WAS	TB	BUF	ARI	NO	ATL	MIA	NYJ	TB	NE	MIN	NYG
Pierre Thomas	DET	PHI	BUF	NYJ		NYG	MIA	ATL	CAR	STL	TB	NE	WAS	ATL	DAL	TB
Chris Wells	SF	JAX	IND		HOU	SEA	NYG	CAR	CHI	SEA	STL	TEN	MIN	SF	DET	STL

Dwayne Bowe	BAL	OAK	PHI	NYG	DAL	WAS	SD		JAX	OAK	PIT	SD	DEN	BUF	CLE	CIN
Kevin Curtis	CAR	NO	KC		TB	OAK	WAS	NYG	DAL	SD	CHI	WAS	ATL	NYG	SF	DEN
Devin Hester	GB	PIT	SEA	DET		ATL	CIN	CLE	ARI	SF	PHI	MIN	STL	GB	BAL	MIN
Andre Johnson	NYJ	TEN	JAX	OAK	ARI	CIN	SF	BUF	IND		TEN	IND	JAX	SEA	STL	MIA
Eddie Royal	CIN	CLE	OAK	DAL	NE	SD		BAL	PIT	WAS	SD	NYG	KC	IND	OAK	PHI

Brent Celek	CAR	NO	KC		TB	OAK	WAS	NYG	DAL	SD	CHI	WAS	ATL	NYG	SF	DEN
Dustin Keller	HOU	NE	TEN	NO	MIA	BUF	OAK	MIA		JAX	NE	CAR	BUF	TB	ATL	IND

Ryan Longwell	CLE	DET	SF	GB	STL	BAL	PIT	GB		DET	SEA	CHI	ARI	CIN	CAR	CHI

Indianapolis Colts	JAX	MIA	ARI	SEA	TEN		STL	SF	HOU	NE	BAL	HOU	TEN	DEN	JAX	NYJ
New York Jets	HOU	NE	TEN	NO	MIA	BUF	OAK	MIA		JAX	NE	CAR	BUF	TB	ATL	IND

Relative Strength	102	100	98	97	102	107	100	104	101	91	101	99	98	100	100	100

Schedule and Matchup Notes:

Please note that the Relative strength numbers above account for both byes and matchups.

Remember that you might have starters on bye in a given week, but still have a high relative strength. This could occur because of favorable matchups, or it might be because you are projected to be missing less production than an average opponent will (your opponents have to deal with byes too).

Week 10 presents moderate bye week issues: Steve Slaton and Andre Johnson are not playing, and since only two NFL teams are off that week, your opponent will probably be close to full strength.

Week 4 presents moderate bye week issues: Matt Ryan, Jonathan Stewart, Chris Wells, Kevin Curtis, and Brent Celek are not playing.

Kyle Orton and Eddie Royal are out in week 7, but your opponent will likely have comparable issues with byes.

Dustin Keller, Ryan Longwell, and New York Jets are out in week 9, but your opponent will likely have comparable issues with byes.

In weeks 5, 6, and 8 you'll probably be better off than your opponent, as far as byes are concerned.

Potential Free Agents

QB: Kyle Orton (7), Brett Favre (9), Matt Cassel (8), Chad Pennington (6), Shaun Hill (6), Jake Delhomme (4), JaMarcus Russell (9), Mark Sanchez (9), Kerry Collins (7), Byron Leftwich (8).

TE: Owen Daniels (10), Zach Miller (9), John Carlson (7), Dustin Keller (9), Jeremy Shockey (5), Heath Miller (8), Visanthe Shiancoe (9), Brent Celek (4), Anthony Fasano (6), Vernon Davis (6).

PK: Ryan Longwell (9), Nick Folk (6), Lawrence Tynes (10), Robbie Gould (5), Kris Brown (10), Adam Vinatieri (6), Jeff Reed (8), John Kasay (4), Josh Scobee (7), Joe Nedney (6).

Projections and Player Summaries

Player	Cmp	Att	YD	Y/A	TD	INT	Rsh	YD	TD	FPT	Rank
Matt Ryan	292	464	3517	7.6	22	15	50	105	1	240.3	10
Kyle Orton	293	491	3265	6.6	19	15	31	62	1	208.9	20
Matt Cassel	264	458	2881	6.3	18	14	53	159	2	203.4	22

Matt Cassel - Matt Cassel goes from a perennial playoff team to a team in serious rebuilding mode. The difference will be clear in his statistical production. Without premier weapons surrounding him on offense, it is difficult to imagine him nearing his stats from 2008. Like last season, we could see Cassel get better as the year goes along, but don't expect Cassel to be more than a QB2 in most fantasy leagues.

Kyle Orton - We expect Orton to win the starting job in Denver, although it could take him until the end of training camp to do so. We've seen what Orton can do with average weapons and average protection, so it's not out of the question to expect his numbers to match - or perhaps improve upon - his 2008 performance.

Matt Ryan - Ryan exploded onto the scene last year, leading the Falcons to the playoffs. He had one of the most impressive rookie seasons in history, completing 61 percent of his passes for 3,440 yards and 16 TDs. The team has added Gonzalez at the TE position, boasts Roddy White and Michael Jenkins at WR, and has a good pass-catching back in Jerious Norwood. Ryan has a wide array of targets that should allow him to far exceed last year's 16th-place fantasy ranking.

Player	Rsh	YD	Y/Rsh	TD	Rec	YD	TD	FPT	Rank
Steve Slaton	255	1135	4.5	7	44	321	1	210.6	12
Pierre Thomas	180	819	4.6	8	30	234	1	166.8	22
Chris Wells	200	810	4.0	8	12	77	0	137.7	31
Jonathan Stewart	165	751	4.6	6	14	87	0	121.8	37
Ladell Betts	85	336	4.0	2	26	205	1	82.6	55

Ladell Betts - Ladell Betts should be counted on as Portis' handcuff and is someone you have to target in the event of a major injury to Portis. Absent an injury opportunity, Betts is only worth a roster spot in deeper redraft leagues.

Steve Slaton - With his small stature and sparse track record in the NFL, most fantasy owners will hesitate to spend a first-round pick on Slaton this year, but he should go near the top of round two in most 12-team drafts. He has Top 5 upside and very little downside as long as he stays healthy, as he will be a huge focal point of the Texans’ offense. Consider him even money to finish the season as a fantasy RB1 in 12-team leagues.

Jonathan Stewart - Jonathan Stewart is a great complement to Williams. Stewart was still a marginal fantasy starter despite playing second fiddle in Carolina. And, in basic touchdown leagues Stewart was a gem to have. Given the run-first focus of the Panthers' offense, it seems likely that Stewart will easily be able to post similar numbers during 2009. Remember that the Panthers rushed the ball 504 times last year. That's more than enough work to keep two running backs happy.

Pierre Thomas - Pierre Thomas must have been one happy camper when the Saints didn't draft a running back or add one in free agency. Even sharing time with Bush, Thomas has significant value for fantasy owners and given the injury history of his counterpart, Thomas could be one of the most underrated running backs this season.

Player	Rsh	YD	Rec	YD	Y/Rec	TD	FPT	Rank
Andre Johnson	2	10	100	1400	14.0	9	242.5	2
Dwayne Bowe	0	0	93	1181	12.7	8	212.6	9
Eddie Royal	6	48	79	956	12.1	6	173.4	17
Devin Hester	5	40	62	874	14.1	7	156.9	29
Kevin Curtis	0	0	38	471	12.4	3	81.6	69

Dwayne Bowe - Bowe will be heavily relied on by his new QB Matt Cassel. Bowe is the type of player that will work his tail off for his team, and Cassel should quickly build a bond and a trust with the talented, young receiver.

Kevin Curtis - Kevin Curtis should begin the season as a starter and put up fantasy worthy numbers as a WR3 or utility option, particularly in PPR leagues. Fantasy owners will need to monitor the progress of Jeremy Maclin, who is the future at the position but probably needs some seasoning, meaning Curtis could be a solid buy low candidate. Of course, this assumes Curtis is healthy after another medical procedure in May.

Devin Hester - Having Cutler as quarterback will give Hester no room for excuses. He finally has a top-tier passer, so now he just has to get open. Cutler should be able to find Hester on deep patterns, but the WR will need to develop more as a route-runner if he is to be a viable fantasy starter.

Andre Johnson - Johnson will be one of the first five WRs selected in just about every fantasy draft this season. If he can break the double-digit touchdown barrier, he would be a difference-maker who could carry some fantasy squads by himself.

Eddie Royal - Eddie Royal is a very important piece to the Broncos' offensive puzzle and should finish as a Top 25 fantasy WR in 2009. He's the perfect security blanket for a new QB learning a new system. With his run after the catch ability and soft hands he can rack up yardage - and fantasy points in a hurry.

Player	Rec	YD	Y/Rec	TD	FPT	Rank
Dustin Keller	57	656	11.5	4	118.1	11
Brent Celek	44	480	10.9	4	94.0	15

Brent Celek - It would be shocking to see Brent Celek put up Top 10 fantasy numbers and should be thought of as nothing more than a TE2 in 12-team leagues.

Dustin Keller - Keller should improve on his rookie numbers and could be a Top 10 fantasy TE this year. While he'll likely see more coverage with Coles gone, he'll also see more targets. His athleticism should create mismatches with many defenders, so a significant uptick in productivity isn't out of the question.

Player	FGM	FGA	XPM	XPA	FPT	Rank
Ryan Longwell	30	35	41	41	116.0	8

Ryan Longwell - After numerous top ten finishes in kicker scoring with the Packers, Longwell and the Vikings finished 28th in 2006 with 90 points and 24th in 2007 with 99 points. Then last year Longwell scored 127 points, and the Vikings ranked 7th in kicker scoring for their first top ten appearance in a decade. In 1998, Gary Anderson was the highest scoring kicker in the NFL, not just for that year, but for any year ever. The offensive coaching staff is back for their fourth year. Brian Murphy was promoted from assistant to special teams coordinator. At the end of last year, the Vikings signed Taylor Mehlhaff, whose rookie season with New Orleans was brief and disappointing. He'll get a shot at being a kickoff specialist, although Longwell's improvement to acceptability in that department makes that a long shot. Mehlhaff would need to look like the next Rhys Lloyd in preseason in order to win a roster spot. Last year the team that did well enough to provide Longwell with scoring opportunities, but not well enough to meet overall expectations. The stage appears to be set for another step forward or a big step backwards.

Player	Sack	FR	INT	TD	Yd/G	Pt/G	FPT	Rank
New York Jets	38	12	17	6	306	19.6	193.7	11
Indianapolis Colts	34	12	16	5	311	19.6	181.7	15

Indianapolis Colts - The Colts finished 2008 with the seven rated scoring defense and were No. 6 against the pass. On the other side of that coin was their 24th ranked run defense and middle of the pack numbers in sacks and takeaways. They addressed the rush defense by adding a pair of 300+ pound tackles in the draft. Second-round pick Fili Moala is a high motor guy capable of dominating between the tackles. He should challenge for a starting job or at least see time in the rotation right away. Fourth rounder Terrence Taylor is a fireplug who will likely contribute on short yardage. The other change aimed at stopping the run will be the insertion of 240-pound second-year pro Phillip Wheeler at SLB. Beyond Moala, Wheeler and the return from injury of corner Marlin Jackson, the lineup remains the same. Four defensive scores helped the Colts to finish among the Top 12 fantasy defenses last year, but they lacked consistency. They seem destined for a similar finish in 2009.

New York Jets - New head coach Rex Ryan comes over from the Ravens where he has been the architect of one of the leagues best high pressure defenses. A new coach usually has to make a lot of changes to bring his style of play to a team but the Jets transition won't be so tough. Not only has New York been using a 3-4 for a couple of years, they have had some success with it. The Jets struggled against the pass in 2008 while finishing middle of the pack in yards and points allowed, but they were among the league leaders in big play production. Totals of 41 sacks, 30 takeaways and five defensive touchdowns landed them among the Top 5 fantasy defenses in many scoring systems. When Eric Mangini left he took a handful of players with him, Ryan answered by bringing some of his players over from Baltimore. Free agents Bart Scott at ILB, Marques Douglas at DE and safety Jim Leonhard will all step right in as starters. Add former Eagle corner Lito Sheppard and the Jets not only filled the holes but probably improved the overall talent. Offense got the attention on draft day, but this is a solid unit. Expect another Top 10 finish.

Fun facts

Andre Johnson has never had more than 8 TDs in a season in his career, but he is coming off a career year that saw him finish as the 2nd ranked WR last year. 76 of his 115 catches in 2008 occurred at home

Steve Slaton reached at least 100 yards rushing in four of the last seven games in 2008. From week 11 on, he amassed 737 yards rushing, 4th most in the league.

Dwayne Bowe had nine games with 10+ targets last year - and that's with Tony Gonzalez on the team, who is now with Atlanta

Pierre Thomas was third behind DeAngelo Williams and Michael Turner in total fantasy points (standard scoring) for RBs in the last seven games of the 2008 season. In that span he averaged 20.3 FP/gm

Eddie Royal finished his rookie year in 2008 with 91 receptions. That ranks #2 on the alltime list of receptions for a rookie, trailing only Anquan Boldin's 101 in 2003. Royal had five receptions or more in 11 of the 15 games he played in

Matt Ryan's first and last plays in the 2008 season were TD passes

Jonathan Stewart was one of four RBs to score ten rushing TDs in 2008 with less than 200 carries. The others - Maurice Jones-Drew, LenDale White and Tim Hightower

Last year, Ryan Longwell had six 50+ yard attempts, the most of his career, and he made every one of them.

BANGER9 Draft Analysis

BANGER9 Draft Analysis
September 8, 2009

QB: Eli Manning, Joe Flacco
RB: Adrian Peterson, Brandon Jacobs, Donald Brown, Fred Taylor
WR: Steve Smith, Anthony Gonzalez, Donnie Avery, Josh Morgan, Michael Jenkins, Muhsin Muhammad, Mark Clayton
TE: Antonio Gates, Tony Scheffler
PK: Stephen Gostkowski
TD: Pittsburgh Steelers, San Diego Chargers

Overview:

So although this team isn't perfect (few are), it should still be a strong contender.

Players we particularly like on this team include Steve Smith, Donnie Avery, Fred Taylor, Anthony Gonzalez, Michael Jenkins, Brandon Jacobs, Joe Flacco, Josh Morgan, Muhsin Muhammad, and the Chargers defense. We have all these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.

Bottom line:

With great inseason management, we think you have about a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With good inseason management, we think you have about a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With average inseason management, we think you have a 90 percent chance of making the playoffs.

In any event, we wish you the best of luck. Here's hoping all your weeks are like week 14 of 2006: Antonio Gates vs. DEN: 104 receiving yards, 2 TD
Fred Taylor vs. IND: 131 combined yards, 1 TD
Tony Scheffler vs. SD: 66 receiving yards, 2 TD
Mark Clayton vs. KC: 112 receiving yards, 1 TD

QB Summary:

We have Eli Manning rated #17 among quarterbacks, so we're not even sold on him as a fantasy starter in your league. But #18-rated QB Joe Flacco provides you with another viable option. So while the position doesn't figure to be a strength, with shrewd management and a little luck you might end up with decent production at QB

Incidentally, these two have a terrific combined schedule and a decent playoff schedule too. If you simply played the one with the better matchup each week, this is the schedule you'd face:

WAS | SD | CLE | NE | CIN | MIN | ARI | DEN | CIN | CLE | ATL | DEN | GB | DET | WAS | CAR

A quick note about the same-team Manning/Brandon Jacobs duo you've got here. Though the effect is probably negligible, this kind of pairing is likely to make your team more (not less) consistent than a comparable-scoring different-team pair. See this article (which was written before the 2008 season) for more discussion.

RB Summary:

Nice work here. We like both your starting running backs, as our projections indicate that they give you a combined 3.6 point-per-game advantage over an average opponent in this league. Our projections have Adrian Peterson ranked first and Brandon Jacobs ranked at #10.

Donald Brown should be a good third running back. Fred Taylor should also be solidly above average at RB4.

WR Summary:

Nice work here. We like all your starting receivers. Steve Smith is our #5 ranked receiver, Anthony Gonzalez is #16, and we have Donnie Avery 26th.

Your bench also looks good. Josh Morgan should serve as a very solid fourth receiver. Likewise, Michael Jenkins should be excellent at WR5.

Since you're strong at the position, you probably don't absolutely need to roster more than five players here. Of your remaining guys, we like Muhsin Muhammad the best, but you should keep the one you think has the best chance of putting up starter numbers. The rest might be considered expendable if you find you need roster space elsewhere.

TE Summary:

As you are well aware, Antonio Gates is an elite tight end. We have him ranked second overall at the position. He's about 1.2 points per game better than an average starting TE in this league. Tony Scheffler is an adequate second tight end.

Kicker Summary:

At about 1.0 points per game above average, Stephen Gostkowski is our first ranked kicker, so you're set here.

Defense Summary:

Between the Steelers and the Chargers, you should get above average production here.

Schedule Analysis

Green means GO (good matchup), red means STOP (bad matchup). Main starters highlighted

At the bottom of the table, the Relative Strength row shows you how strong we project your team to be, relative to your usual strength, in that week. This accounts for byes and matchups.

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Joe Flacco	KC	SD	CLE	NE	CIN	MIN		DEN	CIN	CLE	IND	PIT	GB	DET	CHI	PIT
Eli Manning	WAS	DAL	TB	KC	OAK	NO	ARI	PHI	SD		ATL	DEN	DAL	PHI	WAS	CAR

Donald Brown	JAX	MIA	ARI	SEA	TEN		STL	SF	HOU	NE	BAL	HOU	TEN	DEN	JAX	NYJ
Brandon Jacobs	WAS	DAL	TB	KC	OAK	NO	ARI	PHI	SD		ATL	DEN	DAL	PHI	WAS	CAR
Adrian Peterson	CLE	DET	SF	GB	STL	BAL	PIT	GB		DET	SEA	CHI	ARI	CIN	CAR	CHI
Fred Taylor	BUF	NYJ	ATL	BAL	DEN	TEN	TB		MIA	IND	NYJ	NO	MIA	CAR	BUF	JAX

Donnie Avery	SEA	WAS	GB	SF	MIN	JAX	IND	DET		NO	ARI	SEA	CHI	TEN	HOU	ARI
Mark Clayton	KC	SD	CLE	NE	CIN	MIN		DEN	CIN	CLE	IND	PIT	GB	DET	CHI	PIT
Anthony Gonzalez	JAX	MIA	ARI	SEA	TEN		STL	SF	HOU	NE	BAL	HOU	TEN	DEN	JAX	NYJ
Michael Jenkins	MIA	CAR	NE		SF	CHI	DAL	NO	WAS	CAR	NYG	TB	PHI	NO	NYJ	BUF
Josh Morgan	ARI	SEA	MIN	STL	ATL		HOU	IND	TEN	CHI	GB	JAX	SEA	ARI	PHI	DET
Muhsin Muhammad	PHI	ATL	DAL		WAS	TB	BUF	ARI	NO	ATL	MIA	NYJ	TB	NE	MIN	NYG
Steve Smith	PHI	ATL	DAL		WAS	TB	BUF	ARI	NO	ATL	MIA	NYJ	TB	NE	MIN	NYG

Antonio Gates	OAK	BAL	MIA	PIT		DEN	KC	OAK	NYG	PHI	DEN	KC	CLE	DAL	CIN	TEN
Tony Scheffler	CIN	CLE	OAK	DAL	NE	SD		BAL	PIT	WAS	SD	NYG	KC	IND	OAK	PHI

Stephen Gostkowski	BUF	NYJ	ATL	BAL	DEN	TEN	TB		MIA	IND	NYJ	NO	MIA	CAR	BUF	JAX

Pittsburgh Steelers	TEN	CHI	CIN	SD	DET	CLE	MIN		DEN	CIN	KC	BAL	OAK	CLE	GB	BAL
San Diego Chargers	OAK	BAL	MIA	PIT		DEN	KC	OAK	NYG	PHI	DEN	KC	CLE	DAL	CIN	TEN

Relative Strength	99	100	101	100	108	96	103	103	97	93	102	99	100	100	101	101

Schedule and Matchup Notes:

Please note that the Relative strength numbers above account for both byes and matchups.

Remember that you might have starters on bye in a given week, but still have a high relative strength. This could occur because of favorable matchups, or it might be because you are projected to be missing less production than an average opponent will (your opponents have to deal with byes too).

Week 10 presents moderate bye week issues: Eli Manning and Brandon Jacobs are not playing, and since only two NFL teams are off that week, your opponent will probably be close to full strength.

Week 9 presents moderate bye week issues: Adrian Peterson and Donnie Avery are not playing.

Donald Brown, Anthony Gonzalez, and Josh Morgan are out in week 6, but your opponent will likely have comparable issues with byes.

Michael Jenkins, Muhsin Muhammad, and Steve Smith are out in week 4, but your opponent will likely have comparable issues with byes.

In weeks 5, 7, and 8 you'll probably be better off than your opponent, as far as byes are concerned.

Potential Free Agents

QB: we don't necessarily recommend any roster moves here.

RB: we don't necessarily recommend any roster moves here.

WR: Mark Clayton (7), Mark Bradley (8), Hakeem Nicks (10), Robert Meachem (5), Greg Camarillo (6), Michael Clayton (8), Troy Williamson (7), Bobby Engram (8), Bryant Johnson (7), Joey Galloway (8).

PK: we don't necessarily recommend any roster moves here.

TD: we don't necessarily recommend any roster moves here.

Projections and Player Summaries

Player	Cmp	Att	YD	Y/A	TD	INT	Rsh	YD	TD	FPT	Rank
Eli Manning	297	505	3257	6.4	21	15	20	17	1	217.1	17
Joe Flacco	266	442	2864	6.5	19	13	55	176	2	215.3	18

Joe Flacco - The training wheels should come off in 2009 as the Ravens look to find out if Flacco can join the ranks of the elite in Year 2. He'll likely be given a bit more freedom within the offense, as he showed signs of that a year ago. His counting numbers (yards, touchdowns) should increase as the team takes to the air a bit more. It wouldn't be surprising in the least to see him enjoy a Ben Roethlisberger type arc to his career, but expectations must be tempered unless the Ravens acquire a proven veteran receiver soon. Derrick Mason's retirement completely changes the tenor of an already shallow receiving corps.

Eli Manning - Manning has the experience and track record to comfortably expect Top 12 to 15 numbers at the worst. The question fantasy owners must ask themselves is whether the youth movement at WR can overcome the loss of Burress and whether any of that matters in December. Manning should be viewed as an excellent QB2 because he could put up QB1 numbers in any given week, but don't reach for him expecting QB1 production.

Player	Rsh	YD	Y/Rsh	TD	Rec	YD	TD	FPT	Rank
Adrian Peterson	315	1518	4.8	13	24	166	1	256.9	1
Brandon Jacobs	255	1186	4.7	12	18	117	1	212.3	10
Donald Brown	175	700	4.0	6	23	166	1	135.1	32
Fred Taylor	180	774	4.3	5	13	91	0	120.5	38

Donald Brown - Brown will be expected to contribute right away in the high-powered Colts' offense. The question is whether he'll (a) take over the lead role by midseason, as some people expect, (b) split the workload with Addai in an even rotation, or (c) play a complementary role as a rookie while Addai gets 65 percent to 70 percent of the work. With all three scenarios in play, opinion on Brown may not reach a general consensus, and you can expect to see his draft position vary quite a bit from league to league.

Brandon Jacobs - As long as you're comfortable using a high draft pick on someone who probably will miss a few games, Jacobs is an attractive option as your RB1 and would be a dream option as an RB2 should he fall into the early second round. It's always tough to count on a runner replicating double-digit TDs, but Jacobs is a great short-yardage back and he should get more touches this year with Ward in Tampa Bay.

Adrian Peterson - Entering into his third season, Peterson is poised to become the elite running back that fantasy owners have been waiting for over the past two seasons. He has been on the verge over his first two seasons, finishing as the third-best fantasy back in each of those two seasons. However, with improved offensive line and quarterback play this season, Peterson has a real opportunity for a magical season.

Fred Taylor - Taylor landed in a good spot after being shown the door in Jacksonville. The Patriots will likely use a rotation of backs or substitute players based on game situations and field position. Taylor probably won't see more than 10 or 12 carries a game (and not near the goal line) unless the other backs can't go for some reason. He should play a role, but he probably won't be a centerpiece any longer.

Player	Rsh	YD	Rec	YD	Y/Rec	TD	FPT	Rank
Steve Smith	5	35	88	1285	14.6	8	221.5	5
Anthony Gonzalez	0	0	74	969	13.1	7	175.9	16
Donnie Avery	7	46	66	857	13.0	6	159.3	26
Josh Morgan	1	5	53	731	13.8	5	130.1	41
Michael Jenkins	1	5	49	666	13.6	4	115.6	46
Muhsin Muhammad	0	0	46	621	13.5	4	109.1	50
Mark Clayton	3	20	40	559	14.0	3	95.9	56

Donnie Avery - Avery is a high-upside, high-risk player. He has the speed and ability to make big plays, and is a threat to score from anywhere on the field, but he is young and inconsistent, and in an offense that may struggle to find its bearings. Avery should not be counted on as a starter, but after WR30, his upside potential makes him an attractive fantasy prospect.

Mark Clayton - The Ravens ignored wide receiver in free agency and the draft, and then Derrick Mason retired, so Mark Clayton has never had a bigger opportunity to elevate his game and prove he can be a true #1 receiver. Yet, it's getting awfully difficult to trust him to do just that. His starting spot is secure, but Clayton may have a difficult time making plays consistently now that he'll be matched up against opposing teams' top cornerbacks. His fantasy stock has never had more upside, but we can't rule out the possibility Baltimore will move to acquire a veteran before the start of camp given Mason's surprising retirement.

Anthony Gonzalez - While Gonzalez has Top 20 potential at his position, he is more likely to finish as a WR3 in terms of his fantasy prospects. Reggie Wayne is still the main receiver in Indy, and Gonzalez will play a complimentary role in an offense that, while still formidable, is not as high-flying as it was five years ago.

Michael Jenkins - Michael Jenkins was a lot more productive during 2008 than he was in 2007, going from 10 yards per reception to 15.5 per grab - his best mark over the past four years. He posted just one "goose-egg" all year (Week 2, vs. TB), and was usually in the 50-70 yards receiving neighborhood during the other games in which he played. Jenkins isn't a starting-caliber fantasy wideout entering 2009, but he should be a useful guy to have on your bench for bye-weeks or in case of injury among your Top 3 players at the position.

Josh Morgan - Josh Morgan started the 2008 season as one of the more hyped rookies. Not bad for a sixth rounder who wasn't expected to contribute much when he was drafted. Morgan was starting to develop nicely when an injury in Week 10 put him out for the next five weeks. Despite performing well in the final two games of the season, it remains to be seen whether Morgan will improve and establish himself as a complement to the expected stardom of Michael Crabtree.

Muhsin Muhammad - Muhsin Muhammad proved critics wrong last year and re-joined the ranks of fantasy-worthy starters as he almost finished as starter among fantasy wide receivers. This year, he will again be the complement to Steve Smith. Muhammad will never repeat his dynamic 2004 campaign, but he'll be a solid reserve fantasy wide out if nothing goes wrong for him health-wise.

Steve Smith - Steve Smith is a fantasy favorite, with an astonishing 18.2 yards-per-reception average last season in route to a Top 5 fantasy finish. He went over 100 yards receiving during eight games last year and just missed in two other weeks (96 yards and a TD in Week 5 and 96 yards receiving in Week 6).

Player	Rec	YD	Y/Rec	TD	FPT	Rank
Antonio Gates	65	806	12.4	7	152.6	2
Tony Scheffler	40	488	12.2	3	84.3	19

Antonio Gates - Gates is coming off a season marred by injury from beginning to end, but still managed to finish as the No. 4 fantasy tight end. It's impossible not to consider him a Top 3 TE if he's healthy. His toe is worth keeping tabs on throughout training camp, but he's expected to be at full speed by the start of camp.

Tony Scheffler - Scheffler needs to stay healthy to endear himself to the new regime in Denver. The system may limit his production, and if so, Scheffler owners could be in for a long season. All things considered, it is difficult to imagine him matching last year's numbers.

Player	FGM	FGA	XPM	XPA	FPT	Rank
Stephen Gostkowski	34	40	51	51	136.0	1

Stephen Gostkowski - The Patriots finished 19th in kicker scoring in both 2005 and 2006, after having been first in 2004. In 2007 they jumped back up to 2nd thanks to their ridiculous number of touchdowns. Last year they again ranked 2nd, thanks to a large (although not ridiculous) number of field goals. They once again scored 100+ kicking points. The last time they failed to do so was 1995. Gostkowski, the young solid kicker, is back this year. Matt Cassel is gone, but Tom Brady could be a decent quarterback. The same coaching staff that loves to win and usually does is back this year, minus offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. The Patriots back-to-back top fives in kicker scoring is uncommon. Over the past two decades it happened only 17 times previously. How did those teams fare in the year afterwards? Six remained in the top five, six dropped into the 6th to 10th range, and five dropped out of the top ten.

Player	Sack	FR	INT	TD	Yd/G	Pt/G	FPT	Rank
Pittsburgh Steelers	48	13	18	5	267	16.6	219.3	2
San Diego Chargers	45	13	20	5	312	18.8	208.6	5

Pittsburgh Steelers - Pittsburgh is the birth place of the 3-4 zone blitz defense. It's an aggressive attacking style of play which at its best, forces offenses to react to the defensive scheme rather than the other way around. By its design the zone blitz is meant to create a lot of big plays. Thus over the years the Steelers have been one of the most consistently productive options in the fantasy game. The 2008 season was no exception as Pittsburgh sported defensive player of the year James Harrison, and was once again among the Top 3 fantasy defenses in any scoring system. It's hard to beat a unit that finishes first in yards, scoring and pass defense while coming in second versus the run, recording 51 sacks, 29 takeaway and three defensive scores. There were no immediate impact additions over the offseason, but every starter is returning except ILB Larry Foote. That change only happened because Lawrence Timmons is an upgrade. Some will make an argument for Baltimore as the first defense off the board but the Steelers have more depth and are a can't-miss option.

San Diego Chargers - The Chargers entered last season with grand expectations but their season began to unravel right out of the gate. They were without their best ILB Stephen Cooper for the first four games and were never able to recover from the loss of Shawne Merriman in Week 1. The end result was a very forgettable season in which San Diego posted lousy numbers across the board. Merriman returns from the knee injury and the club used their first round pick on Larry English to help insure that they won't have a repeat. English will compete with Shaun Phillips for playing time at OLB opposite Merriman and gives the club some much needed depth in case there is a setback. The other important offseason additions are free agent ILB Kevin Burnett and DE Vaughn Martin, whom they selected in the fourth round. Burnett will likely start alongside Cooper and provide a significant upgrade while the 330+ pound Martin will contend for playing time at DE this season. (He could also play some nose tackle down the road.) Last year's starting strong safety Clinton Hart will be pushed by rookie sixth-round pick Kevin Ellison. This is a much better club than last year's numbers would suggest.

Fun facts

Adrian Peterson had 10 games in 2008 where he rushed for 100 yards or more. This year the Vikings schedule is even more inviting.

Brandon Jacobs had multiple TD games in 5 of the 13 regular season games he appeared in last year

Last year Steve Smith finished with 18.2 yards per catch - a full 6.7 yards more than the year prior. His previous high was 15.2 in 2005 when he finished as the #1 ranked fantasy WR.

Last year Antonio Gates struggled with injuries and still managed to finish as the 4th ranked TE. He has not finished a season with less than 8 TDs since his rookie year

Stephen Gostkowski has the highest career field goal percentage in Patriot's history.

Hell's Grannies Draft Analysis

Hell's Grannies Draft Analysis
September 8, 2009

QB: Donovan McNabb, Jason Campbell
RB: Maurice Jones-Drew, Ryan Grant, Joseph Addai, Mewelde Moore, Sammy Morris
WR: Vincent Jackson, Laveranues Coles, Derrick Mason, Percy Harvin, Isaac Bruce, Robert Meachem, Louis Murphy
TE: Owen Daniels
PK: Kris Brown
TD: Miami Dolphins

Overview:

Let's start by remarking that we appreciate your old-school leanings: you have a team marked by strength at the running back position. Because the position is so sought after, a team constructed like this usually has a chance to make the playoffs. But with the quarterback and wide receiver both being less strong, you may need to do something to change the outlook of this team. Your deficiencies are likely to show themselves through the bye weeks, so try to manuever early in improving the quarterback and/or receiver positions before week four.

Last year, quarterbacks like Matt Cassel, Tyler Thigpen, Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco likely went undrafted. Even Kurt Warner wasn't drafted in early leagues. Similarly, wide receivers like Kevin Walter, Eddie Royal, Steve Breaston, DeSean Jackson, Ted Ginn and Mark Clayton were available after a lot of the drafts. Landing some of this year's top waiver players would be a huge help, so pay close attention to increased workloads, targets, injuries, etc.

Players we particularly like on this team include Jason Campbell, Maurice Jones-Drew, Robert Meachem, and Isaac Bruce. We have all these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.

Bottom line:

With great inseason management, we think you have about a 75 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With good inseason management, we think you have about a 60 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With average inseason management, we think you have a 44 percent chance of making the playoffs.

In any event, we wish you the best of luck. Here's hoping all your weeks are like week 7 of 2008: Mewelde Moore vs. CIN: 134 combined yards, 3 TD
Sammy Morris vs. DEN: 138 combined yards, 1 TD
Owen Daniels vs. DET: 66 receiving yards, 2 TD
Ryan Grant vs. IND: 117 combined yards, 1 TD

QB Summary:

We expect Donovan McNabb to be a solid starter. According to our projections, he's the #6 QB, so you should be better off than most teams in the starting quarterback slot.

Jason Campbell, who we have rated as the #14 QB, is a nice backup and could conceivably emerge as either a starter for your team or, if McNabb plays as expected, some tempting trade bait for teams with quarterback troubles.

Incidentally, Campbell has what we project as a bad matchup (TB) during McNabb's bye.

RB Summary:

Nice work here. We like both your starting running backs, as our projections indicate that they give you a combined 1.6 point-per-game advantage over an average opponent in this league. Our projections have Maurice Jones-Drew ranked second and Ryan Grant ranked 18th.

Your bench also looks good. Joseph Addai looks great as a third running back. But we are not at all excited about Mewelde Moore as a fourth RB.

We're not sure that Sammy Morris adds much, as you're already strong at the position and we aren't convinced he's roster-worthy in this league anyway.

WR Summary:

We see all your starters at receiver as below average. Vincent Jackson is our #20 ranked receiver, Laveranues Coles is #34, and we have Derrick Mason 37th.

Your bench looks good and should help offset the unexciting starting unit. We see Percy Harvin as an average fourth receiver. Isaac Bruce is an excellent WR5.

Though some teams will probably be content to roster as few as five players here, it was not a bad idea to take a few extras because you're not particularly strong overall at the position. Of your remaining guys, we like Robert Meachem the best, but you should keep the one you think has the best chance of putting up starter numbers. The rest might be considered expendable if you find you need roster space elsewhere.

Some of our staffers have Laveranues Coles as high as #20, which would make him a fine second receiver."Coles played several years with average at best QB play. Now he moves to the Bengals and if Carson Palmer is healthy, Coles should provide a solid #2 WR to Chad Ochocinco. I don't think Coles will match Houshmandzadeh's past numbers, but he should still be a solid WR2 and one of the best values in the draft. "

Some members of our staff have Derrick Mason ranked as high as 24th, which would make him a great third receiver and even a legitimate WR2. "Mason's flirtation with retirement and advancing age have fantasy owners delusional. He's healthy, re-committed, and is the ONLY option in that WR corps Joe Flacco can rely upon. He's going to catch 80-90 receptions in his sleep."

TE Summary:

Owen Daniels, who we have ranked #8, is below average but probably adequate as a starting tight end. You might get by with only Daniels, but some additional help here probably wouldn't hurt.

Some members of our staff have Owen Daniels ranked as high as fourth, which would make him an above average first tight end. "Daniels may not have the eye-popping athleticism of Andre Johnson, but he's sure handed, runs precise routes and is the man who bails out Matt Schaub when the deep routes are covered. He's one of the best TEs in the league that no one talks about."

Kicker Summary:

Kris Brown, our 12th ranked kicker, is below average but probably adequate.

Defense Summary:

When you don't have an elite defense, one option is a committee approach. That is, try to get two cheap defenses whose schedules fit well together. Here are a few teams who we think may be available and whose schedules fit best with the Dolphins', along with the combined schedule that each would create:

Dolphins + Redskins   =   NYG | STL | DET | BUF | NYJ | KC | NO | NYJ | ATL | DEN | CAR | BUF | NO | OAK | TEN | HOU
Dolphins + Seahawks   =   STL | SF | CHI | BUF | NYJ | ARI | NO | NYJ | DET | ARI | CAR | STL | SF | HOU | TEN | HOU
Dolphins + Texans   =   NYJ | TEN | SD | OAK | ARI | CIN | SF | BUF | IND | TB | TEN | BUF | JAX | SEA | TEN | MIA

Schedule Analysis

Green means GO (good matchup), red means STOP (bad matchup). Main starters highlighted

At the bottom of the table, the Relative Strength row shows you how strong we project your team to be, relative to your usual strength, in that week. This accounts for byes and matchups.

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Jason Campbell	NYG	STL	DET	TB	CAR	KC	PHI		ATL	DEN	DAL	PHI	NO	OAK	NYG	DAL
Donovan McNabb	CAR	NO	KC		TB	OAK	WAS	NYG	DAL	SD	CHI	WAS	ATL	NYG	SF	DEN

Joseph Addai	JAX	MIA	ARI	SEA	TEN		STL	SF	HOU	NE	BAL	HOU	TEN	DEN	JAX	NYJ
Maurice Jones-Drew	IND	ARI	HOU	TEN	SEA	STL		TEN	KC	NYJ	BUF	SF	HOU	MIA	IND	NE
Ryan Grant	CHI	CIN	STL	MIN		DET	CLE	MIN	TB	DAL	SF	DET	BAL	CHI	PIT	SEA
Mewelde Moore	TEN	CHI	CIN	SD	DET	CLE	MIN		DEN	CIN	KC	BAL	OAK	CLE	GB	BAL
Sammy Morris	BUF	NYJ	ATL	BAL	DEN	TEN	TB		MIA	IND	NYJ	NO	MIA	CAR	BUF	JAX

Isaac Bruce	ARI	SEA	MIN	STL	ATL		HOU	IND	TEN	CHI	GB	JAX	SEA	ARI	PHI	DET
Laveranues Coles	DEN	GB	PIT	CLE	BAL	HOU	CHI		BAL	PIT	OAK	CLE	DET	MIN	SD	KC
Percy Harvin	CLE	DET	SF	GB	STL	BAL	PIT	GB		DET	SEA	CHI	ARI	CIN	CAR	CHI
Vincent Jackson	OAK	BAL	MIA	PIT		DEN	KC	OAK	NYG	PHI	DEN	KC	CLE	DAL	CIN	TEN
Derrick Mason	KC	SD	CLE	NE	CIN	MIN		DEN	CIN	CLE	IND	PIT	GB	DET	CHI	PIT
Robert Meachem	DET	PHI	BUF	NYJ		NYG	MIA	ATL	CAR	STL	TB	NE	WAS	ATL	DAL	TB
Louis Murphy	SD	KC	DEN	HOU	NYG	PHI	NYJ	SD		KC	CIN	DAL	PIT	WAS	DEN	CLE

Owen Daniels	NYJ	TEN	JAX	OAK	ARI	CIN	SF	BUF	IND		TEN	IND	JAX	SEA	STL	MIA

Kris Brown	NYJ	TEN	JAX	OAK	ARI	CIN	SF	BUF	IND		TEN	IND	JAX	SEA	STL	MIA

Miami Dolphins	ATL	IND	SD	BUF	NYJ		NO	NYJ	NE	TB	CAR	BUF	NE	JAX	TEN	HOU

Relative Strength	100	100	103	100	100	103	95	99	106	99	99	101	102	102	99	100

Schedule and Matchup Notes:

Please note that the Relative strength numbers above account for both byes and matchups.

Remember that you might have starters on bye in a given week, but still have a high relative strength. This could occur because of favorable matchups, or it might be because you are projected to be missing less production than an average opponent will (your opponents have to deal with byes too).

Week 7 presents moderate bye week issues: Maurice Jones-Drew and Derrick Mason are not playing.

Owen Daniels and Kris Brown are out in week 10, but your opponent will likely have comparable issues with byes.

Ryan Grant, Vincent Jackson, and Robert Meachem are out in week 5, but your opponent will likely have comparable issues with byes.

Donovan McNabb is out in week 4, but your opponent will likely have comparable issues with byes.

Jason Campbell, Mewelde Moore, Sammy Morris, and Laveranues Coles are out in week 8, but your opponent will likely have comparable issues with byes.

Joseph Addai, Isaac Bruce, and Miami Dolphins are out in week 6, but your opponent will likely have comparable issues with byes.

In week 9 you're probably going to be in better shape, bye-wise than your opponent.

Potential Free Agents

QB: we don't necessarily recommend any roster moves here.

WR: Mark Clayton (7), Mark Bradley (8), Hakeem Nicks (10), Robert Meachem (5), Greg Camarillo (6), Michael Clayton (8), Troy Williamson (7), Bobby Engram (8), Bryant Johnson (7), Joey Galloway (8), Malcolm Kelly (8), Patrick Crayton (6), Deon Butler (7), Kevin Curtis (4), Chansi Stuckey (9), Mike Walker (7), Limas Sweed (8), Jeremy Maclin (4), Jason Avant (4). We have all these players rated ahead of Louis Murphy.

TE: Owen Daniels (10), Zach Miller (9), John Carlson (7), Dustin Keller (9), Jeremy Shockey (5), Heath Miller (8), Visanthe Shiancoe (9), Brent Celek (4), Anthony Fasano (6), Vernon Davis (6).

PK: Ryan Longwell (9), Nick Folk (6), Lawrence Tynes (10), Robbie Gould (5), Kris Brown (10), Adam Vinatieri (6), Jeff Reed (8), John Kasay (4), Josh Scobee (7), Joe Nedney (6).

TD: Chicago Bears (5), New England Patriots (8), Green Bay Packers (5), New York Jets (9), Buffalo Bills (9), Seattle Seahawks (7), Miami Dolphins (6), Indianapolis Colts (6), Dallas Cowboys (6), Washington Redskins (8).

Projections and Player Summaries

Player	Cmp	Att	YD	Y/A	TD	INT	Rsh	YD	TD	FPT	Rank
Donovan McNabb	312	520	3510	6.8	23	15	42	172	2	254.2	6
Jason Campbell	287	475	3154	6.6	18	10	40	200	1	225.7	14

Jason Campbell - Campbell is a difficult player to project this year. Realistically, neither Todd Collins nor Colt Brennan should threaten his playing time. But then again, coaches can make surprising decisions particularly if management doesn't feel Campbell has a long-term future in Washington. The real key for Campbell will be whether his supporting cast develops.

Donovan McNabb - It's interesting that McNabb enjoyed his best season in five years last year, considering he was benched midway through the Ravens game and could conceivably have been done as the Eagles starter had Kevin Kolb played better. But that's ancient history now and McNabb is healthy, happy, and has the deepest collection of offensive weapons in his career. As long as the rebuilt offensive line gels quickly, there is no reason to expect anything less than a Top 10 fantasy season with the potential for more.

Player	Rsh	YD	Y/Rsh	TD	Rec	YD	TD	FPT	Rank
Maurice Jones-Drew	220	1012	4.6	11	55	462	3	251.4	2
Ryan Grant	295	1210	4.1	8	21	137	0	185.7	18
Joseph Addai	200	780	3.9	7	35	270	2	169.0	21
Mewelde Moore	50	205	4.1	1	36	274	1	77.9	57
Sammy Morris	55	237	4.3	3	6	44	0	46.6	74

Joseph Addai - Addai and Brown will most likely share the workload during the regular season, keeping each other fresh for the playoffs. While the Colts offense is expected to put up, once again, way more than its fair share of yards and points, it will need to be consistently solid to make Addai anything more than a fantasy backup.

Maurice Jones-Drew - The Jaguars' running game hit a road bump last season with all the injuries they suffered along the offensive line. While Jones-Drew still averaged a respectable 4.2 yards per carry that was nearly a full yard below his previous pace. With a rejuvenated offensive line, expect the Jaguars' running game to bounce back; and with Taylor gone, expect Jones-Drew to play a bigger role and projects for a Top 5 finish.

Ryan Grant - The Packers offensive line is solid, the passing game is terrific and the rushing attack should be better than last year. There is no reason for Grant not to increase last season's poor yard-per-carry average this season, and his offense should afford him numerous scoring chances.

Mewelde Moore - There is a good chance that Mewelde Moore could once again lead the Steelers RBs in fantasy points scored. He is a dynamic receiver, an effective runner, and instantly makes an impact when he comes into the game. However, Moore is a player that may be best used in a limited role and the Steelers could have a three- or four-headed RBBC in 2009.

Sammy Morris - Sammy Morris may end up the best value of the Patriots RBs and the last one drafted. He could produce as a borderline Top 25 running back (if he plays each week) but may be had as the 50th back off the draft board. If he stays healthy, he could score 10+ touchdowns this season. That said, this is a very crowded backfield and Fred Taylor and Laurence Maroney are better bets to carry the load.

Player	Rsh	YD	TD	Rec	YD	Y/Rec	TD	FPT	Rank
Vincent Jackson	4	28	0	62	930	15.0	7	168.8	20
Laveranues Coles	2	10	0	67	811	12.1	5	143.1	34
Derrick Mason	0	0	0	63	706	11.2	5	132.1	37
Percy Harvin	25	138	1	39	495	12.7	4	112.8	48
Isaac Bruce	1	5	0	43	538	12.5	4	99.8	53
Robert Meachem	1	6	0	37	503	13.6	4	93.4	59
Louis Murphy	1	5	0	10	125	12.5	0	18.0	137

Isaac Bruce - At one stage during the offseason it looked like Isaac Bruce would retire, but he was coaxed back for another year. This year however he'll have a group of younger guys looking for more opportunities and the drafting of Michael Crabtree in particular is ominous for a guy who will be 37 this year. With free agent signings, a first-round draft pick and developing youngsters it is hard to see Bruce being much of a fantasy consideration.

Laveranues Coles - With a renewed running game, taking advantage of a retooled offensive line, it's possible that Coles hit the jackpot by coming to Cincinnati. Expect another Top 30 performance from Coles, as he benefits from Chad Ochocinco taking all of the coverage to his side of the field.

Percy Harvin - The Vikings made a great first round choice this year when they took Percy Harvin. Defenses are not going to be able to key on him, and he is so fast out of the blocks that he should be able to get past most defenders. He is going to be a hybrid of sorts for the Vikings, likely lining up both in the backfield and in the slot, and he should finish the season with at least 80 total touches.

Vincent Jackson - It appears that Jackson has established himself as the Chargers' top WR, but he is probably a slight underdog to break the 1,000-yard mark again. He should roughly match his seven TDs from last season, and be a WR2 (or very strong WR3) in 12-team fantasy leagues.

Derrick Mason - Mason was a solid bet to lead the Ravens in receiving again but recovering from offseason surgery and the prospect of another season of pounding at 35 years old was too much for him. The accomplished veteran has decided to retire.

Louis Murphy - Being a Florida WR means that you must possess great speed and Murphy fits that bill. His long arms give him a huge catch radius and he does a good job gathering the ball whether it's on target or not. Once into his route he effectively uses shoulder fakes to get open. Murphy needs to work on his run blocking and play a more physical game. He may not put up many stats for the Raiders in 2009, but they expect him to develop into a starter opposite DHB in the near future.

Player	Rec	YD	Y/Rec	TD	FPT	Rank
Owen Daniels	65	715	11.0	4	125.5	8

Owen Daniels - Daniels will likely finish in the Top 5 to 10 TEs and has the potential to finish higher with more goal line looks. He shouldn't be ranked ahead of Witten, Gates, Gonzalez, Winslow, or Clark. Daniels makes a nice handcuff for Andre Johnson owners, since Daniels tends to have better games when Johnson is less of a factor.

Player	FGM	FGA	XPM	XPA	FPT	Rank
Kris Brown	30	36	37	37	112.0	12

Kris Brown - The Texans ranked 31st in kicker scoring in their inaugural year back in 2002. Brown gradually climbed up to 28th, 27th, and then 18th in 2005. In 2006, the first year of the Gary Kubiak regime, they dropped back down to 30th in kicker scoring. In 2007 they climbed to 14th, and last year inched up to 12th. During the first half of 2008, Brown scored 52 points. The pace picked up a little in the second half as he scored 72 points. Brown's kickoffs have improved throughout his career. He has averaged 64 yards and 10 touchbacks a year over the last five years. Both Brown and the Texans put together two solid back-to-back years. The pieces are still in place to replicate the last two years and possibly even improve in 2009.

Player	Sack	FR	INT	TD	Yd/G	Pt/G	FPT	Rank
Miami Dolphins	41	13	16	4	313	20.4	184.7	14

Miami Dolphins - The Dolphins were a huge surprise in 2008 and their defense was a big reason. The ninth-best scoring defense also had 40 sacks and 30 takeaways, landing them among the Top 10 fantasy units. The one weakness that showed up last season was at 25th-rated pass defense. The club addressed that shortcoming by adding three potentially new starters in the secondary. Free agency landed Gibril Wilson who is among the league's best safeties, and Eric Green who was previously a starter in Arizona. They then further solidified the secondary in the draft by using their first round pick on corner Vontae Davis and a second on corner Sean Smith. Davis was arguably the top corner in this draft. He's a fast, physical playmaker who has the ability to match up with an opponent's best receiver. Wilson and Davis should step right into the starting lineup while Green will compete with holdover Will Allen at the other corner. A tougher schedule will make it difficult for the Dolphins to improve on last year's numbers, but they have certainly addressed their needs and should remain very productive. The return of Jason Taylor will be a big plus.

Fun facts

Maurice Jones-Drew averaged 4.7 YPC on the road in 2008 and only 3.5 YPC at home.

Last year in weeks 7-17 Ryan Grant was tied for 7th in rushing yards with 844.

In the last six games of the 2008 regular season, Vincent Jackson averaged 11.2 FP/gm, 9th best among WRs in that span

Joseph Addai is coming off shoulder and hamstring injuries that limited him to only 12 games last year. He still is the team's primary RB, but rookie Donald Brown will look to take away some of his carries in 2009

Last year Donovan McNabb had 13 TD passes inside the 5-yard yard line. McNabb has never had more than 13 INTs in a season and he's had six seasons with less than 10 INTs.

Kris Brown's 29 of 33 (87.9%) on field goals last year was his career best percentage, and his 124 points matched his previous career best.

I Picks Cotton Draft Analysis

I Picks Cotton Draft Analysis
September 8, 2009

QB: Tony Romo, Matt Schaub
RB: Michael Turner, Darren McFadden, Jerious Norwood, Tim Hightower, Julius Jones, Jerome Harrison, Glen Coffee
WR: Calvin Johnson, DeSean Jackson, Hines Ward, Kevin Walter, Justin Gage
TE: Chris Cooley, Zach Miller
PK: Neil Rackers
TD: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Overview:

Your receivers are the strongest part of this team and you look good at tight end as well. It's rare for us to endorse a team with weaknesses at quarterback and running back, but we're doing it right here! You should have a contender here. But your margin for error in terms of inseason management could be a bit thinner than some of your competitors'. You must remain committed to finding 2009's emergent players at RB and QB.

Players we particularly like on this team include Hines Ward, Jerome Harrison, Darren McFadden, and Zach Miller. We have all these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.

Bottom line:

With great inseason management, we think you have about a 90 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With good inseason management, we think you have about a 85 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With average inseason management, we think you have a 76 percent chance of making the playoffs.

In any event, we wish you the best of luck. Here's hoping all your weeks are like week 2 of 2008: Calvin Johnson vs. GB: 129 receiving yards, 2 TD
Darren McFadden vs. KC: 173 combined yards, 1 TD
Julius Jones vs. SF: 141 combined yards, 1 TD
Tony Romo vs. PHI: 312 passing yards, 3 TD

QB Summary:

We have Tony Romo rated #7 among quarterbacks, which makes him a less-than-stellar starter in this league. But we like the selection of our #13-rated QB, Matt Schaub, to go with him. Hopefully between the two of them, you should be able to cobble together some good production at the position, but this strategy always carries with it the downside that you'll drive yourself crazy trying to decide who to start from week to week.

Incidentally, these two have a terrific combined schedule and a decent playoff schedule too. If you simply played the one with the better matchup each week, this is the schedule you'd face:

TB | NYG | CAR | DEN | ARI | CIN | ATL | SEA | IND | GB | WAS | IND | NYG | SEA | NO | WAS

RB Summary:

Your starting running backs should, as a unit, be adequate but not great. In particular we like Darren McFadden as a second RB. Our projections have Michael Turner ranked at #9 and McFadden ranked at #17.

Jerious Norwood is a handcuff, but we'd like him as a third running back even if you didn't have Michael Turner. We think Tim Hightower makes a fine fourth running back.

Though some teams will probably be content to roster as few as four players here, it was not a bad idea to take a few extras because you're not particularly strong overall at the position. Of your remaining guys, we like Julius Jones the best, but you should keep the one you think has the best chance of putting up starter numbers. The rest might be considered expendable if you find you need roster space elsewhere.

Michael Turner is ranked #5 by some of our writers, which would make him an above average first running back. "Michael Turner has proven himself to be worth every penny that Atlanta owner Arthur Blank spent on him early in 2008. After three years of struggling to display his skills behind Tomlinson in San Diego, Turner put up huge numbers for the Falcons as they made the postseason last year. Turner has held off Jerious Norwood from making any play for more work and Turner still has a great deal of spring in his step. Turner should finish as a Top 10 RB again in 2009."

WR Summary:

Your starting receiver group is a strength, particularly Calvin Johnson as a top receiver. We figure them at a combined 1.4 points per game better than an average opponent in this league. Johnson is our fourth ranked WR, DeSean Jackson is #19, and we have Hines Ward 22nd.

Your bench also looks good. Kevin Walter should serve as a very solid fourth receiver. Justin Gage should also be solidly above average at WR5.

TE Summary:

Chris Cooley should be above average as a starting tight end. We have him ranked sixth overall at the position. We also think Zach Miller is a starting quality tight end in this league. He's a luxury.

Kicker Summary:

Neil Rackers, our seventh ranked kicker, won't win the league for you, but he'll do.

Defense Summary:

When you don't have an elite defense, one option is a committee approach. That is, try to get two cheap defenses whose schedules fit well together. Here are a few teams who we think may be available and whose schedules fit best with the Buccaneers', along with the combined schedule that each would create:

Buccaneers + Texans   =   NYJ | TEN | NYG | OAK | ARI | CAR | SF | BUF | GB | MIA | TEN | ATL | CAR | SEA | SEA | MIA
Buccaneers + Colts   =   JAX | BUF | ARI | SEA | TEN | CAR | STL | SF | HOU | MIA | BAL | ATL | TEN | NYJ | SEA | NYJ
Buccaneers + Cowboys   =   TB | BUF | NYG | DEN | KC | CAR | ATL | SEA | GB | MIA | NO | OAK | NYG | NYJ | SEA | NO

Schedule Analysis

Green means GO (good matchup), red means STOP (bad matchup). Main starters highlighted

At the bottom of the table, the Relative Strength row shows you how strong we project your team to be, relative to your usual strength, in that week. This accounts for byes and matchups.

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Tony Romo	TB	NYG	CAR	DEN	KC		ATL	SEA	PHI	GB	WAS	OAK	NYG	SD	NO	WAS
Matt Schaub	NYJ	TEN	JAX	OAK	ARI	CIN	SF	BUF	IND		TEN	IND	JAX	SEA	STL	MIA

Glen Coffee	ARI	SEA	MIN	STL	ATL		HOU	IND	TEN	CHI	GB	JAX	SEA	ARI	PHI	DET
Jerome Harrison	MIN	DEN	BAL	CIN	BUF	PIT	GB	CHI		BAL	DET	CIN	SD	PIT	KC	OAK
Tim Hightower	SF	JAX	IND		HOU	SEA	NYG	CAR	CHI	SEA	STL	TEN	MIN	SF	DET	STL
Julius Jones	STL	SF	CHI	IND	JAX	ARI		DAL	DET	ARI	MIN	STL	SF	HOU	TB	GB
Darren McFadden	SD	KC	DEN	HOU	NYG	PHI	NYJ	SD		KC	CIN	DAL	PIT	WAS	DEN	CLE
Jerious Norwood	MIA	CAR	NE		SF	CHI	DAL	NO	WAS	CAR	NYG	TB	PHI	NO	NYJ	BUF
Michael Turner	MIA	CAR	NE		SF	CHI	DAL	NO	WAS	CAR	NYG	TB	PHI	NO	NYJ	BUF

Justin Gage	PIT	HOU	NYJ	JAX	IND	NE		JAX	SF	BUF	HOU	ARI	IND	STL	MIA	SD
DeSean Jackson	CAR	NO	KC		TB	OAK	WAS	NYG	DAL	SD	CHI	WAS	ATL	NYG	SF	DEN
Calvin Johnson	NO	MIN	WAS	CHI	PIT	GB		STL	SEA	MIN	CLE	GB	CIN	BAL	ARI	SF
Kevin Walter	NYJ	TEN	JAX	OAK	ARI	CIN	SF	BUF	IND		TEN	IND	JAX	SEA	STL	MIA
Hines Ward	TEN	CHI	CIN	SD	DET	CLE	MIN		DEN	CIN	KC	BAL	OAK	CLE	GB	BAL

Chris Cooley	NYG	STL	DET	TB	CAR	KC	PHI		ATL	DEN	DAL	PHI	NO	OAK	NYG	DAL
Zach Miller	SD	KC	DEN	HOU	NYG	PHI	NYJ	SD		KC	CIN	DAL	PIT	WAS	DEN	CLE

Neil Rackers	SF	JAX	IND		HOU	SEA	NYG	CAR	CHI	SEA	STL	TEN	MIN	SF	DET	STL

Tampa Bay Buccaneers	DAL	BUF	NYG	WAS	PHI	CAR	NE		GB	MIA	NO	ATL	CAR	NYJ	SEA	NO

Relative Strength	98	101	98	92	110	100	99	98	100	100	101	99	99	99	102	101

Schedule and Matchup Notes:

Please note that the Relative strength numbers above account for both byes and matchups.

Remember that you might have starters on bye in a given week, but still have a high relative strength. This could occur because of favorable matchups, or it might be because you are projected to be missing less production than an average opponent will (your opponents have to deal with byes too).

Week 4 presents serious bye week issues for you: Tim Hightower, Jerious Norwood, Michael Turner, DeSean Jackson, and Neil Rackers are off.

Matt Schaub and Kevin Walter are out in week 10, but your opponent will likely have comparable issues with byes.

Hines Ward, Chris Cooley, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are out in week 8, but your opponent will likely have comparable issues with byes.

Julius Jones, Justin Gage, and Calvin Johnson are out in week 7, but your opponent will likely have comparable issues with byes.

Tony Romo and Glen Coffee are out in week 6, but your opponent will likely have comparable issues with byes.

In weeks 5 and 9 you'll probably be better off than your opponent, as far as byes are concerned.

Potential Free Agents

QB: we don't necessarily recommend any roster moves here.

WR: we don't necessarily recommend any roster moves here.

TE: Owen Daniels (10), Zach Miller (9), John Carlson (7), Dustin Keller (9), Jeremy Shockey (5), Heath Miller (8), Visanthe Shiancoe (9), Brent Celek (4), Anthony Fasano (6), Vernon Davis (6).

PK: we don't necessarily recommend any roster moves here.

Projections and Player Summaries

Player	Cmp	Att	YD	Y/A	TD	INT	Rsh	YD	TD	FPT	Rank
Tony Romo	331	515	3672	7.1	25	18	34	102	1	251.3	7
Matt Schaub	313	485	3652	7.5	19	15	39	90	1	233.6	13

Tony Romo - Last year Romo missed three games and still finished as the 10th-best fantasy QB. With Owens gone, it's reasonable to expect the team's passing numbers to take a hit, but Romo is far too talented to completely fall off the map. Over a full 16-game season, as long as TE Jason Witten and the talented trio of RBs are healthy, Romo is still a solid bet for Top 10 production. Don't pay Top 5 prices for Romo, but if he falls into the QB10-12 range, he's not only worth rostering, he offers tremendous upside.

Matt Schaub - If Schaub stays healthy, he'll be a fantasy starter. Andre Johnson has developed into a topnotch offensive weapon, and Schaub can make all the throws asked of him. Of the 10 games he played from start to finish last season, he threw for over 250 yards in eight of them and multiple touchdowns in five of them. Schaub would likely finish in the Top 7 or so range this year if he stays healthy, but concern about his durability will probably drop him just outside the Top 10 QBs in most fantasy drafts.

Player	Rsh	YD	Y/Rsh	TD	Rec	YD	TD	FPT	Rank
Michael Turner	320	1440	4.5	12	11	73	0	223.8	9
Darren McFadden	210	903	4.3	6	43	340	2	186.3	17
Jerious Norwood	105	551	5.2	3	33	271	1	122.7	35
Tim Hightower	155	574	3.7	4	26	169	1	112.3	45
Julius Jones	185	759	4.1	4	15	101	0	110.0	47
Jerome Harrison	65	280	4.3	2	27	203	1	74.8	58
Glen Coffee	75	304	4.1	2	18	130	0	64.4	61

Glen Coffee - The 49ers will benefit from Glen Coffee's strong running, but may not get as much out of him as they'd hope. Coffee almost walks into a backup position, but even if Frank Gore were to go down it's hard to imagine Coffee carrying the load by himself. He's better suited to play a role in a committee.

Jerome Harrison - Cleveland has a lot of competition for carries this season. As Jamal Lewis winds down, Jerome Harrison will compete with a host of others to take over the bulk of the work. He's still a bit undersized though to expect him to have over 200 touches for a season. Unless there's a run on injuries, expect Harrison to do a bit better than last season, and finish somewhere outside the Top 48 fantasy RBs.

Tim Hightower - A possible scenario for Tim Hightower, given his talent at blocking, catching, and running near the goal line, is that he is named the starting RB for the Cardinals and sees extensive time in the red zone. However, he is more likely to lose a significant playing time to Chris Wells. Realistically, Hightower will be in a committee this year, at best.

Julius Jones - Jones was already an unappealing option in spite of what looked like a clear cut role as the main ball carrier. But now that Edgerrin James is a Seahawk, at best Jones seems poised for another year of sharing touches, and could quick conceivably lose a majority of his work to James, depending on how much the once great Edge has left in the tank.

Darren McFadden - McFadden could see his carries double from his rookie season as long as he can stay healthy. The Raiders added weapons to their passing game so opposing defenses should not be able to just stack the line of scrimmage to shut down the run. McFadden can rack up yardage in several different ways and doesn't need a ton of touches to have fantasy-worthy production. Like Reggie Bush, McFadden is not a traditional back, but a team that is willing to use him in the right way will be rewarded with very good production.

Jerious Norwood - Jerious Norwood is a fine pass-catching RB who is a perfect complement to Michael Turner. He was the 37th-best fantasy RB in the land last year, making Norwood a viable fill-in player in weeks when the matchup was particularly good, and he's a spectacular insurance policy for Turner. Norwood is a threat to take the football to the house on any given play - he has killer speed. If the need arises, he could step into the starting/featured role in Atlanta - his career average rushing the ball is 5.8 yards per carry, and he has averaged 9.4 yards per reception during his time in the NFL thus far.

Michael Turner - Michael Turner tore up the NFC in his first season as a starter, finishing #2 among all fantasy RBs last year. He posted an outstanding 4.5 yards per carry, rushed for over 200 yards twice and went over 100 yards rushing in eight out of 17 games. Turner is the type of fantasy back who can carry a team to victory on any given week. The Atlanta offense has improved during the offseason with the addition of Tony Gonzalez, which will help Turner find more room to roam during 2009.

Player	Rsh	YD	Rec	YD	Y/Rec	TD	FPT	Rank
Calvin Johnson	3	17	86	1264	14.7	10	231.1	4
DeSean Jackson	10	70	67	951	14.2	6	169.1	19
Hines Ward	0	0	71	888	12.5	7	166.3	22
Kevin Walter	2	10	55	715	13.0	5	130.0	42
Justin Gage	0	0	43	615	14.3	4	107.0	51

Justin Gage - Justin Gage should end the season as the Titans leading receiver, but that doesn't mean he'll be much of a fantasy factor. If healthy he could break into the Top 32 fantasy WRs but predicting which week to start him in could be an exercise in futility. Gage is good for depth in fantasy leagues but should be considered as nothing more than a bye week/injury fill in receiver.

DeSean Jackson - History suggests that receivers who put up the kind of numbers Jackson did as a rookie are likely to enjoy very productive careers. There's no reason Jackson can't deliver on a 1,000-yard campaign and once again lead the team statistically. Consider Jackson a Top 25 WR with considerably higher upside.

Calvin Johnson - When you look at what Calvin Johnson did last year on a horrible team with mediocre quarterback play, it is mind-numbing to think what he may do if Stafford roars out of the gate like Matt Ryan did last year. Johnson is unstoppable in single-coverage and has the size and ability to shred most double-teams. At just 23, Johnson is still improving his craft and he has a chance to be considered one of the finest at his position of all time if he continues to improve on the field.

Kevin Walter - Walter is unlikely to duplicate his TD total from 2008, and he is therefore unlikely to repeat as a Top 20 fantasy WR. While he has a chance to finish as a WR2 again this season, he will more likely be a weak WR3 or strong WR4.

Hines Ward - Ward is a solid fantasy player when healthy and will continue to be a reliable target for the Steelers passing game. Pittsburgh wants to give Big Ben more time to throw the football with improved line play, and that could translate into more targets for Ward.

Player	Rec	YD	Y/Rec	TD	FPT	Rank
Chris Cooley	68	707	10.4	5	134.7	6
Zach Miller	59	673	11.4	4	120.8	9

Chris Cooley - Even if WRs Devin Thomas or Malcolm Kelly emerge, no one will replace Cooley as the over-the-middle weapon. He's the player Campbell counts on for tough first downs and is in his prime. Expect Top 10 production; hope for Top 5.

Zach Miller - Miller is Russell's go to guy and things should be no different in 2009. After scoring 62, and 84 fantasy points in his first two seasons, Miller's could reach 100 points this season. He should finally break into the Top 10 where he belongs.

Player	FGM	FGA	XPM	XPA	FPT	Rank
Neil Rackers	29	35	46	46	118.5	7

Neil Rackers - After years of kicking mediocrity (the Cardinals ranked anywhere from 15th to 32nd in kicker scoring during a fifteen year span) they vaulted to number one in 2005 and finished eighth in 2006 under the tenure of Dennis Green. Since Ken Whisenhunt took over, they ranked 17th in 2007 and 15th in 2008. Their scoring shifted from field goals to more TDs during the past two years. Whisenhunt enters his third year; however both the offense and the defense have a new coordinator this year. The team did eventually manage to re-sign Kurt Warner during the offseason. When it comes to long range opportunities, Rackers was the runaway leader with 32 attempts from 50+ yards from 2004 to 2007. Last year however the number of attempts dropped to two. On kickoffs, Rackers continues to be one of the best in getting touchbacks, although his total have gradually receded over the last five years: from 23, 22, 17, 17, down to 15. When opponents are able to bring his kickoffs out of the endzone, they do have some room to run since his strong leg will often out kick the coverage.

Player	Sack	FR	INT	TD	Yd/G	Pt/G	FPT	Rank
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	32	11	17	5	304	20.8	173.8	18

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - The Bucs were a Top 5 fantasy performer last season on the strength of solid finishes in most of the major defensive categories. They forced 30 turnovers, scored seven combined defensive and special teams touchdowns and ranked in the Top 10 in both yardage allowed and points against. The offseason was full of turnover for this unit as longtime defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin left to join his son at the University of Tennessee and soon-to-be Hall of Fame WLB Derrick Brooks was released. The Tampa-2 playbook used for more than a decade has gone with them, and Jim Bates will install his own distinctive brand of 4-3. Also gone are veteran OLB Cato June and CB Phillip Buchanon. The Bucs added former Buffalo OLB Angelo Crowell to bolster the front seven and will try former starting SS Jermaine Phillips at the WLB position vacated by Brooks. Bates has been very successful in most of his many NFL stops, but there are enough question marks throughout this defense to make it unlikely that the Bucs will return to the top five in any scoring system. Expect no more than solid DST2 upside from this crew in 2009.

Fun facts

Michael Turner had eight games last year where he rushed for 100 yards or more, including one 200-yard game

Calvin Johnson scored at least one TD in 10 of 16 games last year finishing third among all WRs

Tony Romo had six games of at least three TD passes last year. He also threw an INT in all but three games.

Darren McFadden had more games of 50+ yards receiving (3) than 50+ yard rushing (1) in 2008

DeSean Jackson had a very impressive rookie season, but he only caught two regular season TD passes. He reached the 100-yard milestone in each of his first two games as a pro and has not met that mark since. He had eight games of five receptions or more in 16 regular season games in 2008.

Two pairs of Neil Rackers' shoes are in the Pro Football Hall of Fame: for kicking three 50+ yard FGs in one game in 2004, and for setting the record for number of FGs made in one season in 2005.

Mr. Jessica Biel Draft Analysis

Mr. Jessica Biel Draft Analysis
September 8, 2009

QB: Drew Brees, Chad Pennington
RB: Marion Barber, Thomas Jones, Earnest Graham, Edgerrin James, Willis McGahee
WR: Chad Ochocinco, Bernard Berrian, Steve Breaston, Limas Sweed, Antwaan Randle El, Miles Austin, Michael Crabtree
TE: Kellen Winslow, Heath Miller
PK: Robbie Gould
TD: Chicago Bears

Overview:

This team is built around strong quarterback play. But it has some serious issues post-draft. Your only real core strength is at quarterback, yet that's often the easiest position to fill during the season. Your weaknesses at both running back and receiver put you in a hole before any games have played. To end up with a team constructed like this, you probably did not get value on some of your selections. The players themselves are not necessarily bad --- you just might have paid more than what they were worth.

To make this team into a serious contender, you are going to need to be extremely active in trades and on the waiver wire. You esentially need to turn over significant parts of this roster. Last year running backs like Steve Slaton, Chris Johnson, Le'Ron McClain and Derrick Ward all could be had dirt cheap at the draft. Additionally, wide receivers like Kevin Walter, Eddie Royal, Steve Breaston, DeSean Jackson, Ted Ginn and Mark Clayton were available after a lot of the drafts. You are likely going to need to land some of this year's top waiver plays, so pay close attention to increased workloads, targets, injuries, etc.

Bottom line:

With great inseason management, we think you have about a 65 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With good inseason management, we think you have about a 45 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With average inseason management, we think you have a 24 percent chance of making the playoffs.

In any event, we wish you the best of luck. Here's hoping all your weeks are like week 2 of 2007: Chad Ochocinco vs. CLE: 209 receiving yards, 2 TD
Marion Barber vs. MIA: 95 combined yards, 2 TD
Edgerrin James vs. SEA: 150 combined yards, 1 TD
Willis McGahee vs. NYJ: 103 combined yards, 1 TD
Kellen Winslow vs. CIN: 100 receiving yards, 1 TD

QB Summary:

You don't need us to tell you this, but we'll tell you anyway: Drew Brees should ensure that your production at the quarterback position is among the best in the league. We have him as the #2 QB according to your scoring rules, and we figure he gives you about a 1.9 point-per-game advantage over an average starting QB.

Our projections don't show Chad Pennington as being a top-notch backup, but the issue will be moot as long as Brees stays healthy.

Incidentally, Pennington has what we project as a bad matchup (NYJ) during Brees's bye.

RB Summary:

We see both your starters at running back as below average. Our projections have Marion Barber ranked 15th and Thomas Jones ranked 20th.

Earnest Graham is a little below average as a third running back. Edgerrin James also figures to be a bit iffy as a fourth RB.

Willis McGahee is a solid depth pick.

WR Summary:

We see all your starters at receiver as below average. Chad Ochocinco is our 12th ranked WR, Bernard Berrian is #23, and we have Steve Breaston 43rd.

Limas Sweed is a very weak fourth receiver. Antwaan Randle El is also a liability at fifth receiver.

Though some teams will probably be content to roster as few as five players here, it was not a bad idea to take a few extras because you're not particularly strong overall at the position. Of your remaining guys, we like Miles Austin the best, but you should keep the one you think has the best chance of putting up starter numbers. The rest might be considered expendable if you find you need roster space elsewhere.

TE Summary:

Kellen Winslow is just OK as a starting tight end (we have him ranked #7). So the selection of Heath Miller, who we see as a solid backup, was wise.

Kicker Summary:

Robbie Gould, our 11th ranked kicker, is below average but probably adequate.

Defense Summary:

The Bears are probably not a difference-maker at defense, but they should be OK.

When you don't have an elite defense, one option is a committee approach. That is, try to get two cheap defenses whose schedules fit well together. Here are a few teams who we think may be available and whose schedules fit best with the Bears', along with the combined schedule that each would create:

Bears + Texans   =   NYJ | TEN | SEA | OAK | ARI | ATL | SF | BUF | ARI | SF | TEN | MIN | STL | SEA | BAL | MIA
Bears + Cowboys   =   GB | NYG | SEA | DET | KC | ATL | ATL | SEA | ARI | SF | WAS | OAK | STL | SD | BAL | MIN
Bears + Colts   =   JAX | MIA | SEA | SEA | TEN | ATL | STL | SF | ARI | SF | BAL | HOU | TEN | DEN | BAL | NYJ

Schedule Analysis

Green means GO (good matchup), red means STOP (bad matchup). Main starters highlighted

At the bottom of the table, the Relative Strength row shows you how strong we project your team to be, relative to your usual strength, in that week. This accounts for byes and matchups.

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Drew Brees	DET	PHI	BUF	NYJ		NYG	MIA	ATL	CAR	STL	TB	NE	WAS	ATL	DAL	TB
Chad Pennington	ATL	IND	SD	BUF	NYJ		NO	NYJ	NE	TB	CAR	BUF	NE	JAX	TEN	HOU

Marion Barber	TB	NYG	CAR	DEN	KC		ATL	SEA	PHI	GB	WAS	OAK	NYG	SD	NO	WAS
Earnest Graham	DAL	BUF	NYG	WAS	PHI	CAR	NE		GB	MIA	NO	ATL	CAR	NYJ	SEA	NO
Edgerrin James	STL	SF	CHI	IND	JAX	ARI		DAL	DET	ARI	MIN	STL	SF	HOU	TB	GB
Thomas Jones	HOU	NE	TEN	NO	MIA	BUF	OAK	MIA		JAX	NE	CAR	BUF	TB	ATL	IND
Willis McGahee	KC	SD	CLE	NE	CIN	MIN		DEN	CIN	CLE	IND	PIT	GB	DET	CHI	PIT

Miles Austin	TB	NYG	CAR	DEN	KC		ATL	SEA	PHI	GB	WAS	OAK	NYG	SD	NO	WAS
Bernard Berrian	CLE	DET	SF	GB	STL	BAL	PIT	GB		DET	SEA	CHI	ARI	CIN	CAR	CHI
Steve Breaston	SF	JAX	IND		HOU	SEA	NYG	CAR	CHI	SEA	STL	TEN	MIN	SF	DET	STL
Michael Crabtree	ARI	SEA	MIN	STL	ATL		HOU	IND	TEN	CHI	GB	JAX	SEA	ARI	PHI	DET
Chad Ochocinco	DEN	GB	PIT	CLE	BAL	HOU	CHI		BAL	PIT	OAK	CLE	DET	MIN	SD	KC
Antwaan Randle El	NYG	STL	DET	TB	CAR	KC	PHI		ATL	DEN	DAL	PHI	NO	OAK	NYG	DAL
Limas Sweed	TEN	CHI	CIN	SD	DET	CLE	MIN		DEN	CIN	KC	BAL	OAK	CLE	GB	BAL

Heath Miller	TEN	CHI	CIN	SD	DET	CLE	MIN		DEN	CIN	KC	BAL	OAK	CLE	GB	BAL
Kellen Winslow	DAL	BUF	NYG	WAS	PHI	CAR	NE		GB	MIA	NO	ATL	CAR	NYJ	SEA	NO

Robbie Gould	GB	PIT	SEA	DET		ATL	CIN	CLE	ARI	SF	PHI	MIN	STL	GB	BAL	MIN

Chicago Bears	GB	PIT	SEA	DET		ATL	CIN	CLE	ARI	SF	PHI	MIN	STL	GB	BAL	MIN

Relative Strength	102	98	100	101	96	99	106	96	98	102	97	102	102	102	100	98

Schedule and Matchup Notes:

Please note that the Relative strength numbers above account for both byes and matchups.

Remember that you might have starters on bye in a given week, but still have a high relative strength. This could occur because of favorable matchups, or it might be because you are projected to be missing less production than an average opponent will (your opponents have to deal with byes too).

Week 8 presents moderate bye week issues: Earnest Graham, Chad Ochocinco, Antwaan Randle El, Limas Sweed, Heath Miller, and Kellen Winslow are not playing.

Week 5 presents moderate bye week issues: Drew Brees, Robbie Gould, and Chicago Bears are not playing.

Week 9 presents moderate bye week issues: Thomas Jones and Bernard Berrian are not playing.

Week 6 presents moderate bye week issues: Chad Pennington, Marion Barber, Miles Austin, and Michael Crabtree are not playing.

In weeks 4, 7, and 10 you'll probably be better off than your opponent, as far as byes are concerned.

Potential Free Agents

QB: Kyle Orton (7), Brett Favre (9), Matt Cassel (8), Chad Pennington (6), Shaun Hill (6), Jake Delhomme (4), JaMarcus Russell (9), Mark Sanchez (9), Kerry Collins (7), Byron Leftwich (8).

TE: Owen Daniels (10), Zach Miller (9), John Carlson (7), Dustin Keller (9), Jeremy Shockey (5), Heath Miller (8), Visanthe Shiancoe (9), Brent Celek (4), Anthony Fasano (6), Vernon Davis (6).

PK: Ryan Longwell (9), Nick Folk (6), Lawrence Tynes (10), Robbie Gould (5), Kris Brown (10), Adam Vinatieri (6), Jeff Reed (8), John Kasay (4), Josh Scobee (7), Joe Nedney (6).

Projections and Player Summaries

Player	Cmp	Att	YD	Y/A	TD	INT	Rsh	YD	TD	FPT	Rank
Drew Brees	374	578	4300	7.4	30	18	22	15	0	293.0	2
Chad Pennington	281	449	2986	6.7	16	11	30	66	1	198.9	23

Drew Brees - In his three years with the Saints, Brees has clearly established himself as one of the finest fantasy quarterbacks available. He makes good decisions considering the Saints' aggressive approach, although last year's 17 interceptions is not a career anomaly. While it would be difficult to match last year, he has been a Top 5 fantasy QB for three straight seasons. Brees is easily one of the safest options at the position, but it will cost you a high draft pick.

Chad Pennington - Pennington may struggle to match 3,600+ passing yards this season, but he'll still have a high completion percentage and may get a few more touchdown passes. All things considered, he'll have marginal value as a fantasy starter but possibly good value as a backup.

Player	Rsh	YD	Y/Rsh	TD	Rec	YD	TD	FPT	Rank
Marion Barber	220	924	4.2	8	43	301	2	199.0	15
Thomas Jones	230	966	4.2	7	26	166	1	169.2	20
Earnest Graham	145	602	4.2	5	22	161	1	118.3	40
Edgerrin James	135	533	3.9	5	12	78	0	97.1	52
Willis McGahee	125	488	3.9	4	12	79	0	79.2	56

Marion Barber - Barber may be a buy-low candidate this year because of his 17th place finish last season. While owners have to be mindful of the dual threat Jones and Tashard present, Barber has been too good and is being paid too much not to have the largest role in the backfield.

Earnest Graham - On paper, the 2009 Buccaneers running game looks to be a RBBC approach. Both Graham and Ward are capable of being heavily involved in the passing game, but Ward appears to have more of an edge due to his 1000-yard rushing performance last year. Expect Graham to occupy a complementary role in the offense this year, but his presence could still garner significant touches.

Edgerrin James - Edgerrin James sat patiently through the offseason waiting for his opportunity, which came in mid August with former division rival Seattle. James signed a 1-year, $2mm contract to compete against Julius Jones for the tailback reps. While James is 31 and past his prime, Julius Jones is one of the few projected starters we can confidently say James is better than. Expect James to, at worst, share the carries evenly but quite possibly emerge as the starter full time.

Thomas Jones - Jones will still score, but his touchdown total will probably fall in between the two he had in 2007 and the 15 of a season ago. Greene is expected to fill the goal line role, which takes away a large portion of Jones' scores since he's not really a breakaway threat. He also faltered a bit late in the season last year, so the Jets could look to limit his touches while at the same time getting their other dynamic runners on the field.

Willis McGahee - McGahee enters the season as the "starter", but what that means is really anybody's guess. As evidenced by our staff rankings, just about everyone is split on how the team plans to use their running backs this year.

Player	Rsh	YD	Rec	YD	Y/Rec	TD	FPT	Rank
Chad Ochocinco	0	0	80	1096	13.7	8	195.1	12
Bernard Berrian	3	20	62	921	14.9	6	161.1	23
Steve Breaston	2	10	62	763	12.3	4	129.8	43
Limas Sweed	0	0	35	452	12.9	3	80.7	72
Antwaan Randle El	2	14	34	401	11.8	2	69.5	80
Miles Austin	0	0	26	341	13.1	2	59.1	91
Michael Crabtree	1	6	25	320	12.8	2	57.1	92

Miles Austin - Miles Austin has to beat Patrick Crayton out for a starting role, but the truth is they bring decidedly different skill sets. Austin averaged 21.4 yards per reception last year and will be the Cowboys main deep threat this season, regardless of how many snaps he plays. The key for Austin's fantasy value is whether he is named a starter in camp. If so, he's worth a late round draft pick because he has the physical talent to emerge from obscurity and will be catching balls from an elite QB.

Bernard Berrian - The Vikings rushing attack is powerful, and Berrian will often see single-coverage which he can exploit down the field with speed. The main question is whether Sage Rosenfels and/or Tarvaris Jackson will provide improved quarterbacking in 2009 now that Brett Favre has decided to stay retired.

Steve Breaston - Breaston's 2008 performance was impressive. He caught nearly 70% of his targets for over 1,000 yards. With Larry Fitzgerald and Boldin around, Breaston is an extremely long-shot to surpass those numbers. He remains an excellent NFL backup WR and would be a nice fantasy option if either of the starting WRs were out.

Michael Crabtree - Crabtree is simply a touchdown machine who works hard, has fantastic hands and is the best blocking WR in the class of 2009. For this year in redraft leagues he will probably be overvalued, so caution needs to be exercised when considering him for your roster. Even the best receivers generally take a year or two to become accustomed to the speed of the NFL.

Chad Ochocinco - Now healthy and poised for a comeback, Ochocinco might just surprise everyone this season. Cincinnati is a bad team, and their defense can't stop anyone. They're going to have to throw to win. A healthy Palmer means improved chances for Ochocinco to shine. Look for Ochocinco to return to his former self and possibly finish in the Top 10 for fantasy WRs this season.

Antwaan Randle El - Every year it seems some fantasy owner will draft Randle El believing that this is the year he puts it all together. But after eight seasons of middling performance, the odds of his becoming a consistent fantasy threat are meager at best. He's a good guy and a good teammate, but that doesn't make him a good player.

Limas Sweed - Limas Sweed was last seen dropping a sure TD and faking an injury in the AFC championship game. Early reports indicate that he's been developing well this offseason, and the Steelers will count on him to replace Nate Washington in three-wide sets. Veteran Shaun McDonald will push him, but Sweed could have surprising value if Hines Ward misses time or Santonio Holmes gets in trouble again.

Player	Rec	YD	Y/Rec	TD	FPT	Rank
Kellen Winslow	58	693	11.9	5	125.8	7
Heath Miller	44	466	10.6	5	98.6	13

Heath Miller - Miller is one of the best TEs in the NFL today. So why doesn't he produce more like a premier fantasy TE? Simply put - the Steelers don't throw enough. He could end the season near the Top 10, but will be hard pressed to crack it.

Kellen Winslow - The Bucs are counting on Winslow to be 100 percent healthy and there is no reason to think otherwise. The Bucs offense will feature plenty of Winslow and Bryant, a tandem similar to Dwayne Bowe and Tony Gonzalez last year for the Chiefs. If Winslow can stay healthy he should reach 65-70 catches or even 80+. Winslow automatically upgrades a poor red zone offense and should often have TD scoring opportunities.

Player	FGM	FGA	XPM	XPA	FPT	Rank
Robbie Gould	28	33	42	42	112.0	11

Robbie Gould - Gould's 85.94% career field goal percentage puts him at third on the all-time accuracy list, behind only Nate Kaeding and Mike Vanderjagt. His one weakness is inconsistency from year-to-year on kickoffs. Last year was one of the good years as he averaged 65.0 yards and had 9 touchbacks. Gould remains an integral part of the team. In the words of head coach Lovie Smith, "Robbie's one of the guys. A lot of times kickers aren't. He has earned his respect a few different ways." The Bears vaulted from 28th in kicker scoring in 2005 to first in 2006. In 2007 they avoided the huge drop-off that many teams experience after a big year. They remained in the top ten finishing 7th. In 2008 they dropped to 15th, as the number of field goals dropped and the number of PATs increased to a more typical distribution. It wouldn't be surprising to see something similar to that again this year, rather than the field goal heavy scoring that led to Gould's two previous top ten years.

Player	Sack	FR	INT	TD	Yd/G	Pt/G	FPT	Rank
Chicago Bears	35	14	19	7	319	19.8	204.7	8

Chicago Bears - The Bears had a solid pass rush, a Top 5 finish in interceptions, six combined special teams/defensive touchdwns, and a Top 10 fantasy finish in 2008. Head Coach Lovie Smith changed up his defensive front last season and successfully improved against the run, but a Bottom 5 pass defense was often the team's undoing. Smith has hinted that he may move back toward his Cover-2/Tampa-2 roots in 2009, which could improve the team's points against and yardage against figures. Veteran DE Adewale Ogunleye will continue to be the team's primary pass rusher, while the back seven will again be anchored by MLB Brian Urlacher and CB Charles Tillman. The Bears will still have question marks in the secondary where the corner and free safety play will need to improve if this defense is to return to its once stingy ways. Kick returners Devin Hester and Danieal Manning will continue to provide added value and should keep the Bears a solid fantasy option even if the defense struggles to remain consistent. Expect the Bears to again be one of the first defenses to come off the draft board.

Fun facts

Drew Brees had 23 of his 34 TD passes at home last year. His fantasy points per game were a full 10.0 points higher at home than on the road

Marion Barber has never had a 1000-yard rushing season, but he is coming off back to back seasons of at least 1250 total yards from scrimmage. He has 44 and 52 receptions in each of his last two years

Johnson had an off year last year due to assorted injuries and a QB situation that was fair at best. He looks to return fully healthy this year with Carson Palmer back under center. Prior to last year, Johnson averaged 1340 yards receiving per season in his last six years

Thomas Jones has 290 carries or more in each of the last four years. In weeks 6-15 Jones did not have any less than 12 fantasy points in a game

Robbie Gould is the only Bears' kicker to ever make 30+ field goals in back-to-back seasons.

Robintucky Raiders Draft Analysis

Robintucky Raiders Draft Analysis
September 8, 2009

QB: Peyton Manning, Kerry Collins
RB: DeAngelo Williams, Marshawn Lynch, Derrick Ward, Michael Bush, Rashard Mendenhall
WR: Roddy White, Antonio Bryant, Santana Moss, Nate Washington, Hakeem Nicks, Jordy Nelson
TE: Greg Olsen, Anthony Fasano
PK: Mason Crosby
TD: New York Giants, New England Patriots

Overview:

The quarterback position looks good, and we like your overall strength at the tradionally less important positions as well. Despite not being strong at running back and receiver, we think this team should be above average.

Nevertheless, we feel compelled to mention that the RB and WR positions make us a bit nervious and are likely to require some attention throughout the year. We'd feel much better if we knew you were committed to scooping up 2009's breakout players at RB and WR. Getting one or more of these would take this team to the next level.

Players we particularly like on this team include Greg Olsen, Derrick Ward, Anthony Fasano, and the Patriots defense. We have all these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.

Bottom line:

With great inseason management, we think you have about a 90 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With good inseason management, we think you have about a 80 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With average inseason management, we think you have a 72 percent chance of making the playoffs.

In any event, we wish you the best of luck. Here's hoping all your weeks are like week 16 of 2008: DeAngelo Williams vs. NYG: 108 combined yards, 4 TD
Derrick Ward vs. CAR: 210 combined yards
Antonio Bryant vs. SD: 127 receiving yards, 1 TD
Peyton Manning vs. JAX: 364 passing yards, 3 TD
Anthony Fasano vs. KC: 47 receiving yards, 2 TD

QB Summary:

You don't need us to tell you this, but we'll tell you anyway: Peyton Manning should ensure that your production at the quarterback position is among the best in the league. We have him as the #3 QB according to your scoring rules, and we figure he gives you about a 1.3 point-per-game advantage over an average starting QB.

As of now, our projections don't indicate that Kerry Collins will be a viable backup quarterback. While the presence of Manning minimizes the need for a top backup, we might recommend taking a quick peek at the free agent list to see if you can find some help. We'll offer some specific suggestions at the end of the report.

Incidentally, Collins has what we project as a neutral matchup (NE) during Manning's bye.

RB Summary:

Your starting running backs should be adequate but not great. They don't stand out as difference-makers, but both should be OK. Our projections have DeAngelo Williams ranked at #5 and Marshawn Lynch ranked at #19.

Your bench looks good and should help offset the unexciting starting unit. Derrick Ward should serve as a very solid third running back. Michael Bush, on the other hand, is an average-at-best fourth RB.

Rashard Mendenhall is a solid depth pick.

Some of our staffers have DeAngelo Williams as high as #4, which would make him an above average first running back. "With Jonathan Stewart nursing a nagging Achilles throughout training camp and Williams looking like he's in midseason form as of preseason week 1, I think Williams will explode out of the gates in September and make his fantasy owners very happy all year long. He's shot up my board over the last week and a half. "

Some of our staffers have Marshawn Lynch as high as #16, which would make him an above average second running back. "Lynch is a dynamic player and has been the feature back for the Bills ever since Willis McGahee left town. Lynch has added some weight this off-season which should help him endure the long year and be more effective down the stretch and also near the goal line. Fred Jackson will threaten Lynch some this season, especially with Lynch's three-game suspension to start the season, but Lynch will still get 20+ touches a game. Running lanes will be more open this season as well with Terrell Owens joining the club."

Michael Bush is ranked #40 by some of our writers, which would make him an above average fourth running back. "Bush is an excellent receiver, especially for a power back, and he's one of the two or three highest upside RBs you can get outside of the top 30."

WR Summary:

We like Santana Moss as a third WR, but we consider your starting receivers, as a group, to be a little below par. Roddy White is our #8 ranked receiver, Antonio Bryant is #24, and we have Moss 28th.

Nate Washington is a little below average as a fourth receiver. Hakeem Nicks is also a fair-to-middlin' fifth receiver.

Because you're not particularly strong overall at the position, adding some depth here was a good idea. But we're not convinced Jordy Nelson is the right player for the job. Check the end of the report for some alternative suggestions.

Some of our staffers have Antonio Bryant as high as #19, which would make him a fine second receiver. "From out of the league to Tampa's Franchise tag, who would've thunk it? There is so much uncertainty in Tampa right now and Bryant has been gimpy, so I'm not high on Bryant at his current ADP. But if he's 100% to start the season, few could argue that he's not capable of delivering WR1 numbers as long as the QB situation settles down. "

Nate Washington is ranked #33 by some of our writers, which would make him a great fourth receiver and even a legitimate WR3. Mark Wimer reasons, "Washington was targetted early and often by Kerry Collins in the preseason opener and I think he's going to make an effective #1 WR. He's going up my draft board as of 8/17. His hamstring injury is problematic, though - if it doesn't improve by the end of this week, I'll move him down my draft board. "

Some members of our staff have Hakeem Nicks ranked as high as 36th, which would make him a great fifth receiver and even a legitimate WR3. "Nicks has all of the tools to produce right away. He gives the Giants a sure-handed playmaker that they have missed since the departure of Plaxico Burress. Nicks should start early on and be a good depth WR with plenty of upside this season and a future star in the league. His performance against West Virginia in the bowl game was amazing. I expect him to have a big impact early on."

TE Summary:

Greg Olsen should be above average as a starting tight end. We have him ranked fourth overall at the position. Anthony Fasano is a nice backup.

Kicker Summary:

With Mason Crosby, you should be above average at the position.

Defense Summary:

Between the Giants and the Patriots, you should get above average production here.

Schedule Analysis

Green means GO (good matchup), red means STOP (bad matchup). Main starters highlighted

At the bottom of the table, the Relative Strength row shows you how strong we project your team to be, relative to your usual strength, in that week. This accounts for byes and matchups.

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Kerry Collins	PIT	HOU	NYJ	JAX	IND	NE		JAX	SF	BUF	HOU	ARI	IND	STL	MIA	SD
Peyton Manning	JAX	MIA	ARI	SEA	TEN		STL	SF	HOU	NE	BAL	HOU	TEN	DEN	JAX	NYJ

Michael Bush	SD	KC	DEN	HOU	NYG	PHI	NYJ	SD		KC	CIN	DAL	PIT	WAS	DEN	CLE
Marshawn Lynch	NE	TB	NO	MIA	CLE	NYJ	CAR	HOU		TEN	JAX	MIA	NYJ	KC	NE	ATL
Rashard Mendenhall	TEN	CHI	CIN	SD	DET	CLE	MIN		DEN	CIN	KC	BAL	OAK	CLE	GB	BAL
Derrick Ward	DAL	BUF	NYG	WAS	PHI	CAR	NE		GB	MIA	NO	ATL	CAR	NYJ	SEA	NO
DeAngelo Williams	PHI	ATL	DAL		WAS	TB	BUF	ARI	NO	ATL	MIA	NYJ	TB	NE	MIN	NYG

Antonio Bryant	DAL	BUF	NYG	WAS	PHI	CAR	NE		GB	MIA	NO	ATL	CAR	NYJ	SEA	NO
Santana Moss	NYG	STL	DET	TB	CAR	KC	PHI		ATL	DEN	DAL	PHI	NO	OAK	NYG	DAL
Jordy Nelson	CHI	CIN	STL	MIN		DET	CLE	MIN	TB	DAL	SF	DET	BAL	CHI	PIT	SEA
Hakeem Nicks	WAS	DAL	TB	KC	OAK	NO	ARI	PHI	SD		ATL	DEN	DAL	PHI	WAS	CAR
Nate Washington	PIT	HOU	NYJ	JAX	IND	NE		JAX	SF	BUF	HOU	ARI	IND	STL	MIA	SD
Roddy White	MIA	CAR	NE		SF	CHI	DAL	NO	WAS	CAR	NYG	TB	PHI	NO	NYJ	BUF

Anthony Fasano	ATL	IND	SD	BUF	NYJ		NO	NYJ	NE	TB	CAR	BUF	NE	JAX	TEN	HOU
Greg Olsen	GB	PIT	SEA	DET		ATL	CIN	CLE	ARI	SF	PHI	MIN	STL	GB	BAL	MIN

Mason Crosby	CHI	CIN	STL	MIN		DET	CLE	MIN	TB	DAL	SF	DET	BAL	CHI	PIT	SEA

New England Patriots	BUF	NYJ	ATL	BAL	DEN	TEN	TB		MIA	IND	NYJ	NO	MIA	CAR	BUF	JAX
New York Giants	WAS	DAL	TB	KC	OAK	NO	ARI	PHI	SD		ATL	DEN	DAL	PHI	WAS	CAR

Relative Strength	99	101	99	93	102	99	105	99	100	99	100	101	99	99	98	99

Schedule and Matchup Notes:

Please note that the Relative strength numbers above account for both byes and matchups.

Remember that you might have starters on bye in a given week, but still have a high relative strength. This could occur because of favorable matchups, or it might be because you are projected to be missing less production than an average opponent will (your opponents have to deal with byes too).

Week 4 presents moderate bye week issues: DeAngelo Williams and Roddy White are not playing.

Week 8 presents moderate bye week issues: Rashard Mendenhall, Derrick Ward, Antonio Bryant, Santana Moss, and New England Patriots are not playing.

Peyton Manning and Anthony Fasano are out in week 6, but your opponent will likely have comparable issues with byes.

Hakeem Nicks and New York Giants are out in week 10, but your opponent will likely have comparable issues with byes.

Michael Bush and Marshawn Lynch are out in week 9, but your opponent will likely have comparable issues with byes.

In weeks 5 and 7 you'll probably be better off than your opponent, as far as byes are concerned.

Potential Free Agents

QB: Kyle Orton (7), Brett Favre (9), Matt Cassel (8), Chad Pennington (6), Shaun Hill (6), Jake Delhomme (4), JaMarcus Russell (9), Mark Sanchez (9), Kerry Collins (7), Byron Leftwich (8).

TE: Owen Daniels (10), Zach Miller (9), John Carlson (7), Dustin Keller (9), Jeremy Shockey (5), Heath Miller (8), Visanthe Shiancoe (9), Brent Celek (4), Anthony Fasano (6), Vernon Davis (6).

PK: we don't necessarily recommend any roster moves here.

Projections and Player Summaries

Player	Cmp	Att	YD	Y/A	TD	INT	Rsh	YD	TD	FPT	Rank
Peyton Manning	332	525	3859	7.4	28	14	23	28	1	283.3	3
Kerry Collins	237	420	2621	6.2	16	12	24	38	0	169.8	28

Kerry Collins - Kerry Collins enters this season as the unquestioned starter in Tennessee. He proved last year that he could run this offense effectively and may be asked to do more in 2009. However, the Titans are a run-first team so Collins' production will be very limited by the system.

Peyton Manning - Manning got off to a slow start last season after undergoing knee surgery in July. He skipped the preseason and wasn't quite himself during the first few games. After averaging just 15.8 fantasy points per game during the first three games, he averaged a much more Manning-like 20.9 fantasy points per game over the remaining 13 games. Manning will be drafted as a Top 3 fantasy QB in most leagues and is a decent bet to live up to his draft position.

Player	Rsh	YD	Y/Rsh	TD	Rec	YD	TD	FPT	Rank
DeAngelo Williams	270	1337	5.0	10	32	202	1	230.9	5
Marshawn Lynch	210	872	4.2	6	40	280	1	174.7	19
Derrick Ward	175	779	4.5	4	38	293	2	159.7	25
Michael Bush	110	462	4.2	4	20	148	1	98.5	50
Rashard Mendenhall	125	494	4.0	5	16	110	0	93.4	54

Michael Bush - Many were wondering how Michael Bush would bounce back after missing essentially two years because of his broken leg. He proved the doubters wrong late in the 2008 season, and the Raiders will be wise to find him carries in a crowded backfield. For now he's the 3rd option, but if he gets a bigger role in training camp, pay close attention.

Marshawn Lynch - The suspension will certainly hurt Lynch’s overall production, but he has a chance to put up better numbers in fewer games than he did a year ago if theOwens signing has a positive impact on the Bills offense. The trade of LT Jason Peters figures to hurt the offensive line, but he was an average run blocker anyway. The RBBC approach the Bills used last year should be in place again but Lynch is too talented to not be the lead back whenever he’s available. After his suspension, he should make a relatively safe option as RB2 who could certainly perform like a RB1 down the stretch.

Rashard Mendenhall - The Steelers are hoping that Rashard Mendenhall can take over for Willie Parker in 2010. This season he should be the primary backup to the injury-prone RB and is a must handcuff for Parker owners. With Gary Russell gone the Steelers could try Mendenhall out as the goal line back even though that's an area he struggled with in his rookie season.

Derrick Ward - The Buccaneers signed Ward to be a key participant in their 2009 running game. The question is, just how often will the team turn to him? Keen observation in camp will be a must in this situation and if he takes to his new surroundings, Ward could be a surprisingly effective fantasy player this year.

DeAngelo Williams - Williams is firmly entrenched as the starter in Carolina, though he shares duties with Jonathan Stewart (who also scored double-digit TDs during 2008). The Carolina offense is very run-oriented, with 504 rushing attempts last season vs. 414 passing attempts. With so many carries available, it is likely that Williams and Stewart could both be viable fantasy players during 2009, though Williams is clearly the featured back. He's only 26 this year, which means he has many productive seasons ahead of him in the NFL.

Player	Rsh	YD	Rec	YD	Y/Rec	TD	FPT	Rank
Roddy White	3	18	86	1271	14.8	8	214.9	8
Antonio Bryant	3	27	62	899	14.5	6	159.6	24
Santana Moss	2	10	68	904	13.3	6	158.9	28
Nate Washington	2	10	40	564	14.1	4	101.4	52
Hakeem Nicks	1	5	44	563	12.8	3	94.3	58
Jordy Nelson	0	0	29	357	12.3	2	62.2	87

Antonio Bryant - The Bucs 2009 passing game looks to be very thin on paper. Their depth chart consists of Bryant, Winslow and not much else. It's reminiscent of the Bengals former receiving corps that included Chad Johnson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh and virtually no one else.

Santana Moss - In eight seasons, Moss has finished as high as third but outside the Top 25 in five seasons. The only things keeping Moss from approximating last year's numbers would be an injury or major steps forward from either Devin Thomas or Malcolm Kelly. Expect Top 25 numbers, but don't overpay, while wanting much more.

Jordy Nelson - Jordy Nelson is close to earning a more prominent role within the Packers passing game. He is a very talented, big and athletic player and only needs the opportunity to demonstrate his skills. However, that may not happen this year as Donald Driver is still a capable receiver at 34. Nelson may become a starting receiver by 2010 but barring injury this season, he is unlikely to catch more than 40 passes for 560 yards and three or four scores on the season.

Hakeem Nicks - Hakeem Nicks most likely starts the season as the WR3 behind Steve Smith and Domenik Hixon, but he could move into a starting role at any point. If and when he becomes a starter, he's certainly worth having on your fantasy roster. His sure hands and precise route-running make him one of the more compelling rookie WRs to target in redrafts.

Nate Washington - Signing Nate Washington was a priority for the Titans, and he will get every opportunity to earn his new contract. Tennessee needs help at the WR position and they'll look to Washington more than the Steelers would. Washington's current ADP is WR53, and there is a chance he could outproduce that number.

Roddy White - White built upon his fine 2007 campaign with a stellar 2008. He was the sixth-best fantasy WR in the land last year, far exceeding most peoples' expectations. Now that Matt Ryan has a year of experience under his belt as an NFL starter, White should be in a position to at least maintain his 2008 numbers. He will turn 28 in November, so he's still got a young man's legs (and recuperative powers).

Player	Rec	YD	Y/Rec	TD	FPT	Rank
Greg Olsen	66	713	10.8	6	140.3	4
Anthony Fasano	41	487	11.9	4	93.2	16

Anthony Fasano - Fasano is likely to post similar numbers but could become a go-to guy in the passing attack. With questions surrounding the receiving corps, the Dolphins best option may be Fasano, who displayed last season he can run crisp routes and get open.

Greg Olsen - Olsen will elevate from "good" to "great" in 2009. He has the tools to be an elite player. With a capable QB, Olsen should set career highs in receptions, yardage and touchdowns. He'll share some time with Desmond Clark but expect Olsen to see most of the targets as he begins to reach his potential.

Player	FGM	FGA	XPM	XPA	FPT	Rank
Mason Crosby	34	40	44	44	129.0	3

Mason Crosby - Crosby has been perfect on PATs and on field goals under 30 yards. Of his four misses from 30 to 39 yards, one hit the upright and two were blocked. He has left room for improvement on 40+ yard kicks, going 20 of 31. In the NFL Mason has still displayed his range, making three from 50+ yards each year, including a long of 53 yards each year. On kickoffs he averaged 64.7 yards and had 17 touchbacks last year, making him one of the better kickers in that department. From 2005 to 2007, the Packers jumped from 29th to 14th up to 1st in kicker scoring. That occurred despite having an all new coaching staff, a new offensive line scheme, several new starters along the line, and two new kickers during that stretch. Last year the only significant change was a new starting quarterback, and the Packers ended up 7th in kicker scoring. This year the offense and its coaches remain the same. Mason will have a new special teams coordinator who was promoted from assistant. What happens to kicker scoring in the second year after having been number one? Looking at the two teams that were number one prior to Green Bay: the Cardinals dropped from 1st to 8th to 17th and the Bears dropped from 1st to 7th to 15th.

Player	Sack	FR	INT	TD	Yd/G	Pt/G	FPT	Rank
New York Giants	51	13	18	6	293	19.1	216.6	3
New England Patriots	39	11	17	5	300	17.6	198.5	9

New England Patriots - Despite finishing in the top half of the league in nearly every important defensive category, the Patriots once again spent both dollars and draft picks to improve on defense. All the faces will be new at corner where veterans Shawn Springs and Leigh Bodden will be joined by second round pick Darius Butler as the Top 3. First round pick Patrick Chung is an intimidating SS in the Rodney Harrison mold and should claim that job by during camp. Another new starter will be at OLB where there is a 3-man competition to replace Mike Vrabel. This may be the one kink in the Patriots armor as they have no proven replacement. Last season's third round pick Shawn Crable spent the season on IR with a shin injury while Pierre Woods and Tully Banta-Cain are career backups with limited potential. The club made a run at Jason Taylor but lost out to division rival Miami and the loss of third round LB Tyrone McKenzie to an early knee injury just adds to the concern at LB. New England is very deep in the secondary and second round pick Ron Brace adds quality to an already deep DL. If they can find an answer at LB and stay healthy there, this perennial Top 10 fantasy defense should be right there again.

Fun facts

No RB in the league has more plays of 10+ yards rushing than DeAngelo Williams over the last two years . He averaged 6.2 YPC and scored 17 of his 20 TDs after week six last year.

Since 2006, Peyton Manning has averaged exactly two games per year, where he did not have a TD pass. He has never had less than 26 TD passes in any season of his 11 year career. He has reached 4000 yards passing in nine of those 11 seasons

Roddy White had seven 100-yard games last year, but he played in ten games where he didn't score a TD

Marshawn Lynch was 10th in the NFL in touches last year with 297. Lynch scored only one of his nine TDs last year against teams in the AFC East

Derrick Ward has a career 5.1 YPC average in three seasons of play in the league.

Antonio Bryant had more fantasy points in the last seven regular season games than any WR during that span. He had six 100-yard games in 2008 and he was one of three WRs to reach 200 yards receiving in a game (Terrell Owens, Andre Johnson)

Mason Crosby score 141 points in his rookie year, placing Green Bay atop the kicker scoring rankings.

Team Witz Draft Analysis

Team Witz Draft Analysis
September 8, 2009

QB: Philip Rivers, Trent Edwards
RB: Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson, Jamal Lewis, Cadillac Williams, Chris Brown
WR: Anquan Boldin, Lee Evans, Roy Williams, Ted Ginn, Nate Burleson, Darrius Heyward-Bey
TE: Dallas Clark, Kevin Boss
PK: Jeff Reed
TD: Tennessee Titans

Overview:

Let us say this as nicely as we can. This team is iffy at best. It is below average and/or too thin at all three core positions (quarterback, running back and receiver). To make this team into a serious contender, you are going to need to be extremely active in trades and on the waiver wire. You esentially need to turn over significant parts of this roster. Last year running backs like Steve Slaton, Chris Johnson, Le'Ron McClain and Derrick Ward all could be had dirt cheap at the draft. Additionally, wide receivers like Kevin Walter, Eddie Royal, Steve Breaston, DeSean Jackson, Ted Ginn and Mark Clayton were available after a lot of the drafts. Quarterbacks like Matt Cassel, Tyler Thigpen, Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco also went undrafted in many leagues in 2008. You are likely going to need to land many of this year's top waiver plays to make any significant noise, so pay close attention to increased workloads, targets, injuries, etc.

Players we particularly like on this team include Nate Burleson and Ted Ginn. We have both these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.

Bottom line:

With great inseason management, we think you have about a 65 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With good inseason management, we think you have about a 50 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With average inseason management, we think you have a 30 percent chance of making the playoffs.

In any event, we wish you the best of luck. Here's hoping all your weeks are like week 3 of 2007: Ronnie Brown vs. NYJ: 211 combined yards, 3 TD
Anquan Boldin vs. BAL: 181 receiving yards, 2 TD
Roy Williams vs. PHI: 204 receiving yards, 1 TD
Philip Rivers vs. GB: 306 passing yards, 3 TD

QB Summary:

We expect Philip Rivers to be a solid starter. According to our projections, he's the #5 QB, so you should be better off than most teams in the starting quarterback slot.

We're not excited about Trent Edwards (our #19 QB) as a backup, but he'll probably be adequate.

Incidentally, Edwards has what we project as a good matchup (CLE) during Rivers's bye.

RB Summary:

We see both your starters at running back as below average. Our projections have Ronnie Brown ranked 11th and Cedric Benson ranked at #28.

We don't particularly like Jamal Lewis as a third running back. Cadillac Williams is also a liability at fourth running back.

Because you're not particularly strong overall at the position, adding some depth here was a good idea. But we're not convinced Chris Brown is the right player for the job. Check the end of the report for some alternative suggestions.

Some members of our staff have Ronnie Brown ranked as high as eighth, which would make him a fine first running back. "People are forgetting that Ronnie Brown was a man among boys before he suffered his knee injury two years ago. The thought process is that it takes one and half to two years to fully recover from such an injury. If that's the case, then he's right on pace to rebound back to his dominant self this year."

Some members of our staff have Jamal Lewis ranked as high as 29th, which would make him an above average third running back. "Jamal Lewis should be good for one more year as an NFL starter, but the writing is on the wall. Ankle surgery, losing touches, and his 2,500+ total touches and 30 years of age will catch up to him sooner rather than later. That said, Cleveland has few options after him and will rely on him to post one more year of 1,000 yards."

Some members of our staff have Cadillac Williams ranked as high as 44th, which would make him a fine fourth running back. "Cadillac is in the mix, and the sooner everyone realizes that the better. The biggest deal about Caddy being involved is that Earnest Graham is not going to be used as much as his ADP suggests."

WR Summary:

We see all your starters at receiver as below average. Anquan Boldin is our #10 ranked receiver, Lee Evans is #32, and we have Roy Williams 35th.

Your bench looks good and should help offset the unexciting starting unit. Tough to do better than Ted Ginn at WR4. Nate Burleson will also be among the best WR5s in the league.

Because you're not particularly strong overall at the position, adding some depth here was a good idea. But we're not convinced Darrius Heyward-Bey is the right player for the job. Check the end of the report for some alternative suggestions.

Some members of our staff have Anquan Boldin ranked as high as fourth, which would make him an above average first receiver. "Oh, I get that Larry Fitzgerald is an uber-talent, but Boldin simply catches and catches and catches. Last year, he had an incredible nine games of six or more receptions in his 12 regular-season contests. Despite missing four games, Boldin had only seven fewer catches than Fitzgerald. If he can stay on the field for 16 games, Boldin will carry some fantasy teams (especially in PPR leagues)."

Some of our staffers have Lee Evans as high as #20, which would make him a fine second receiver. "Evans has burst through the 1,000 yards receiving barrier in 2 of his past 3 seasons, despite a lackluster supporting cast around him. However, Trent Edwards showed signs of taking strides as a passer in his sophomore season as the starting QB, with improved numbers across the board, and the arrival of Terrell Owens will loosen up the coverage on Evans significantly. This year, Evans has the highest ceiling of his career, in my opinion, and should be a solid WR2 for his fantasy owners. Hopefully, Owens' sore toe heals up soon so we can see them on the field together. "

Some members of our staff have Roy Williams ranked as high as 20th, which would make him a great third receiver and even a legitimate WR2. "Terrell Owens has left the building, and now Tony Romo will see Roy Williams as his top wideout option. Williams has had that label in Detroit so he knows how to be the top target and deal with the associated coverage and pressure. Williams has little in the way of a proven WR2 to compliment him on offense, but does have good RBs and TE Jason Witten to help take away some coverage. "

TE Summary:

Dallas Clark should be above average as a starting tight end. We have him ranked fifth overall at the position. Kevin Boss is an adequate second tight end.

Some of our staffers have Kevin Boss as high as #15, which would make him an above average second tight end. "Though the Giants did draft Travis Beckum to backup Kevin Boss this year, the rookie TE shouldn't be a threat to Boss. It usually takes a year or 2 for a TE to absorb the NFL game, and Boss vastly improved his numbers in his sophomore season with the Giants. I think Boss will continue to improve over the 2009 season, and may be a borderline TE1 in PPR leagues (and he'll be a very solid TE2 for his fantasy owners). Boss caught 4 of his 6 TDs after week 9 last season - he and Eli Manning's comfort level grew as the season progressed. "

Kicker Summary:

Jeff Reed, our 14th ranked kicker, is below average but probably adequate.

Defense Summary:

The Titans are our #7 ranked defense, so you're in good shape here.

Schedule Analysis

Green means GO (good matchup), red means STOP (bad matchup). Main starters highlighted

At the bottom of the table, the Relative Strength row shows you how strong we project your team to be, relative to your usual strength, in that week. This accounts for byes and matchups.

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Trent Edwards	NE	TB	NO	MIA	CLE	NYJ	CAR	HOU		TEN	JAX	MIA	NYJ	KC	NE	ATL
Philip Rivers	OAK	BAL	MIA	PIT		DEN	KC	OAK	NYG	PHI	DEN	KC	CLE	DAL	CIN	TEN

Cedric Benson	DEN	GB	PIT	CLE	BAL	HOU	CHI		BAL	PIT	OAK	CLE	DET	MIN	SD	KC
Chris Brown	NYJ	TEN	JAX	OAK	ARI	CIN	SF	BUF	IND		TEN	IND	JAX	SEA	STL	MIA
Ronnie Brown	ATL	IND	SD	BUF	NYJ		NO	NYJ	NE	TB	CAR	BUF	NE	JAX	TEN	HOU
Jamal Lewis	MIN	DEN	BAL	CIN	BUF	PIT	GB	CHI		BAL	DET	CIN	SD	PIT	KC	OAK
Cadillac Williams	DAL	BUF	NYG	WAS	PHI	CAR	NE		GB	MIA	NO	ATL	CAR	NYJ	SEA	NO

Anquan Boldin	SF	JAX	IND		HOU	SEA	NYG	CAR	CHI	SEA	STL	TEN	MIN	SF	DET	STL
Nate Burleson	STL	SF	CHI	IND	JAX	ARI		DAL	DET	ARI	MIN	STL	SF	HOU	TB	GB
Lee Evans	NE	TB	NO	MIA	CLE	NYJ	CAR	HOU		TEN	JAX	MIA	NYJ	KC	NE	ATL
Ted Ginn	ATL	IND	SD	BUF	NYJ		NO	NYJ	NE	TB	CAR	BUF	NE	JAX	TEN	HOU
Darrius Heyward-Bey	SD	KC	DEN	HOU	NYG	PHI	NYJ	SD		KC	CIN	DAL	PIT	WAS	DEN	CLE
Roy Williams	TB	NYG	CAR	DEN	KC		ATL	SEA	PHI	GB	WAS	OAK	NYG	SD	NO	WAS

Kevin Boss	WAS	DAL	TB	KC	OAK	NO	ARI	PHI	SD		ATL	DEN	DAL	PHI	WAS	CAR
Dallas Clark	JAX	MIA	ARI	SEA	TEN		STL	SF	HOU	NE	BAL	HOU	TEN	DEN	JAX	NYJ

Jeff Reed	TEN	CHI	CIN	SD	DET	CLE	MIN		DEN	CIN	KC	BAL	OAK	CLE	GB	BAL

Tennessee Titans	PIT	HOU	NYJ	JAX	IND	NE		JAX	SF	BUF	HOU	ARI	IND	STL	MIA	SD

Relative Strength	100	97	98	101	102	89	102	102	97	102	100	101	100	99	101	102

Schedule and Matchup Notes:

Please note that the Relative strength numbers above account for both byes and matchups.

Remember that you might have starters on bye in a given week, but still have a high relative strength. This could occur because of favorable matchups, or it might be because you are projected to be missing less production than an average opponent will (your opponents have to deal with byes too).

Week 6 presents serious bye week issues for you: Ronnie Brown, Ted Ginn, Roy Williams, and Dallas Clark are off.

Week 9 presents moderate bye week issues: Trent Edwards, Jamal Lewis, Lee Evans, and Darrius Heyward-Bey are not playing.

Anquan Boldin is out in week 4, but your opponent will likely have comparable issues with byes.

Philip Rivers is out in week 5, but your opponent will likely have comparable issues with byes.

In weeks 7, 8, and 10 you'll probably be better off than your opponent, as far as byes are concerned.

Potential Free Agents

QB: we don't necessarily recommend any roster moves here.

WR: Mark Clayton (7), Mark Bradley (8), Hakeem Nicks (10), Robert Meachem (5), Greg Camarillo (6), Michael Clayton (8), Troy Williamson (7), Bryant Johnson (7), Bobby Engram (8), Joey Galloway (8), Malcolm Kelly (8), Patrick Crayton (6), Deon Butler (7), Kevin Curtis (4), Chansi Stuckey (9), Mike Walker (7), Limas Sweed (8), Jeremy Maclin (4), Jason Avant (4). We have all these players rated ahead of Darrius Heyward-Bey.

TE: Owen Daniels (10), Zach Miller (9), John Carlson (7), Dustin Keller (9), Jeremy Shockey (5), Heath Miller (8), Visanthe Shiancoe (9), Brent Celek (4), Anthony Fasano (6), Vernon Davis (6), Todd Heap (7), Tony Scheffler (7), Randy McMichael (9), Chris Baker (8), Jermichael Finley (5), Marcedes Lewis (7), Kevin Boss (10).

PK: Ryan Longwell (9), Nick Folk (6), Lawrence Tynes (10), Robbie Gould (5), Kris Brown (10), Adam Vinatieri (6), Jeff Reed (8), John Kasay (4), Josh Scobee (7), Joe Nedney (6).

TD: we don't necessarily recommend any roster moves here.

Projections and Player Summaries

Player	Cmp	Att	YD	Y/A	TD	INT	Rsh	YD	TD	FPT	Rank
Philip Rivers	313	495	3683	7.4	25	13	30	69	0	255.1	5
Trent Edwards	293	470	3220	6.9	18	15	45	122	1	213.7	19

Trent Edwards - In 24 career games, Edwards has only accounted for 21 total TDs, so he hasn't been a very productive fantasy option up to this point. In his favor, however, most young QBs take time to develop, and the Bills have not had much talent for him to throw to. Neither of those challenges should hold him back anymore as he is at the point in his career where he should be able to lead an offense and the addition of Owens has dramatically upgraded the Bills talent level. If the line can play well and Edwards stays healthy all year, he has a chance to be a reliable QB2 this year.

Philip Rivers - Rivers is an underdog to repeat his Top 5 performance of a year ago, but is a favorite to finish in the Top 10. The Chargers still have a high-powered offense that should score a lot of points, and QBs on high-scoring offenses are nearly always good fantasy bets. In particular, the Chargers should continue to enjoy success in the red zone with their bevy of large receivers (Gates, Jackson, and Floyd are like a basketball team's front court), so Rivers should comfortably toss 25+ TDs again. Expect a fantasy finish somewhere in the 4-9 range.

Player	Rsh	YD	Y/Rsh	TD	Rec	YD	TD	FPT	Rank
Ronnie Brown	230	978	4.3	8	45	342	2	210.8	11
Cedric Benson	240	900	3.8	6	25	185	1	155.5	28
Jamal Lewis	185	685	3.7	6	10	65	0	111.0	46
Cadillac Williams	75	293	3.9	3	8	51	0	56.4	64
Chris Brown	75	300	4.0	3	9	59	0	55.9	65

Cedric Benson - Opportunities abound for the Bengal offensive players, and Benson is no exception. After setting career bests in touches and yards, Benson seems poised to finally shake off the label of fantasy bust. All he has to do is perform. Yet he has squandered such opportunities in the past and could very easily do it this season as well. For 2009, expect Benson to push the envelope that is his career best, but don't be surprised if that isn't good enough to crack your starting line up either.

Chris Brown - Chris Brown currently has a slight edge over Ryan Moats to be the backup to Steve Slaton. That's not a bad role to have as the Texans passing game is potent enough to occupy opposing defenses. Of course, that role has to be balanced by the fact that Brown missed the entire 2008 season with a back injury.

Ronnie Brown - Brown should have a strong season in 2009. He surprised by returning from injury effectively last season and this year should have more explosiveness and confidence on the field. The club really limited his carries last season, but he is capable of 20+ carries per game when healthy and on his game.

Jamal Lewis - The 2007 season looks like a blip on the radar now, and it appears that Lewis has fallen into that RB3 range where he'll be good enough to have on your roster, but not productive enough to start every week. A new offensive line helps, but with 2600 touches under his belt already, his best years are obviously in the past.

Player	Rsh	YD	Rec	YD	Y/Rec	TD	FPT	Rank
Anquan Boldin	8	48	86	1032	12.0	9	202.5	10
Lee Evans	2	12	59	850	14.4	6	149.2	32
Roy Williams	0	0	59	794	13.5	6	142.4	35
Ted Ginn	5	40	58	792	13.7	4	133.7	36
Nate Burleson	0	0	50	615	12.3	5	116.5	45
Darrius Heyward-Bey	0	0	31	400	12.9	3	73.5	77

Anquan Boldin - Currently, it is most likely that Boldin and the Cardinals will agree to an extension and the offseason squabbles will finally end. Barring a collapse of the Arizona offense, Boldin should consistently produce as a Top 10 WR.

Nate Burleson - Nate Burleson was on his way to being a productive starter and punt returner in Seattle before he suffered a torn ACL in Week 1. Burleson has looked healthy in OTAs, but he probably won't truly test the knee until training camp. Now he is in a dogfight with oft-injured Deion Branch and rookie third-round pick Deon Butler to start at split end opposite marquee free agent pickup T.J. Houshmandzadeh.

Lee Evans - The Bills now appear to have most of the pieces in place for a productive passing attack, minus trading away LT Jason Peters. Although Owens will command plenty of targets, he should also draw much of the coverage to his side of the field and Evans is a nightmare for most CBs in man coverage. Evans could improve on last year's numbers and provide a solid WR2 option for your fantasy team.

Ted Ginn - At his currently level of development, Ginn would be better served in a complimentary role within an offense. That said however, he does have the quickness to give defenses nightmares if he learns to run crisp routes and make plays once the ball is in his hands.

Darrius Heyward-Bey - The fastest receiver in the 2009 NFL Draft class is expected to be a premier deep threat for the Raiders from day one. Darrius Heyward-Bey can make amazing catches that not many receivers can grab, and the Raiders love his size/speed combo. He should end the season as the Raiders leading receiver, even though his reception total may only be around 40.

Roy Williams - Williams is an elite athlete who has the strength and hands to be a true No. 1 for the Cowboys. The tricky part is that at least one fantasy owner in every league is probably willing to draft Williams with his 2006 season in mind, but that's far too high a price to pay. He has that Top 10 potential, but he's absolutely not worth paying Top 10 value for on draft day.

Player	Rec	YD	Y/Rec	TD	FPT	Rank
Dallas Clark	64	710	11.1	6	136.5	5
Kevin Boss	34	343	10.1	4	75.3	24

Kevin Boss - Boss is entrenched as the starter, and he'll catch at least 30 passes and 3 TDs. Coming off a TE13 fantasy ranking, Boss is worth having on a roster as a backup.

Dallas Clark - Clark may not improve on the career year he had in 2008, but he should remain a key part of the offense. He should remain a Top 5 fantasy TE if he can remain healthy for 16 games.

Player	FGM	FGA	XPM	XPA	FPT	Rank
Jeff Reed	27	32	42	42	109.5	14

Jeff Reed - When the Steelers previously won the Super Bowl in 2005, they had ranked 7th in kicker scoring that year. They dropped to 22nd the following year. In 2007 during Mike Tomlin's first year at the helm, they climbed up to 16th with 113 points, largely due to Reed's impressive year on field goals. In addition to his field goal percentage, Reed also had another career high that year with ten touchbacks on kickoffs. In 2008 their kicker scoring was up a little to 117 points, although they dropped two notches to 18th in rank since kicker scoring was way up around the league. Coming off another Super Bowl victory and heading into 2009, the coaching staff and players remain relatively intact. Unless there is a fundamental change in the Steelers strong defense with an adequate offense structure, kicker scoring for Reed should once again remain about the same.

Player	Sack	FR	INT	TD	Yd/G	Pt/G	FPT	Rank
Tennessee Titans	39	12	20	5	314	17.6	206.5	7

Tennessee Titans - There was plenty to like about the Titans defense in 2008. They were among the Top 10 in every important category including second in points allowed and third in takeaways. This unit returns ten starters, but the one who isn't coming back may be the most important. Albert Haynesworth was the most dominating interior lineman in the league last year and will be missed greatly. That said, it's not as if the club has not prepared. Last year's second round pick Jason Jones will step into the lineup after a solid rookie year. He gained experience while seeing significant action in the rotation and may well have been part of the reason Tennessee didn't break the bank to keep Haynesworth. They also used a second this year on DT Sen'Derrick Marks and picked up Jovan Haye in free agency to add veteran depth. The Titans lowest mark last year was a ninth rated pass defense, so they nabbed Ryan Mouton in the third round to bolster the corner position. This was a Top 5 defense in 2008, and despite the loss of Haynesworth, they should finish in a similar position this season.

Fun facts

Anquan Boldin had only two TDs after week ten last year. He finished as the 7th ranked WR, despite missing four games due to injury

Ronnie Brown had 10 rushing TDs last year, but four of them came against the Patriots in week three. He had only two games of 20+ carries and he had only one 100-yard rushing game after week five

Philip Rivers had seven games of at least three TD passes or more in 2008. He also had ten games with a QB rating of 100.0 or higher, including eight games 120.0 or higher

Roy Williams had only one game in 2008 where he had more than three receptions - and that was with the Lions. Williams has only one TD with Dallas in ten games with his longest yardage game being only 51 yards.

Dallas Clark had 77 receptions last year. 53 of them occurred in the Colts own territory (before the 50-yard line)

"Other kickers compliment me (about having such success at Heinz Field), but I am not looking for compliments. They say 'you can have this job' and stuff like that." -- Jeff Reed

The Crosby Sweaters Draft Analysis

The Crosby Sweaters Draft Analysis
September 8, 2009

QB: Carson Palmer, Matt Hasselbeck
RB: Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, Willie Parker, Ahmad Bradshaw, Laurence Maroney
WR: Wes Welker, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Donald Driver, Earl Bennett, Sidney Rice, Jeremy Maclin, Davone Bess
TE: Tony Gonzalez
PK: Jason Elam
TD: Minnesota Vikings

Overview:

Old school!

We like your overall strength at the traditionally less important positions, but make no mistake about it: this team is about strength at the running back position. And we think it will be among the top teams in the league. Somewhere Marshall Faulk is smiling.

Nonetheless, we'd be remiss if we didn't at least mention the relative lack of strength at quarterback and receiver. These are usually survivable weaknesses, but we'd feel better if we knew you were committed to zealously scouring the waiver wire for this year's emergent players at QB and WR. Getting a breakout player at one or both of those positions would take your already-good team to the next level.

Players we particularly like on this team include Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, and Donald Driver. We have all these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.

Bottom line:

With great inseason management, we think you have about a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With good inseason management, we think you have about a 90 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With average inseason management, we think you have a 81 percent chance of making the playoffs.

In any event, we wish you the best of luck. Here's hoping all your weeks are like week 14 of 2006: Willie Parker vs. CLE: 223 combined yards, 1 TD
Steven Jackson vs. CHI: 139 combined yards, 2 TD
Frank Gore vs. GB: 168 combined yards, 1 TD
Donald Driver vs. SF: 160 receiving yards, 1 TD
Matt Hasselbeck vs. ARI: 243 passing yards, 3 TD
T.J. Houshmandzadeh vs. OAK: 118 receiving yards, 1 TD

QB Summary:

We have Carson Palmer rated #15 among quarterbacks, so we're not even sold on him as a fantasy starter in your league. But #16-rated QB Matt Hasselbeck provides you with another viable option. So while the position doesn't figure to be a strength, with shrewd management and a little luck you might end up with decent production at QB

Incidentally, these two have a terrific combined schedule and a decent playoff schedule too. If you simply played the one with the better matchup each week, this is the schedule you'd face:

DEN | GB | CHI | CLE | BAL | HOU | CHI | DAL | DET | ARI | MIN | CLE | DET | MIN | SD | GB

RB Summary:

Nice work here. We like both your starting running backs, as our projections indicate that they give you a combined 3.5 point-per-game advantage over an average opponent in this league. Our projections have Steven Jackson ranked fourth and Frank Gore ranked eighth.

Your bench also looks good. Willie Parker should serve as a very solid third running back. We also very much approve of the selection of Ahmad Bradshaw, and not just because you can hold the Brandon Jacobs owner hostage. He's a fine fourth running back in his own right.

We're not sure that Laurence Maroney adds much, as you're already strong at the position and we aren't convinced he's roster-worthy in this league anyway.

Some members of our staff have Ahmad Bradshaw ranked as high as 30th, which would make him a great fourth running back and even a legitimate RB3. "Bradshaw will have plenty of opportunity with Derrick Ward leaving via free agency. He will be used a lot in the passing game and will be able to have some very strong games. He is talented and will see plenty of carries and receptions this season to warrant a look as a depth back. The Giants have already stated that Bradshaw will be the primary back if/when Jacobs misses time. "

Some members of our staff have Laurence Maroney ranked as high as 48th, which would make him a great fifth running back and even a legitimate RB4. "Maroney played most of 2008 with a broken shoulder and has recovered from the injury. While not a guaranteed starter, he has just Fred Taylor to beat out for the top job and push to be the top dog in the backfield once again. The Patriots still like to use a committee approach with their tailbacks, but given how cheap Maroney is to acquire for this season, you may not find a possible starter with a better price tag."

WR Summary:

Your starting receivers should, as a unit, be adequate but not great. In particular we like T.J. Houshmandzadeh as a second WR. Wes Welker is our #13 ranked receiver, Houshmandzadeh is #14, and we have Donald Driver 30th.

We see Earl Bennett as an average fourth receiver. Sidney Rice is an excellent WR5.

Though some teams will probably be content to roster as few as five players here, it was not a bad idea to take a few extras because you're not particularly strong overall at the position. Of your remaining guys, we like Jeremy Maclin the best, but you should keep the one you think has the best chance of putting up starter numbers. The rest might be considered expendable if you find you need roster space elsewhere.

Jeremy Maclin is ranked #29 by some of our writers, which would make him a great sixth receiver and even a legitimate WR3. "Every year it seems that one rookie wideout explodes onto the fantasy scene and puts up big numbers. DeSean Jackson, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Marques Colston, plenty of examples exist. Maclin fell into the Eagles' lap in Round 1 of the NFL Draft and he finds himself in a pass-happy attack that will employ his quickness and speed after the catch much like his teammate DeSean Jackson did last year. Kevin Curtis had off-season surgery and may lose playing time to Maclin, whom many are already considering a likely rookie of the year candidate."

TE Summary:

We like the choice of Tony Gonzalez to start at tight end. We have him ranked third overall at the position. He's about 0.8 points per game better than an average starting TE in this league. Given your league rules and the presence of Gonzalez, your decision to roll with just one tight end is a reasonable one.

Kicker Summary:

Jason Elam, our fourth ranked kicker, won't win the league for you, but he'll do.

Defense Summary:

When you don't have an elite defense, one option is a committee approach. That is, try to get two cheap defenses whose schedules fit well together. Here are a few teams who we think may be available and whose schedules fit best with the Vikings', along with the combined schedule that each would create:

Vikings + Jaguars   =   CLE | ARI | SF | TEN | SEA | BAL | PIT | TEN | KC | DET | SEA | CHI | ARI | MIA | CAR | CHI
Vikings + Colts   =   JAX | DET | ARI | SEA | TEN | BAL | STL | SF | HOU | DET | SEA | CHI | ARI | DEN | CAR | CHI
Vikings + Redskins   =   NYG | DET | DET | GB | STL | KC | PIT | GB | ATL | DET | SEA | CHI | ARI | OAK | NYG | CHI

Schedule Analysis

Green means GO (good matchup), red means STOP (bad matchup). Main starters highlighted

At the bottom of the table, the Relative Strength row shows you how strong we project your team to be, relative to your usual strength, in that week. This accounts for byes and matchups.

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Matt Hasselbeck	STL	SF	CHI	IND	JAX	ARI		DAL	DET	ARI	MIN	STL	SF	HOU	TB	GB
Carson Palmer	DEN	GB	PIT	CLE	BAL	HOU	CHI		BAL	PIT	OAK	CLE	DET	MIN	SD	KC

Ahmad Bradshaw	WAS	DAL	TB	KC	OAK	NO	ARI	PHI	SD		ATL	DEN	DAL	PHI	WAS	CAR
Frank Gore	ARI	SEA	MIN	STL	ATL		HOU	IND	TEN	CHI	GB	JAX	SEA	ARI	PHI	DET
Steven Jackson	SEA	WAS	GB	SF	MIN	JAX	IND	DET		NO	ARI	SEA	CHI	TEN	HOU	ARI
Laurence Maroney	BUF	NYJ	ATL	BAL	DEN	TEN	TB		MIA	IND	NYJ	NO	MIA	CAR	BUF	JAX
Willie Parker	TEN	CHI	CIN	SD	DET	CLE	MIN		DEN	CIN	KC	BAL	OAK	CLE	GB	BAL

Earl Bennett	GB	PIT	SEA	DET		ATL	CIN	CLE	ARI	SF	PHI	MIN	STL	GB	BAL	MIN
Davone Bess	ATL	IND	SD	BUF	NYJ		NO	NYJ	NE	TB	CAR	BUF	NE	JAX	TEN	HOU
Donald Driver	CHI	CIN	STL	MIN		DET	CLE	MIN	TB	DAL	SF	DET	BAL	CHI	PIT	SEA
T.J. Houshmandzadeh	STL	SF	CHI	IND	JAX	ARI		DAL	DET	ARI	MIN	STL	SF	HOU	TB	GB
Jeremy Maclin	CAR	NO	KC		TB	OAK	WAS	NYG	DAL	SD	CHI	WAS	ATL	NYG	SF	DEN
Sidney Rice	CLE	DET	SF	GB	STL	BAL	PIT	GB		DET	SEA	CHI	ARI	CIN	CAR	CHI
Wes Welker	BUF	NYJ	ATL	BAL	DEN	TEN	TB		MIA	IND	NYJ	NO	MIA	CAR	BUF	JAX

Tony Gonzalez	MIA	CAR	NE		SF	CHI	DAL	NO	WAS	CAR	NYG	TB	PHI	NO	NYJ	BUF

Jason Elam	MIA	CAR	NE		SF	CHI	DAL	NO	WAS	CAR	NYG	TB	PHI	NO	NYJ	BUF

Minnesota Vikings	CLE	DET	SF	GB	STL	BAL	PIT	GB		DET	SEA	CHI	ARI	CIN	CAR	CHI

Relative Strength	100	100	99	105	103	103	98	95	98	103	99	102	101	99	97	99

Schedule and Matchup Notes:

Please note that the Relative strength numbers above account for both byes and matchups.

Remember that you might have starters on bye in a given week, but still have a high relative strength. This could occur because of favorable matchups, or it might be because you are projected to be missing less production than an average opponent will (your opponents have to deal with byes too).

Week 8 presents moderate bye week issues: Carson Palmer, Laurence Maroney, Willie Parker, and Wes Welker are not playing.

Matt Hasselbeck and T.J. Houshmandzadeh are out in week 7, but your opponent will likely have comparable issues with byes.

Steven Jackson, Sidney Rice, and Minnesota Vikings are out in week 9, but your opponent will likely have comparable issues with byes.

Frank Gore and Davone Bess are out in week 6, but your opponent will likely have comparable issues with byes.

In weeks 4, 5, and 10 you'll probably be better off than your opponent, as far as byes are concerned.

Potential Free Agents

QB: we don't necessarily recommend any roster moves here.

TE: we don't necessarily recommend any roster moves here.

PK: we don't necessarily recommend any roster moves here.

TD: New York Giants (10), Buffalo Bills (9), New York Jets (9), Seattle Seahawks (7), Indianapolis Colts (6), Miami Dolphins (6), Chicago Bears (5), Green Bay Packers (5), Jacksonville Jaguars (7), Minnesota Vikings (9).

Projections and Player Summaries

Player	Cmp	Att	YD	Y/A	TD	INT	Rsh	YD	TD	FPT	Rank
Carson Palmer	300	500	3505	7.0	21	15	20	30	0	224.8	15
Matt Hasselbeck	287	505	3156	6.2	22	14	24	84	1	224.7	16

Matt Hasselbeck - Hasselbeck has a high upside and a low downside. If he stays healthy, he should be good for at least 3,300 yards and 22 touchdowns, and perhaps substantially better than that. But his frequent assortment of injuries over the past eight season make him difficult to count on as a starter.

Carson Palmer - Palmer has all the potential to be the comeback kid this year. Ochocinco seems to be minding his Ps and Qs, and a crafty veteran like Coles can only add to the mix. The big rookie OT helps protect Palmer, and he shakes off the rust early and hits his stride by Game 1. Look for Palmer to return to his Top 10 form and prove to be a solid addition to any fantasy roster.

Player	Rsh	YD	Y/Rsh	TD	Rec	YD	TD	FPT	Rank
Steven Jackson	290	1204	4.2	8	52	425	2	241.4	4
Frank Gore	260	1118	4.3	8	48	389	2	227.2	8
Willie Parker	250	1050	4.2	6	12	85	0	150.5	30
Ahmad Bradshaw	130	618	4.8	4	19	135	1	112.3	44
Laurence Maroney	65	267	4.1	3	4	28	0	47.0	73

Ahmad Bradshaw - Last year, the enthusiasm for Ahmad Bradshaw was overdone, as Derrick Ward was far too talented and established to give up touches. But this year Bradshaw should see twice as many touches, and if he can maintain his per carry averages with the increased workload, Bradshaw is a compelling fantasy sleeper in the event Brandon Jacobs gets hurt.

Frank Gore - Frank Gore is one of the better options if you need a solid RB at the end of the first round of your draft. He'll get receptions; he'll get carries; and he'll get touchdowns. Rookie Glen Coffee may steal some touches but not too many. Gore is unlikely to carry you to a title, but he should be a key contributor if you need consistency each week.

Steven Jackson - Jackson carries a lot of uncertainty for a first round fantasy pick. If the Rams' offense jells quickly, Jackson could be the best fantasy RB in the league. If the passing game and offensive line struggle, Jackson will be unable to propel himself into the Top 10 all by himself. Jackson needs help from his teammates to enjoy fantasy success, so your view of his fantasy prospects will depend somewhat on your view of how the Rams' offense will fare as a unit.

Laurence Maroney - Laurence Maroney recently announced that he had a broken bone in his shoulder last season. That likely impacted his effectiveness in 2008, but it remains to be seen whether HC Bill Belichick will give Maroney another shot at starting. For his part, Maroney has averaged a shade over 12 carries a game but his role has been limited to first and second downs. While he's been very effective after the catch, Maroney has generally been an afterthought in the passing game. The most likely outcome in New England will be another year of multiple backs filling specialized roles with no true workhorse.

Willie Parker - The Steelers want to see if Rashard Mendenhall can be the feature back and will give him every opportunity to succeed in 2009. Parker's carries will be reduced if Mendenhall can stay healthy, and Mewelde Moore should retain his role as the third-down / change-of-pace RB. That's a lot of competition for touches.

Player	Rsh	YD	Rec	YD	Y/Rec	TD	FPT	Rank
Wes Welker	2	10	92	1040	11.3	7	193.0	13
T.J. Houshmandzadeh	1	7	82	959	11.7	8	185.6	14
Donald Driver	2	6	66	858	13.0	6	155.4	30
Earl Bennett	0	0	49	666	13.6	4	115.1	47
Sidney Rice	0	0	40	532	13.3	4	97.2	54
Jeremy Maclin	0	0	34	449	13.2	3	79.9	73
Davone Bess	1	6	35	420	12.0	2	72.1	78

Earl Bennett - The Bears passing attack is going to improve this season. A decent bet to step up may be 2008 third-round draft choice Earl Bennett, who was Jay Cutler's go-to guy for a season at Vanderbilt. He will definitely earn some playing time this year, and he could finish with strong numbers if everything falls into place.

Davone Bess - Davone Bess was a great story last year, and he has the confidence of Chad Pennington to pick up third downs and move the chains. His career beginning seems remarkable similar to Wes Welker's start and this time, the Dolphins likely will not be trading this commodity away. Expect him to post statistics similar to 2008. However, he will be pushed for playing time by rookies Patrick Turner and Brian Hartline so keep an eye on this situation during training camp and preseason.

Donald Driver - Driver will likely remain the secondbest option at the receiver position in Green Bay, but don't rule out Jordy Nelson passing him in the depth charts with a great preseason. Driver's numbers may take a small hit if the Packers pass a little less this season, but he will at least remain a viable fantasy WR3

T.J. Houshmandzadeh - While Houshmandzadeh's team situation in Cincinnati deteriorated last year, he himself has been a steady performer in each of the last four seasons. Houshmandzadeh should be viewed as a strong WR2 in twelve-team leagues, and while he lacks the upside potential of more explosive, big-play receivers, he also presents little risk for his expected draft position.

Jeremy Maclin - The Eagles didn't use a first round pick on Jeremy Maclin to sit him. Provided he can show the coaching staff enough during training camp, he'll see the field. The question is whether it will be as a full-time starter or as a WR3 in the slot. Either way, Maclin will make big plays when he gets the ball and has room to run. He is also an explosive returner for those leagues that reward individual return stats.

Sidney Rice - Sidney Rice is a tall, athletic receiver with the ability to be a great player in the NFL. With the dependable veteran Bobby Wade and rookie Percy Harvin pushing him for playing time, Rice will have to have a good training camp and start to the season to earn the trust of the Vikings organization. A realistic projection of his 2009 potential would be 50 receptions for 700 yards and five touchdowns. Anymore than that would be a bonus and he is just as likely to finish with 15 receptions again if he doesn't stay healthy again this season. He is a player to watch closely in training camp.

Wes Welker - Welker has settled into a nice niche in New England. While things change quickly in the NFL, Welker is a good bet to stay the course and post similar totals for 2009. His upside is limited in standard-scoring leagues, but his value increases in PPR leagues.

Player	Rec	YD	Y/Rec	TD	FPT	Rank
Tony Gonzalez	68	755	11.1	6	145.5	3

Tony Gonzalez - Gonzalez snagged 90+ catches the last two years with Tyler Thigpen, Damon Huard, and Brodie Croyle. He's been a Top 3 TE in nine of the past 10 seasons. Now he is playing with Matt Ryan on a stacked offense. Gonzalez could be poised for another double-digit TD season in Atlanta this year.

Player	FGM	FGA	XPM	XPA	FPT	Rank
Jason Elam	31	37	42	42	119.5	4

Jason Elam - After ranking in the bottom third of the league in kicker scoring in four out of the five years, the Falcons jumped up to 6th last year. It was a combination of the young team being very effective much sooner than most expected, along with old man Elam having his most accurate season ever, hitting 29 of 31 on field goals. Atlanta looks like a team on the rise, so there should be a good chance that they and Elam can repeat last year's success. Back in 2002 Elam relinquished kickoff duties to the punter. His kickoffs were okay, however his accuracy on placekicking improved thereafter. It is not uncommon for declining kickoff abilities to hurt the job security of older kickers, even if they are very accurate on placekicking. Elam doesn't have that worry as Atlanta placed the franchise tag on punter and kickoff specialist Michael Koenen.

Player	Sack	FR	INT	TD	Yd/G	Pt/G	FPT	Rank
Minnesota Vikings	44	14	16	7	302	19.8	61.7	17

Minnesota Vikings - In 2008 the Vikings were again a Top 10 defense in any scoring system. They finished above average in scoring, yardage allowed, sacks and takeaways. DE Jared Allen and the DT tandem of Pat and Kevin Williams form three quarters of a line that is devastating against both run and pass. MLB E.J. Henderson returns after a season-ending foot injury. He was extremely productive in 2007, adding 5.5 sacks to his stout run support play. The unit's only offseason departure was veteran safety Darren Sharper, and the Vikings were prepared for that as last year's second-round pick Tyrell Johnson will step in. Role players like OLB Chad Greenway and FS Madieu Williams have the talent and instincts to generate big plays alongside the disruptive talent in the front seven. The Vikings unquestionably deserve consideration as the second or third DST off the board, but prospective owners will want to confirm that the ongoing court case against Pat and Kevin Williams ends favorably this summer before drafting them ahead of another top tier defense like Baltimore or the New York Giants.

Fun facts

Steven Jackson avaeraged 118.5 total yards per game last year. He has 1000+ yard rushing in each of the last four years

Frank Gore rushed for 90 yards or more in a game six times last year. Gore is an outstanding pass-catching RB, but he has seen a decrease in receptions in each of the last three years (61, 53, 43)

Wes Welker had 14 games of six receptions or more in 2008 - and that was without Tom Brady

TJ Houshmandzadeh has at least 90 receptions or more in each of his last three years

Tony Gonzalez is coming off back to back 90-catch seasons. Last year he finished the season with more fantasy points than Brandon Marshall (166 vs. 162).

Willie Parker's rushes, rushing yards, yards per carry, games played, receptions, fantasy points and ranking has decreased in each of the last three years. Parker is still the Steelers #1 RB and should see plenty of carries in 2008. His provides good value and can be had as a RB3 in most drafts

Jason Elam has scored over 100 points in each of his 16 years in the NFL.

Turd Fergusson Draft Analysis

Turd Fergusson Draft Analysis
September 8, 2009

QB: Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger
RB: Chris Johnson, Brian Westbrook, Reggie Bush, Chester Taylor, Shonn Greene
WR: Reggie Wayne, Braylon Edwards, Lance Moore, Chris Henry, James Jones, Devery Henderson, Josh Reed
TE: Visanthe Shiancoe, Donald Lee
PK: Rob Bironas
TD: Baltimore Ravens

Overview:

We think you're looking good at quarterback and running back. Your squad is therefore easy for us to like despite a bit of weakness at the receiver position. But as weaknesses go, this is one is survivable. It's usually relatively easy to find fill-in guys on a weekly basis until a better player emerges during the season. As long as you stay on top of things inseason, you should be among the top teams in the league.

Players we particularly like on this team include Chester Taylor, Braylon Edwards, Chris Henry, Ben Roethlisberger, Reggie Bush, and the Ravens defense. We have all these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.

Bottom line:

With great inseason management, we think you have about a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With good inseason management, we think you have about a 90 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With average inseason management, we think you have a 81 percent chance of making the playoffs.

QB Summary:

You don't need us to tell you this, but we'll tell you anyway: Aaron Rodgers should ensure that your production at the quarterback position is among the best in the league. We have him as the #4 QB according to your scoring rules, and we figure he gives you about a 1.1 point-per-game advantage over an average starting QB.

We also love Ben Roethlisberger as a backup. In fact, we think he's good enough to be someone's starting quarterback in this league. With Rodgers in place as your starter, he's something of a luxury for you. If he plays like we expect, you should be able to get good value for him in a trade after quarterback injuries hit some of your opponents.

Incidentally, Roethlisberger has what we project as a neutral matchup (DET) during Rodgers's bye.

RB Summary:

Your starting running back group is a strength, particularly Brian Westbrook as a second running back. We figure them at a combined 1.0 points per game better than an average opponent in this league. Our projections have Chris Johnson ranked seventh and Westbrook ranked at #14.

Your bench also looks good. We love Reggie Bush as a third running back. We also very much approve of the selection of Chester Taylor, and not just because you can hold the Adrian Peterson owner hostage. He's a fine fourth running back in his own right.

We're not sure that Shonn Greene adds much, as you're already strong at the position and we aren't convinced he's roster-worthy in this league anyway.

Chris Johnson is ranked #2 by some of our writers, which would make him an above average first running back. "Chris Johnson burst onto the scene in his rookie year in 2008, putting up big numbers out of the Tennessee backfield. He was a fantasy RB1 last year (11th in FBG scoring) despite losing many goal line touches to LenDale White. The Titans know that Johnson is their best playmaker and will get him the ball as often as they can in a run-first offense. Should Johnson start to take away some of White's scoring chances, he should finish easily in the Top 10 RBs."

WR Summary:

Depth is a serious concern, but we do like your starting group, particularly Braylon Edwards as a second receiver. Reggie Wayne is our #7 ranked receiver, Edwards is #15, and we have Lance Moore 33rd.

Chris Henry should serve as a very solid fourth receiver. But James Jones is out of his league as a fifth WR.

Though some teams will probably be content to roster as few as five players here, it was not a bad idea to take a few extras because you're not particularly strong overall at the position. Of your remaining guys, we like Devery Henderson the best, but you should keep the one you think has the best chance of putting up starter numbers. The rest might be considered expendable if you find you need roster space elsewhere.

Some of our staffers have Reggie Wayne as high as #2, which would make him an above average first receiver. "Reggie Wayne is Peyton Manning's favorite target these days, doubly so now that old reliable Marvin Harrison has moved on from the Indianapolis squad. During 2007 - in which season Harrison was injured for most of the campaign - Wayne set career highs in targets (156), receptions (104), and yards (1510) - and Wayne had his second-best TD total for a season (10). I look for him to have similar (perhaps even more targets) during 2009 - he's likely to end the season in the same tier as Larry Fitzgerald. Wayne is an elite fantasy WR you can draft in the first round in any scoring format."

Lance Moore is ranked #15 by some of our writers, which would make him a great third receiver and even a legitimate WR2. "Moore gained Drew Brees' trust last season, and there is plenty of receiving work in New Orleans for up to 2 fantasy WRs from the Saints to crack the top 20 at the position. The big question right now is how quickly Moore can come back from his shoulder surgery (torn labrum) and if he'll be 100% by regular season. I think he will, and think that he's going at an attractive discount as of June 1. Having one of Drew Bree's favorite targets on your team is a good thing, in my opinion. "

James Jones is ranked #47 by some of our writers, which would make him a great fifth receiver and even a legitimate WR4. "Green Bay loves to throw the ball, and Aaron Rodgers has shown himself to be a Top 10 fantasy QB in the league. The top two wideout options for the Packers are still Greg Jennings and Donald Driver, but the door is open at WR3. Jones is competing with Jordy Nelson for the job, and the third wideout in the Green Bay passing game can put up some pretty good numbers. After 2009, Driver may be out of the picture so Jones may become the starter."

TE Summary:

This is a pretty motley crew. We don't see Visanthe Shiancoe as a viable starter or Donald Lee as an above average backup. Help is needed.

Some of our staffers have Visanthe Shiancoe as high as #9, which would make him a fine first tight end. "Shiancoe posted a career season last year, with 42/596/7, and appears to have finally "got it" at the NFL level. He's got a terrific surrounding cast at RB and WR on this team, and the team is moving aggressively to upgrade the QB position (whether it is ultimately Sage Rosenfels or Brett Favre throwing the ball during 2009, Shiancoe should fare better than when Tarvaris Jackson and Gus Frerotte were handling the QB duties). I like Shiancoe to repeat or improve on his numbers from 2008, which should place him among the top fantasy TEs in the land again this year. "

Some of our staffers have Donald Lee as high as #20, which would make him a fine second tight end. "Lee's yards-per-reception dropped off last year (39/303/5, for an average of 7.8), but it was a transistion season with Aaron Rodgers in the saddle for the first time. He didn't lose much in the TD department and should bounce back in the yards-per-reception category this season. With a dynamic, top-5 QB in Aaron Rodgers now firmly in the saddle up in Green Bay, Lee should be a solid TE2 for his fantasy owners, a guy with good scoring prospects when the passing matchup is attractive. He'll be a solid backup plan if your TE1 is injured or on bye. The challenge for playing time presented by Jermichael Finley is something to keep an eye on, though."

Kicker Summary:

Rob Bironas, our sixth ranked kicker, won't win the league for you, but he'll do.

Defense Summary:

The Ravens are our #1 ranked defense, so you're in good shape here.

Schedule Analysis

Green means GO (good matchup), red means STOP (bad matchup). Main starters highlighted

At the bottom of the table, the Relative Strength row shows you how strong we project your team to be, relative to your usual strength, in that week. This accounts for byes and matchups.

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Aaron Rodgers	CHI	CIN	STL	MIN		DET	CLE	MIN	TB	DAL	SF	DET	BAL	CHI	PIT	SEA
Ben Roethlisberger	TEN	CHI	CIN	SD	DET	CLE	MIN		DEN	CIN	KC	BAL	OAK	CLE	GB	BAL

Reggie Bush	DET	PHI	BUF	NYJ		NYG	MIA	ATL	CAR	STL	TB	NE	WAS	ATL	DAL	TB
Shonn Greene	HOU	NE	TEN	NO	MIA	BUF	OAK	MIA		JAX	NE	CAR	BUF	TB	ATL	IND
Chris Johnson	PIT	HOU	NYJ	JAX	IND	NE		JAX	SF	BUF	HOU	ARI	IND	STL	MIA	SD
Chester Taylor	CLE	DET	SF	GB	STL	BAL	PIT	GB		DET	SEA	CHI	ARI	CIN	CAR	CHI
Brian Westbrook	CAR	NO	KC		TB	OAK	WAS	NYG	DAL	SD	CHI	WAS	ATL	NYG	SF	DEN

Braylon Edwards	MIN	DEN	BAL	CIN	BUF	PIT	GB	CHI		BAL	DET	CIN	SD	PIT	KC	OAK
Devery Henderson	DET	PHI	BUF	NYJ		NYG	MIA	ATL	CAR	STL	TB	NE	WAS	ATL	DAL	TB
Chris Henry	DEN	GB	PIT	CLE	BAL	HOU	CHI		BAL	PIT	OAK	CLE	DET	MIN	SD	KC
James Jones	CHI	CIN	STL	MIN		DET	CLE	MIN	TB	DAL	SF	DET	BAL	CHI	PIT	SEA
Lance Moore	DET	PHI	BUF	NYJ		NYG	MIA	ATL	CAR	STL	TB	NE	WAS	ATL	DAL	TB
Josh Reed	NE	TB	NO	MIA	CLE	NYJ	CAR	HOU		TEN	JAX	MIA	NYJ	KC	NE	ATL
Reggie Wayne	JAX	MIA	ARI	SEA	TEN		STL	SF	HOU	NE	BAL	HOU	TEN	DEN	JAX	NYJ

Donald Lee	CHI	CIN	STL	MIN		DET	CLE	MIN	TB	DAL	SF	DET	BAL	CHI	PIT	SEA
Visanthe Shiancoe	CLE	DET	SF	GB	STL	BAL	PIT	GB		DET	SEA	CHI	ARI	CIN	CAR	CHI

Rob Bironas	PIT	HOU	NYJ	JAX	IND	NE		JAX	SF	BUF	HOU	ARI	IND	STL	MIA	SD

Baltimore Ravens	KC	SD	CLE	NE	CIN	MIN		DEN	CIN	CLE	IND	PIT	GB	DET	CHI	PIT

Relative Strength	101	100	101	103	95	101	98	106	97	104	100	101	99	104	101	98

Schedule and Matchup Notes:

Please note that the Relative strength numbers above account for both byes and matchups.

Remember that you might have starters on bye in a given week, but still have a high relative strength. This could occur because of favorable matchups, or it might be because you are projected to be missing less production than an average opponent will (your opponents have to deal with byes too).

Week 5 presents serious bye week issues for you: Aaron Rodgers, Reggie Bush, Devery Henderson, James Jones, Lance Moore, and Donald Lee are off.

Week 7 presents moderate bye week issues: Chris Johnson, Rob Bironas, and Baltimore Ravens are not playing.

Shonn Greene, Chester Taylor, Braylon Edwards, Josh Reed, and Visanthe Shiancoe are out in week 9, but your opponent will likely have comparable issues with byes.

Reggie Wayne is out in week 6, but your opponent will likely have comparable issues with byes.

Brian Westbrook is out in week 4, but your opponent will likely have comparable issues with byes.

In weeks 8 and 10 you'll probably be better off than your opponent, as far as byes are concerned.

Potential Free Agents

QB: we don't necessarily recommend any roster moves here.

PK: we don't necessarily recommend any roster moves here.

TD: we don't necessarily recommend any roster moves here.

Projections and Player Summaries

Player	Cmp	Att	YD	Y/A	TD	INT	Rsh	YD	TD	FPT	Rank
Aaron Rodgers	317	528	3791	7.2	25	15	48	180	2	279.6	4
Ben Roethlisberger	295	490	3376	6.9	23	17	34	102	2	239.0	12

Aaron Rodgers - Rodgers had a wonderful season last year, and he has a great group of receivers. His numbers may take a slight downtick if the rushing attack improves, as expected, this season, but he is still likely to throw for 3,800 yards and 26+ touchdowns this season. He was the third-best fantasy quarterback in 2008 and should finish Top 5 once again in 2009.

Ben Roethlisberger - The Steelers want to win games with a tough defense and a clock-chewing ground game which leaves little room for Roethlisberger to put up big numbers unless the team gets in a shootout. Big Ben needs a better offensive line because he took a beating week in and week out in 2008. Sure, he can make big plays when the called play breaks down, but too often he was running for his life behind a porous line. Throwing for 20 TDs would be an improvement for Roethlisberger, and on this Steelers team that could be his ceiling.

Player	Rsh	YD	Y/Rsh	TD	Rec	YD	TD	FPT	Rank
Chris Johnson	245	1152	4.7	8	47	338	2	227.5	7
Brian Westbrook	210	914	4.4	6	50	395	3	199.9	14
Reggie Bush	120	492	4.1	4	60	486	3	164.8	23
Chester Taylor	105	446	4.2	3	41	324	2	122.5	36
Shonn Greene	60	264	4.4	2	5	32	0	41.6	78

Reggie Bush - Bush finds himself at a bit of a career crossroads this year. Of vital importance will be injury news and his rehab. A full recovery and Bush could finally put together that season he's teased us with - meaning obvious fantasy stardom. If he cannot handle a full workload and only plays sparingly then his value will once again be limited, and he could be relegated to a complementary role.

Shonn Greene - Barring injury to both Thomas Jones and Leon Washington, Shonn Greene isn't going to be a feature back in 2009. He probably wouldn't even be a feature back if one of the two got hurt - it would be more of a time share situation. His upside is fairly limited for 2009 in terms of being a consistent fantasy contributor, but he should be fun to watch and someone to remember if injuries open up his opportunity.

Chris Johnson - Johnson has lofty goals for 2009 - and they are goals that are well within his reach. He can be used on every down and may even be split out wide as a receiver. His speed makes him a threat to score every time he touches the ball so he should have good TD totals even though he loses goalline touches.

Chester Taylor - Chester Taylor is a very good back in his own right. In fact, he could likely start for a number of NFL teams around the league. However, Adrian Peterson is poised for another monster season, and the addition of rookie WR Percy Harvin could cut into Taylor's production. Harvin has amazing quickness and will have a number of plays called for him throughout the season. Those include a few runs and hitch passes every game, which could result in fewer touches for Taylor.

Brian Westbrook - Given the likelihood that Westbrook will miss most of training camp, he's far too risky to draft in the 1st round. If he's healthy, he could help someone win their league as a 2nd or 3rd rounder but, let's be honest, he was likely overvalued this year before the news of his surgery. Already showing signs of decline, this new medical concern means you should think long and hard before drafting Westbrook in 2009.

Player	Rsh	YD	Rec	YD	Y/Rec	TD	FPT	Rank
Reggie Wayne	0	0	88	1205	13.7	9	216.0	7
Braylon Edwards	0	0	71	1044	14.7	7	181.9	15
Lance Moore	0	0	62	794	12.8	6	146.4	33
Chris Henry	0	0	58	754	13.0	5	131.9	38
James Jones	0	0	34	428	12.6	3	77.8	75
Devery Henderson	1	6	22	343	15.6	3	63.9	83
Josh Reed	0	0	33	343	10.4	2	62.8	86

Braylon Edwards - Once the QB controversy is settled and the crazy decision to shop Edwards in a trade falls out of memory, the Browns can head into camp focused on getting the job done right. Edwards only benefits from this as a consistent QB helps him return to his top form from 2007. Edwards will reward anyone who takes a shot on him this season.

Devery Henderson - Devery Henderson is a wonderful late-round pick for those who play in survivor leagues, but in week to week matchups his use needs to be carefully considered. His best value is perhaps as a bye week replacement. Some owners with considerable strength at other positions could consider playing Henderson regularly in the hope that he hits a home run, but more often than not he’ll be a weak play, particularly in points per reception leagues.

Chris Henry - The Cincinnati offense should have a solid turnaround this season. With the return of Carson Palmer, the passing lanes will open up for all of the WRs on the Bengals, including Chris Henry. Chad Ochocinco was recently called out by Palmer for missing OTA's, and in the same breath, Palmer praised Henry for a great offseason and said that Henry doesn't want to give 85's spot up. Laveranues Coles is a quality guy, but he isn't going to steal as many targets like T.J. Houshmandzadeh. Those factors should give Henry plenty of chances to redeem himself after two years of subpar performance.

James Jones - James Jones is a talented receiver, but it is unlikely he will move past the fourth spot in the depth charts, because he has had trouble staying healthy in his short career. With three capable receivers in front of him, he probably won't surpass the 30-reception, 400-yard mark in 2009.

Lance Moore - Despite the fantastic unexpected success of Lance Moore in 2008, it is hard to imagine a continuation in 2009. The Saints offense posted absurd numbers, and Moore was the prime beneficiary of injuries to key receivers such as Bush, Colston and Shockey. Because of his offseason shoulder injury, it will also be necessary to follow Moore's progress throughout July & August to determine if he'll be fully fit or faces a delayed return.

Josh Reed - Josh Reed was an important piece of the Bills offense the past few years and Edwards clearly feels comfortable looking for him whenever a play breaks down. Unless the Bills completely change their offensive philosophy from a running team to a passing team, however, he should see a reduction in his already limited fantasy value this year.

Reggie Wayne - We expect Wayne to bounce back from his disappointing 2008 performance. The Colts are dedicated to improving their running game (as shown by the first-round selection of Donald Brown), which should open up the passing game and allow Wayne to face single coverage more often, as he did in 2006 and 2007. Wayne is probably more likely to finish inside the Top 5 than he is to finish outside the Top 10.

Player	Rec	YD	Y/Rec	TD	FPT	Rank
Visanthe Shiancoe	45	491	10.9	4	95.6	14
Donald Lee	20	226	11.3	2	44.6	32

Donald Lee - There's little reason to believe Donald Lee's numbers will look different than the past two seasons. His yards-per-reception will likely increase, but that would be natural flow back to his career average. Jermichael Finley should be ready to make a bigger contribution in his second season, so Lee has little upside this year.

Visanthe Shiancoe - Shiancoe set career bests in receptions, yards and touchdowns, but some of that success stemmed from mediocre play at the receiver position. The WR corps should improve this season, and that should keep Shiancoe from matching last year's Top 10 finish.

Player	FGM	FGA	XPM	XPA	FPT	Rank
Rob Bironas	31	37	41	41	118.5	6

Rob Bironas - After two years of being bailed out by Gary Anderson, the second highest scorer in NFL history with 2434 points, the Titans were determined to find a placekicker who can also kickoff, and settled on a kicker with zero NFL points going into 2005. After his first four years, Bironas is now up to 457 career NFL points. Back in 2003, the Titans ranked 3rd in kicker scoring. They dropped off the following three years; ranking 26th, 21st, and 21st. In 2007 they jumped back up to 3rd in kicker scoring as Bironas tallied 133 points. They remained in the top ten (7th) last year with Bironas' 127 points. Had the team not clinched a playoff spot early and thus written off week 17, they probably would have scored even more kicking points. For 2009, the offense enters their second year under offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger. It's difficult in today's NFL for teams to string together three consecutive top ten fishes in kicker scoring, however the Titans are in position to do just that.

Player	Sack	FR	INT	TD	Yd/G	Pt/G	FPT	Rank
Baltimore Ravens	38	12	21	7	281	18.2	219.5	1

Baltimore Ravens - Baltimore finished near the top of nearly all important defensive categories in 2008. Second in yards allowed, third in scoring, top three against both run and pass, but the most telling statistics for fantasy owners were the league leading 26 interceptions, 31 total takeaways and six touchdowns. The club lost ILB Bart Scott to free agency but have Tavares Gooden waiting in the wings to replace him. They released former starter Chris McAlister who missed most of last season anyway, then added veteran Dominique Foxworth and drafted Lardarius Webb who they believe will eventually start for them. They get DE Kelly Gregg back from injury and used a second round pick on OLB Paul Kruger to boost the pass rush that produced the 10th most sacks in the league. The Ravens have added some young talent and lost very little. They may be even better than last year.

Fun facts

Chris Johnson had nearly 1500 total yards from scrimmage in his rookie season. Seven of Johnson's 10 total TDs occurred at home last year

Brian Westbrook averaged 95.5 total yards per game last year and scored 14 total TDs. He has three consecutive years of double-digit TDs scored

Reggie Wayne has at least 82 receptions in each of his last four years. Wayne has played every game for the Colts since 2003. On the down side, Wayne has only two multiple TD games since 2004. In five games last year, he had three catches or fewer

Aaron Rodgers is coming off his first full season as a starter that saw him reach 4000 yards passing and 28 TD passes

Braylon Edwards has three consecutive years of at least 123 targets. He has 13 red zone receptions in the last two years of which 11 went for TDs

Reggie Bush has more career receiving yards than rushing yards. He averages 5.6 receptions per game in his brief career, which is outstanding for a RB

Rob Bironas owns the NFL record of making the most field goals in one game, after hitting 8 of 8 in a 2007 game at Houston.

TurkeyCreek_Nate Draft Analysis

TurkeyCreek_Nate Draft Analysis
September 8, 2009

QB: Tom Brady
RB: Matt Forte, Larry Johnson, Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, Correll Buckhalter
WR: Santonio Holmes, Terrell Owens, Steve Smith, Chris Chambers, Mark Bradley, Deion Branch
TE: Jeremy Shockey, Vernon Davis
PK: Adam Vinatieri
TD: Dallas Cowboys

Overview:

Players we particularly like on this team include Tom Brady, Matt Forte, and Vernon Davis. We have all these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.

Bottom line:

With great inseason management, we think you have about a 70 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With good inseason management, we think you have about a 55 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With average inseason management, we think you have a 38 percent chance of making the playoffs.

In any event, we wish you the best of luck. Here's hoping all your weeks are like week 9 of 2007: Terrell Owens vs. PHI: 174 receiving yards, 1 TD
Santonio Holmes vs. BAL: 110 receiving yards, 2 TD
Larry Johnson vs. GB: 95 combined yards, 2 TD
Tom Brady vs. IND: 255 passing yards, 3 TD

QB Summary:

You don't need us to tell you this, but we'll tell you anyway: Tom Brady should ensure that your production at the quarterback position is among the best in the league. We have him as the #1 QB according to your scoring rules, and we figure he gives you about a 3.3 point-per-game advantage over an average starting QB.

Despite your strong starting quarterback, we strongly recommend taking a backup. See the end of this report for some specific suggestions.

RB Summary:

Your starting running backs should, as a unit, be adequate but not great. In particular we like Matt Forte as a top RB. Our projections have Forte ranked at #3 and Larry Johnson ranked 24th.

Jamaal Charles is a handcuff, but we'd like him as a third running back even if you didn't have Larry Johnson. LeSean McCoy is shaky as a fourth running back.

Because you're not particularly strong overall at the position, adding some depth here was a good idea. But we're not convinced Correll Buckhalter is the right player for the job. Check the end of the report for some alternative suggestions.

Some of our staffers have Larry Johnson as high as #13, which would make him an above average second running back. "Larry Johnson has not seen much action in the last 2 seasons, but they may turn out to be a boon as he needed some time to recover from the brutal '05 and '06 seasons. He seems to have his head screwed on straight now (part of the reason he fell out of favor with the Herm Edwards/Carl Peterson regime was due to off-field incidents), and he won't be 30 until November. I don't see a lot of talent behind him at RB (Jamaal Charles is more suited as a 3rd down back/change of pace option at this level), so I think he's in an excellent position to regain his role as lead back/starter in this new offense. He probably won't log 400 carries again, but I think he'll get plenty of work (20+ carries a game, 2-3 receptions per game) and be on the cusp of RB1 production, making him an excellent RB2 or RB3 option for fantasy owners (he should out-produce those roster slots, in my opinion). Johnson hasn't made waves during training camp and looks poised to be the starting RB in KC again this year."

Some members of our staff have Jamaal Charles ranked as high as 32nd, which would make him a fine third running back. "Charles will see more time this season than as a rookie. The new coaching staff will use him in space. The new coaching staff (and front office) will find ways to get the former Longhorn the ball in the open field. The poor Chief defense will keep the offense in obvious passing situations. Charles could easily have a bigger season than Johnson."

Correll Buckhalter is ranked #45 by some of our writers, which would make him a great fifth running back and even a legitimate RB4. "Knowshon Moreno should be a feature back sooner rather than later, but Buckhalter has run with the 1st team all preseason and could be a great start for the first few weeks of the season."

WR Summary:

We see all your starters at receiver as below average. Santonio Holmes is our #18 ranked receiver, Terrell Owens is #21, and we have Steve Smith 40th.

Chris Chambers is a little below average as a fourth receiver. But Mark Bradley should be a fairly good WR5.

Because you're not particularly strong overall at the position, adding some depth here was a good idea. But we're not convinced Deion Branch is the right player for the job. Check the end of the report for some alternative suggestions.

Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:

Santonio Holmes is ranked #13 by some of our writers. "The time is right for Santonio Holmes to step up and be an even better complimentary wideout for Pittsburgh. Hines Ward is still the top option, but Nate Washington is gone and Ward's knees are not getting any better. Ben Roethlisberger has a big arm and can move the offense quickly, so Holmes is poised to become the true deep threat and eventually a true top option once Ward starts to pass the reins. The analogy here is similar to the Packers, where Ward = Donald Driver and Holmes = Greg Jennings. "

Some of our staffers have Terrell Owens as high as #12, which would make him a great second receiver and even a legitimate WR1. "I was high on Owens, ranking him as high as WR8 at points this offseason. But his toe injury combined with his advancing age and the sorry state of the Bills offensive line gives me pause. I still couldn't pass him up if he fell to a point where he would be my WR2, but I no longer view him as a solid WR1."

Steve Smith is ranked #31 by some of our writers, which would make him a fine third receiver. "Steve Smith and Domenik Hixon have been the clear cut starters all offseason, and the much hyped additions of rookies Hakeem Nicks and Ramses Barden really haven't shown themselves to be credible threats for playing time this year, at least in the opening weeks. Smith quietly caught almost 60 receptions last year, and his youth and role argue for a lot more upside than the receivers going at comparable ADP."

Some of our staffers have Chris Chambers as high as #33, which would make him a great fourth receiver and even a legitimate WR3. "Did I miss when Chris Chambers fell off the planet? It seems that everyone is overlooking him as a receiver for the Chargers. Vincent Jackson had a nice run last year, but Chambers has better talent and only needs to be healthy to be the top WR for San Diego. He has finished as a Top 25 WR in three of his nine career seasons but now is viewed as a risky pick due to injury. Considering you can grab him with a later fantasy selection in 2009 (ADP has him outside of Top 40 WRs), he represents good upside as a guy who has "been there, done that" three times over."

TE Summary:

Jeremy Shockey is just OK as a starting tight end (we have him ranked #12). So the selection of Vernon Davis, who we see as a solid backup, was wise.

Kicker Summary:

Adam Vinatieri, our 13th ranked kicker, is below average but probably adequate.

Defense Summary:

When you don't have an elite defense, one option is a committee approach. That is, try to get two cheap defenses whose schedules fit well together. Here are a few teams who we think may be available and whose schedules fit best with the Cowboys', along with the combined schedule that each would create:

Cowboys + Texans   =   NYJ | TEN | CAR | OAK | KC | CIN | ATL | SEA | PHI | GB | TEN | OAK | NYG | SEA | STL | MIA
Cowboys + Redskins   =   NYG | STL | DET | DEN | KC | KC | ATL | SEA | ATL | DEN | WAS | OAK | NYG | OAK | NYG | WAS
Cowboys + Seahawks   =   STL | NYG | CHI | DEN | KC | ARI | ATL | SEA | DET | ARI | MIN | OAK | NYG | SD | NO | WAS

Schedule Analysis

Green means GO (good matchup), red means STOP (bad matchup). Main starters highlighted

At the bottom of the table, the Relative Strength row shows you how strong we project your team to be, relative to your usual strength, in that week. This accounts for byes and matchups.

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Tom Brady	BUF	NYJ	ATL	BAL	DEN	TEN	TB		MIA	IND	NYJ	NO	MIA	CAR	BUF	JAX

Correll Buckhalter	CIN	CLE	OAK	DAL	NE	SD		BAL	PIT	WAS	SD	NYG	KC	IND	OAK	PHI
Jamaal Charles	BAL	OAK	PHI	NYG	DAL	WAS	SD		JAX	OAK	PIT	SD	DEN	BUF	CLE	CIN
Matt Forte	GB	PIT	SEA	DET		ATL	CIN	CLE	ARI	SF	PHI	MIN	STL	GB	BAL	MIN
Larry Johnson	BAL	OAK	PHI	NYG	DAL	WAS	SD		JAX	OAK	PIT	SD	DEN	BUF	CLE	CIN
LeSean McCoy	CAR	NO	KC		TB	OAK	WAS	NYG	DAL	SD	CHI	WAS	ATL	NYG	SF	DEN

Mark Bradley	BAL	OAK	PHI	NYG	DAL	WAS	SD		JAX	OAK	PIT	SD	DEN	BUF	CLE	CIN
Deion Branch	STL	SF	CHI	IND	JAX	ARI		DAL	DET	ARI	MIN	STL	SF	HOU	TB	GB
Chris Chambers	OAK	BAL	MIA	PIT		DEN	KC	OAK	NYG	PHI	DEN	KC	CLE	DAL	CIN	TEN
Santonio Holmes	TEN	CHI	CIN	SD	DET	CLE	MIN		DEN	CIN	KC	BAL	OAK	CLE	GB	BAL
Terrell Owens	NE	TB	NO	MIA	CLE	NYJ	CAR	HOU		TEN	JAX	MIA	NYJ	KC	NE	ATL
Steve Smith	WAS	DAL	TB	KC	OAK	NO	ARI	PHI	SD		ATL	DEN	DAL	PHI	WAS	CAR

Vernon Davis	ARI	SEA	MIN	STL	ATL		HOU	IND	TEN	CHI	GB	JAX	SEA	ARI	PHI	DET
Jeremy Shockey	DET	PHI	BUF	NYJ		NYG	MIA	ATL	CAR	STL	TB	NE	WAS	ATL	DAL	TB

Adam Vinatieri	JAX	MIA	ARI	SEA	TEN		STL	SF	HOU	NE	BAL	HOU	TEN	DEN	JAX	NYJ

Dallas Cowboys	TB	NYG	CAR	DEN	KC		ATL	SEA	PHI	GB	WAS	OAK	NYG	SD	NO	WAS

Relative Strength	98	98	100	106	98	104	105	86	103	101	99	99	100	100	99	100

Schedule and Matchup Notes:

Please note that the Relative strength numbers above account for both byes and matchups.

Remember that you might have starters on bye in a given week, but still have a high relative strength. This could occur because of favorable matchups, or it might be because you are projected to be missing less production than an average opponent will (your opponents have to deal with byes too).

Week 8 presents serious bye week issues for you: Tom Brady, Jamaal Charles, Larry Johnson, Mark Bradley, and Santonio Holmes are off.

Week 5 presents moderate bye week issues: Matt Forte, Chris Chambers, and Jeremy Shockey are not playing.

Steve Smith is out in week 10, but your opponent will likely have comparable issues with byes.

In weeks 4, 6, 7, and 9 you'll probably be better off than your opponent, as far as byes are concerned.

Potential Free Agents

QB: Kyle Orton (7), Brett Favre (9), Matt Cassel (8), Chad Pennington (6), Shaun Hill (6), Jake Delhomme (4), JaMarcus Russell (9), Mark Sanchez (9), Kerry Collins (7), Byron Leftwich (8), Marc Bulger (9), Matthew Stafford (7), Brady Quinn (9), Derek Anderson (9), Michael Vick (4), Daunte Culpepper (7), Vince Young (7), Kyle Boller (9), Matt Leinart (4).

TE: Owen Daniels (10), Zach Miller (9), John Carlson (7), Dustin Keller (9), Jeremy Shockey (5), Heath Miller (8), Visanthe Shiancoe (9), Brent Celek (4), Anthony Fasano (6), Vernon Davis (6).

PK: Ryan Longwell (9), Nick Folk (6), Lawrence Tynes (10), Robbie Gould (5), Kris Brown (10), Adam Vinatieri (6), Jeff Reed (8), John Kasay (4), Josh Scobee (7), Joe Nedney (6).

Projections and Player Summaries

Player	Cmp	Att	YD	Y/A	TD	INT	Rsh	YD	TD	FPT	Rank
Tom Brady	371	571	4191	7.3	33	14	31	53	1	314.9	1

Tom Brady - It's unlikely the Patriots offense will take a nosedive with Brady coming back. Given the arsenal Brady has to work with, he should be in for another Top 5 fantasy season if healthy. He has already displayed what could happen if all the planets align properly and could lap many other QBs in fantasy scoring. However, the Pats have bulked up their running attack and may try to implement more of a ball-control offense in order to keep their defense off the field more than in recent seasons. That could also lead to a lot of dink and dunk passes - something Matt Cassel made a living on last year and a scheme the Patriots have used at times with Brady.

Player	Rsh	YD	Y/Rsh	TD	Rec	YD	TD	FPT	Rank
Matt Forte	300	1185	4.0	8	59	413	3	250.3	3
Larry Johnson	220	935	4.2	7	20	136	1	160.1	24
Jamaal Charles	120	528	4.4	3	38	285	2	125.3	34
LeSean McCoy	110	457	4.2	3	29	203	2	105.5	49
Correll Buckhalter	70	301	4.3	2	9	59	0	52.5	67

Correll Buckhalter - Correll Buckhalter is good at everything but not great at any one thing. He should serve as the primary backup to Knowshon Moreno and will see some time on third downs. His fantasy value shouldn't be too high if Moreno lives up to the hype, but Buckhalter will be a valuable handcuff for all Moreno owners.

Jamaal Charles - HC Todd Haley knows that he can't go to Larry Johnson in passing situations, and this could be a year where the Chiefs are forced to throw the ball a lot while they play catch up. It's not crazy to project Charles to get a significant number of touches this season, and is worth a late round draft choice in PPR leagues especially.

Matt Forte - Forte had a surprisingly effective first fantasy season in 2008, finishing as the fourth-best RB. In all likelihood, he will improve in a number of areas this season including his YPC that was an uninspiring 3.9 in 2008. With the Bears having upgraded the offensive line, Forte should have another very strong season. He is likely to receive the bulk of the work once again and should have no problem hitting 300 carries. He should easily finish in the Top 12 with a ceiling approaching the Top 3.

Larry Johnson - Johnson should get plenty of carries this year for the Chiefs, and he likely will be the primary option when they get inside the 5-yard line. They probably won't throw to him more than a couple of times per game, so don't expect a lot of receiving yards from the big back. That lack of receiving (and operating in a poor offense) puts a lid on Johnson's potential.

LeSean McCoy - LeSean McCoy should find a role as the RB2 and see several touches per game, which would make him worthy of a roster spot. Should Brian Westbrook get hurt, McCoy would be an immediate starter in most fantasy leagues and an absolute no brainer in PPR leagues.

Player	Rsh	YD	Rec	YD	Y/Rec	TD	FPT	Rank
Santonio Holmes	2	10	66	954	14.5	7	171.4	18
Terrell Owens	0	0	66	917	13.9	7	166.7	21
Steve Smith	1	5	60	702	11.7	5	130.7	40
Chris Chambers	1	6	46	635	13.8	4	111.1	49
Mark Bradley	0	0	44	546	12.4	3	94.6	57
Deion Branch	0	0	26	315	12.1	2	56.5	93

Mark Bradley - Mark Bradley has seemingly gotten his career back on track, but nothing stays the same in the NFL. If healthy Bradley could be a nice compliment to Dwayne Bowe, but even though he's the No. 2 on the depth chart, his numbers could be smaller than slot receiver Bobby Engram.

Deion Branch - If Deion Branch is fully recovered from the knee injury that set him back in each of the last two years, he could play a prominent role in the Seahawks offense and be a strong fantasy WR3, if not better. But he carries a lot of risk since he faces serious competition for playing time from Nate Burleson and Deon Butler. Once 40+ receivers have gone off the board, Branch becomes an attractive pick based on his upside potential.

Chris Chambers - If Chris Chambers can stay healthy, regaining the one touchdown-per-game pace he set in the first five games of 2008 is not impossible. If veterans Antonio Gates and Ladainian Tomlinson, and impending free agent Malcom Floyd avoid the nagging injuries that plagued them last year, Chambers will be no higher than 4A in the pecking order. Chambers is a solid bye week/injury WR in non-PPR leagues, but his production will be inconsistent as long as the Chargers maintain their full compliment of weapons on offense and get more from their running game this year.

Santonio Holmes - Holmes had a fantastic postseason and looks to continue that hot streak into 2009. Holmes even proved to be a better receiver in the red zone than many had given him credit for. He'll be a top target when Roethlisberger is scrambling around looking for positive yards on a broken play. Holmes shouldn't be a Top 10 fantasy WR in 2009 but should be a consistent WR2 for his fantasy owners.

Terrell Owens - When healthy and motivated, there are few receivers in the league who are better than Owens. Despite the problems he has had in recent years, he has still managed to pull in 38 TDs over the past three seasons. Owens is extremely well conditioned and known more for his strength and run after the catch ability than his pure speed. It would be a surprise if a player of his ability did not manage to produce like a WR1.

Steve Smith - Steve Smith is the odds on favorite to win a starting spot opposite Domenik Hixon, but for how long? The Giants would like nothing more than to see Hakeem Nicks and Ramses Barden command major roles as rookies, so Smith needs to bring his "A" game and keep the intensity all season long. Realistically, expect another 50-catch season from Smith with a few touchdown receptions for good measure.

Player	Rec	YD	Y/Rec	TD	FPT	Rank
Jeremy Shockey	50	545	10.9	4	103.5	12
Vernon Davis	42	491	11.7	4	92.2	17

Vernon Davis - Davis' stats declined from his 50-catch performance in 2007. He'll need to rebound to justify his hefty price the 49ers paid in drafting him. Fantasy scoring doesn't reward great blocking, so he'll need to be more active in the passing attack to be fantasy relevant again. He is capable of more, so it could be worth a late round flyer.

Jeremy Shockey - Can Shockey still be a top fantasy TE? He should be a major part of a productive offense, but beware of taking him based on his reputation. He averaged less than 10 yards per catch and didn't score a touchdown last year. Add in his injury history, and you must exercise caution before taking him too early. If he freefalls on draft day, be ready to pounce.

Player	FGM	FGA	XPM	XPA	FPT	Rank
Adam Vinatieri	27	35	44	44	111.5	13

Adam Vinatieri - Vinatieri played in all 16 games the last two years, after having battled injuries and missing three games in 2006. Last year he made two field goals from 50+ yards, ending a five year drought in that category. Vinatieri still does well on kickoffs, averaging at least 65 yards each of the last three years and averaging 9 touchbacks a year during that time. Even if Vinatieri's field goal percentages have slipped a little, the Colts' offense typically offsets that. Even though they slipped a little during the first half of last year, they regrouped during the second half. That can be seen in Vinatieri's 103 points, only 37 of which were in the first eight games while 66 came in the final eight games. Opportunities are more important than accuracy in most fantasy scoring systems. Over the past thirteen years, Indianapolis has finished 23rd, 10th, 4th, 5th, 3rd, 2nd, 19th, 2nd, 6th, 1st, 14th, 7th, and 2nd in kicker scoring. Many key members of the coaching staff retired this off-season, and have been replaced from within the organization. Vinatieri and the Colts may not be the juggernaut of old, but they should be able to improve slightly upon their 2008 numbers.

Player	Sack	FR	INT	TD	Yd/G	Pt/G	FPT	Rank
Dallas Cowboys	49	12	14	5	300	21.5	181.0	16

Dallas Cowboys - The Cowboys led the league in sacks last season, averaging over three-and-a-half per game. Four players had seven or more sacks, led by OLB DeMarcus Ware's league best of 20. Poor finishes in points against, interceptions (only eight) and just two combined defensive and special teams touchdowns kept them from finishing in the top five in most fantasy leagues. Though Dallas lost underrated DE Chris Canty and nickel backer Kevin Burnett, the bulk of the defense remains intact. Jay Ratliff has played much bigger than his size at the nose and should continue to be a disruptive force in the middle.Bradie James has blossomed into a strong all-around linebacker and free agent acquisition Keith Brooking will give the team another solid veteran presence in the middle. FS Ken Hamlin and CB Terence Newman anchor the secondary. The aggressive 3-4 front favored by head coach Wade Phillips should keep the pass rush numbers high. If the Cowboys can improve their points-against numbers and generate more big plays in the secondary, they have Top 5 upside.

Fun facts

Matt Forte was the first rookie RB to eclipse 300 carries since LaDainian Tomlinson did it in 2001

Tom Brady is returning from an injured knee and his last full season where he set career highs in nearly every category

Terrell Owens has finished in the top 10 seven times in the last nine years, with six of those in the top five. He had 14 TDs in his first year with Philadelphia and 13 TDs in his first year with Dallas.

Larry Johnson averaged 5.6 YPC in six games at home last year compared to 3.5 YPC in six games on the road

Santonio Holmes never had more than five catches in a game - until the Super Bowl where he went off for 9 rec, 131 and the famous game-winning TD. His only 100-yard game of the year

Adam Vinatieri is a distant cousin of Evil Knievel.

Tyrannical Teabaggers Draft Analysis

Tyrannical Teabaggers Draft Analysis
September 8, 2009

QB: Jay Cutler, Brett Favre
RB: Kevin Smith, Knowshon Moreno, Fred Jackson, Darren Sproles, Felix Jones, LenDale White, James Davis, Bernard Scott
WR: Larry Fitzgerald, Greg Jennings, Jerricho Cotchery, Laurent Robinson, Patrick Crayton
TE: John Carlson
PK: John Kasay
TD: Green Bay Packers

Overview:

Your receivers are the strongest part of this team. While no team can be expected to be above average at all three core positions (QB/RB/WR), you are in the precarious position of being a bit weak at two of them.

Although you should not be counted out yet, you may need to be active on both the waiver wire and in trades to turn this team into a legitimate contender. The best way to achieve that might be to sacrifice some of your wide receiver strength to gain multiple players than can help your roster now. It's generally easier finding quarterbacks and wide receivers on the waiver wire than quality running backs.

For instance, last year, useful quarterbacks like Matt Cassel, Tyler Thigpen, Matt Ryan, and Joe Flacco likely went undrafted. Even Kurt Warner wasn't drafted in early leagues. Likewise, running backs like Steve Slaton, Chris Johnson, Le'Ron McClain, Derrick Ward all could be had dirt cheap at the draft or shortly after. You are likely going to need to land some of this year's top waiver plays, so pay close attention to increased workloads, targets, injuries, etc.

Players we particularly like on this team include Jerricho Cotchery, Bernard Scott, and James Davis. We have all these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.

Bottom line:

With great inseason management, we think you have about a 85 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With good inseason management, we think you have about a 75 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With average inseason management, we think you have a 62 percent chance of making the playoffs.

QB Summary:

We have Jay Cutler rated #8 among quarterbacks, which makes him a viable starter if not an exciting one. And we're not crazy about Brett Favre (ranked #21 among quarterbacks) as a backup. If Cutler turns in the season we expect, this position won't ruin you, but it probably won't be a strength either. And if things go wrong, it could be a long year at QB.

Incidentally, Favre has what we project as a neutral matchup (STL) during Cutler's bye.

RB Summary:

We see both your starters at running back as below average. Our projections have Kevin Smith ranked at #16 and Knowshon Moreno ranked at #26.

Your bench looks good and should help offset the unexciting starting unit. Fred Jackson should be a good third running back. We also very much approve of the selection of Darren Sproles, and not just because you can hold the LaDainian Tomlinson owner hostage. He's a fine fourth running back in his own right.

Though some teams will probably be content to roster as few as four players here, it was not a bad idea to take a few extras because you're not particularly strong overall at the position. Of your remaining guys, we like Felix Jones the best, but you should keep the one you think has the best chance of putting up starter numbers. The rest might be considered expendable if you find you need roster space elsewhere.

Some members of our staff have Kevin Smith ranked as high as 12th, which would make him a fine first running back. "In an age with very few backs getting consistent carries, Smith is a great value in drafts. The offense should be improved some and Smith will be a good RB2 for fantasy owners. "

Some of our staffers have Knowshon Moreno as high as #15, which would make him an above average second running back. "Every season there seems to be at least one rookie running back that hits the scene and puts up big numbers. Moreno, the top overall rookie at the position in this year's NFL Draft, seems to be the most likely candidate. Denver had attempted to throw as many veterans as possible to their rushing attack for 2009 before they decided to grab Moreno in Round 1 in April. Denver will not have Jay Cutler to rely upon for a big passing game, and new head coach Josh McDaniel thinks Moreno can be a feature back. Grabbing the rookie as a fantasy RB3 leaves lots of easily attained upside for the young tailback."

Some of our staffers have Fred Jackson as high as #19, which would make him a great third running back and even a legitimate RB2. Jason Wood's take: "The Bills coaches can't stop talking about this guy, the Bills are going to use a true committee this year. With Lynch facing suspension, Jackson could be a stud in the early weeks and a reliable backup thereafter."

WR Summary:

Nice work here. We like all your starting receivers, as our projections indicate that they give you a combined 4.8 point-per-game advantage over an average opponent in this league. Larry Fitzgerald is our #1 ranked receiver, Greg Jennings is #6, and we have Jerricho Cotchery 25th.

We don't particularly like Laurent Robinson as a fourth receiver. Patrick Crayton also looks somewhat weak as a fifth WR.

Some of our staffers have Laurent Robinson as high as #46, which would make him a fine fourth receiver. "Robinson flew right past Keenan Burton to emerge as the starter alongside Donnie Avery."

Some of our staffers have Patrick Crayton as high as #39, which would make him a great fifth receiver and even a legitimate WR4. "Crayton is one of the players who figures to benefit from the departure of Terrell Owens to Buffalo. Tony Romo hasn't forgotten how to play QB, and the team has an all-world TE in Jason Witten to worry opposing defenses. Assuming that Roy Williams' progress in the Dallas offense is as impressive as the team is hinting this offseason, Crayton should be able to find room to roam early and often during 2009. He's the favorite to win a starting WR job in Dallas, in my opinion, and when your QB routinely throws 30-40 balls per contest (as Romo does), a starting WR in that offense figures to haul in a consistent stream of balls week in and week out. "

TE Summary:

John Carlson, who we have ranked #10, is below average but probably adequate as a starting tight end. You might get by with only Carlson, but some additional help here probably wouldn't hurt.

Some of our staffers have John Carlson as high as #7, which would make him a fine first tight end. "Carlson was astoundingly good as a rookie and that portends greatness in Year Two and beyond. He's a true 2-way TE and will play in all downs and distances. With Matt Hasselbeck healthy, expect this young TE to cement himself among the top players at his position for years to come."

Kicker Summary:

We don't think John Kasay is starter quality in this league. Keep a sharp eye on the waiver wire.

Defense Summary:

The Packers are probably not a difference-maker at defense, but they should be OK.

When you don't have an elite defense, one option is a committee approach. That is, try to get two cheap defenses whose schedules fit well together. Here are a few teams who we think may be available and whose schedules fit best with the Packers', along with the combined schedule that each would create:

Packers + Texans   =   CHI | TEN | STL | OAK | ARI | DET | SF | BUF | TB | DAL | TEN | DET | BAL | SEA | STL | SEA
Packers + Cowboys   =   CHI | NYG | STL | MIN | KC | DET | ATL | SEA | PHI | GB | SF | OAK | BAL | CHI | NO | SEA
Packers + Colts   =   CHI | MIA | ARI | SEA | TEN | DET | STL | SF | HOU | NE | BAL | DET | TEN | CHI | PIT | SEA

Schedule Analysis

Green means GO (good matchup), red means STOP (bad matchup). Main starters highlighted

At the bottom of the table, the Relative Strength row shows you how strong we project your team to be, relative to your usual strength, in that week. This accounts for byes and matchups.

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Jay Cutler	GB	PIT	SEA	DET		ATL	CIN	CLE	ARI	SF	PHI	MIN	STL	GB	BAL	MIN
Brett Favre	CLE	DET	SF	GB	STL	BAL	PIT	GB		DET	SEA	CHI	ARI	CIN	CAR	CHI

James Davis	MIN	DEN	BAL	CIN	BUF	PIT	GB	CHI		BAL	DET	CIN	SD	PIT	KC	OAK
Fred Jackson	NE	TB	NO	MIA	CLE	NYJ	CAR	HOU		TEN	JAX	MIA	NYJ	KC	NE	ATL
Felix Jones	TB	NYG	CAR	DEN	KC		ATL	SEA	PHI	GB	WAS	OAK	NYG	SD	NO	WAS
Knowshon Moreno	CIN	CLE	OAK	DAL	NE	SD		BAL	PIT	WAS	SD	NYG	KC	IND	OAK	PHI
Bernard Scott	DEN	GB	PIT	CLE	BAL	HOU	CHI		BAL	PIT	OAK	CLE	DET	MIN	SD	KC
Kevin Smith	NO	MIN	WAS	CHI	PIT	GB		STL	SEA	MIN	CLE	GB	CIN	BAL	ARI	SF
Darren Sproles	OAK	BAL	MIA	PIT		DEN	KC	OAK	NYG	PHI	DEN	KC	CLE	DAL	CIN	TEN
LenDale White	PIT	HOU	NYJ	JAX	IND	NE		JAX	SF	BUF	HOU	ARI	IND	STL	MIA	SD

Jerricho Cotchery	HOU	NE	TEN	NO	MIA	BUF	OAK	MIA		JAX	NE	CAR	BUF	TB	ATL	IND
Patrick Crayton	TB	NYG	CAR	DEN	KC		ATL	SEA	PHI	GB	WAS	OAK	NYG	SD	NO	WAS
Larry Fitzgerald	SF	JAX	IND		HOU	SEA	NYG	CAR	CHI	SEA	STL	TEN	MIN	SF	DET	STL
Greg Jennings	CHI	CIN	STL	MIN		DET	CLE	MIN	TB	DAL	SF	DET	BAL	CHI	PIT	SEA
Laurent Robinson	SEA	WAS	GB	SF	MIN	JAX	IND	DET		NO	ARI	SEA	CHI	TEN	HOU	ARI

John Carlson	STL	SF	CHI	IND	JAX	ARI		DAL	DET	ARI	MIN	STL	SF	HOU	TB	GB

John Kasay	PHI	ATL	DAL		WAS	TB	BUF	ARI	NO	ATL	MIA	NYJ	TB	NE	MIN	NYG

Green Bay Packers	CHI	CIN	STL	MIN		DET	CLE	MIN	TB	DAL	SF	DET	BAL	CHI	PIT	SEA

Relative Strength	99	100	101	100	93	105	95	111	94	101	100	99	100	98	102	101

Schedule and Matchup Notes:

Please note that the Relative strength numbers above account for both byes and matchups.

Remember that you might have starters on bye in a given week, but still have a high relative strength. This could occur because of favorable matchups, or it might be because you are projected to be missing less production than an average opponent will (your opponents have to deal with byes too).

Week 5 presents serious bye week issues for you: Jay Cutler, Darren Sproles, Greg Jennings, and Green Bay Packers are off.

Week 7 presents serious bye week issues for you: Knowshon Moreno, Kevin Smith, LenDale White, and John Carlson are off.

Week 9 presents moderate bye week issues: Brett Favre, James Davis, Fred Jackson, Jerricho Cotchery, and Laurent Robinson are not playing.

Larry Fitzgerald and John Kasay are out in week 4, but your opponent will likely have comparable issues with byes.

In weeks 6, 8, and 10 you'll probably be better off than your opponent, as far as byes are concerned.

Potential Free Agents

QB: Kyle Orton (7), Brett Favre (9), Matt Cassel (8), Chad Pennington (6), Shaun Hill (6), Jake Delhomme (4), JaMarcus Russell (9), Mark Sanchez (9), Kerry Collins (7), Byron Leftwich (8).

TE: Owen Daniels (10), Zach Miller (9), John Carlson (7), Dustin Keller (9), Jeremy Shockey (5), Heath Miller (8), Visanthe Shiancoe (9), Brent Celek (4), Anthony Fasano (6), Vernon Davis (6).

PK: Ryan Longwell (9), Nick Folk (6), Lawrence Tynes (10), Robbie Gould (5), Kris Brown (10), Adam Vinatieri (6), Jeff Reed (8), John Kasay (4), Josh Scobee (7), Joe Nedney (6).

TD: Chicago Bears (5), New England Patriots (8), Green Bay Packers (5), New York Jets (9), Seattle Seahawks (7), Miami Dolphins (6), Buffalo Bills (9), Indianapolis Colts (6), Dallas Cowboys (6), Washington Redskins (8).

Projections and Player Summaries

Player	Cmp	Att	YD	Y/A	TD	INT	Rsh	YD	TD	FPT	Rank
Jay Cutler	327	530	3535	6.7	23	16	47	162	1	248.9	8
Brett Favre	274	460	3151	6.8	21	19	25	13	0	204.8	21

Jay Cutler - Without question, the Bears weapons on offense are not as skilled as what Cutler enjoyed in Denver. The receiving position is still a huge question mark with Devin Hester not a legitimate top receiver and Rashied Davis still unproven. Even the backup receivers have huge question marks as players such as Earl Bennett and rookie Joaquin Iglesias are unproven at this level (although Bennett has looked great so far in minicamp). However, Cutler is cut from the same cloth as QB Brett Favre. He has a certain swagger about him, and it is very probable he will make the players better around him with his ability to get the ball down the field. He is a huge upgrade to the position in Chicago.

Brett Favre - Brett Favre has finally made a decision that should stick, by putting his John Hancock on a 2-year, $25mm contract in Minnesota. He'll be the starter and has a surprisingly enticing collection of weapons. Berrian is a 1,000-yard receiver with Favre at the helm, Shiancoe was a Top 5 fantasy TE last year, rookie Percy Harvin has big play ability and, of course, Adrian Peterson is going to keep defenses more than honest. Expect Favre to throw for 3,200-3,400 yards and 20-22 TDs if he plays 16 games, but also remember he'll likely be at or near the top of the league in turnovers, too. Favre, at this stage of his career, is a middling fantasy QB2 who probably will be overdrafted by owners hoping for a miracle comeback season.

Player	Rsh	YD	Y/Rsh	TD	Rec	YD	TD	FPT	Rank
Kevin Smith	250	1038	4.2	7	41	287	1	193.5	16
Knowshon Moreno	210	945	4.5	6	25	168	1	158.3	26
Fred Jackson	125	525	4.2	4	37	278	1	128.8	33
Darren Sproles	95	447	4.7	3	37	322	2	120.4	39
Felix Jones	125	613	4.9	4	25	190	1	117.8	41
LenDale White	160	672	4.2	6	9	56	0	108.3	48
James Davis	130	514	4.0	3	21	145	1	97.9	51
Bernard Scott	80	304	3.8	2	13	90	0	57.9	63

Fred Jackson - At 28 years old, Jackson is older than most 3rd year players. He took an unusual route to the NFL but has clearly proved that he belongs. Marshawn Lynch's suspension is good news for Jackson early on, but the signing of Rhodes probably means an overall drop in his playing time. Look for both backups to split carries for most of the season. If either gets injured, then bump up the value of the other considerably.

Felix Jones - Jones should back up Marion Barber and get more touches than most RB2s around the league. His ability to hit the home run makes him someone worth drafting. You can never predict when he'll break a big run or catch, but if you have to play three RBs in most weeks, Jones could be a daunting option as your RB3 or flex. And obviously if Barber gets hurt, Jones would be a stud-in-the-making.

Knowshon Moreno - Many expect the Broncos to run a New England-style offense and that certainly is a possibility. However, they didn't draft Moreno that high for him to simply be a committee back. They anticipate that he will be involved on every down as a runner and receiver. Moreno is a special back - the likes that Denver hasn't seen since the days of Clinton Portis.

Kevin Smith - With a rookie signal-caller under center, expect the Lions to steal a page from the Falcons book from last season and establish a strong rushing attack to take pressure away from Stafford. Smith showcased last season that he is capable of 20+ carries per game, and he will likely receive a heavy workload even if he does lose some touches to Morris.

Darren Sproles - Darren Sproles is a classic boom-or-bust fantasy player. He has potential to be the Chargers' lead back if LaDainian Tomlinson is injured, and the Chargers' lead back is typically a fantasy stud. On the other hand, if Tomlinson stays healthy, Sproles will have too many unproductive games (from a fantasy standpoint) to be a worthwhile cog in your lineup. His greatest value will be as a handcuff for Tomlinson owners.

LenDale White - While it's popular to poke at White's girth, but he reportedly has shed 23 pounds since last October. Before you get carried away, he still weighs 238, which of course means he tipped the scales at 261 pounds in 2008. This change comes at a good time for White as the team seems prepared to move on from him after this season if he does not become more productive.

Player	Rsh	YD	Rec	YD	Y/Rec	TD	FPT	Rank
Larry Fitzgerald	1	5	94	1241	13.2	12	243.6	1
Greg Jennings	0	0	81	1223	15.1	9	216.8	6
Jerricho Cotchery	2	10	74	881	11.9	6	159.6	25
Laurent Robinson	0	0	44	568	12.9	3	96.8	55
Patrick Crayton	1	6	38	490	12.9	3	84.1	67

Jerricho Cotchery - Cotchery already has a 1,100-yard season and two 82-catch campaigns to his credit. His touchdown total rebounded from two to five a year ago, and that could see another slight uptick this year with Coles gone. Cotchery is very talented and adept after the catch and is no slouch in the deep passing game.

Patrick Crayton - Patrick Crayton doesn't do anything particularly well. He's neither sure-handed nor a precise route runner, and it's fair to say the Cowboys coaches would rather someone else emerge opposite Roy Williams so Crayton can move back to his natural role in the slot. In five seasons, Crayton has yet to put up Top 30 fantasy numbers. Don't bet on that changing in his sixth season.

Larry Fitzgerald - Fitzgerald performed as a top-flight receiver with or without running game support, with or without Anquan Boldin, and with or without good quarterback play. If Fitzgerald plays 16 games with Kurt Warner, he is a virtual lock to be among the fantasy elite.

Greg Jennings - There is no reason to anticipate a drop in his statistics in 2009. Jennings is young and entering the prime of his career. If the Packers rushing attack thrives this season, he could see a slight drop but he should still finish as a Top 10 receiver in 2009 with a ceiling that soars into the Top 5.

Laurent Robinson - Laurent Robinson is a tall, athletic wide receiver who flashed signs of being a future starter in Atlanta during his rookie season, but he couldn't stay healthy last year. The Rams acquired him for a song this offseason and he will compete with Keenan Burton to start. Even if he wins the job, the two young receivers could split reps in the #2 WR role, and the offense is likely to go through Steven Jackson.

Player	Rec	YD	Y/Rec	TD	FPT	Rank
John Carlson	55	616	11.2	5	119.1	10

John Carlson - A second-year player carries more risk than a veteran, but Carlson's skills make him a near lock to finish in the top half of starting NFL tight ends. He may have a smaller role this season and is unlikely to repeat his #7 fantasy finish, but he should be a worthwhile fantasy starter again.

Player	FGM	FGA	XPM	XPA	FPT	Rank
John Kasay	27	33	42	42	109.5	15

John Kasay - Kasay played in all 16 games the last four years. Before that he had dealt with various injuries for several years. The prior time that he played three full consecutive seasons was 1996 to 1998. In four of the last five years, Kasay was perfect on field goals under 40 yards. Also noteworthy is the fact that he made all his PATs the last three years. He had trouble being perfect on PATs the prior five years. The Panthers and Kasay have been up and down in kicker scoring in recent years. They finished 2005 with 121 kicking points, ranking 5th in the NFL. They also ranked fifth in 2003, their Super Bowl appearance year. In 2004 they slipped to 18th, and finished 24th in 2007 and 23rd in 2006. Last year they jumped back up, once again ranking 5th in the league. For 2009 the staff and team remains relatively intact, suggesting that another strong year for Kasay is a reasonable expectation. Panthers' history suggests otherwise.

Player	Sack	FR	INT	TD	Yd/G	Pt/G	FPT	Rank
Green Bay Packers	35	10	19	7	314	20.5	196.7	10

Green Bay Packers - Though the Packers were an average defense when measured by points and yardage, the unit forced 28 turnovers last season and scored nine combined defensive and special teams touchdowns. The big plays helped Green Bay to a Top 10 fantasy finish in a standard scoring system. Surprisingly the Packers offseason began with the hiring of long-time, 3-4 zone blitz guru Dom Capers, which confirmed rumors that they would be changing to a 3-4. They then spent the off-season shuffling personnel to fit the new scheme. Defensive end Aaron Kampman was moved to outside linebacker with OLB A.J. Hawk shifted inside alongside Nick Barnett. Green Bay then addressed two other critical needs in the draft by taking stud NT prospect B.J. Raji and versatile OLB prospect Clay Matthews, Jr. with their two first round draft picks. There are always growing pains with such a complete scheme change, but if Raji fulfills his promise and the defense can get enough pass rush from its new outside linebackers, the Packers could still finish among the Top 10 fantasy defenses. Smart owners should probably let someone else take the risk of drafting them highly.

Fun facts

Larry Fitzgerald had seven 100-yard games in 2008 despite only reaching double digit receptions in a game only once. Including the postseason, Fitzgerald is currently on a six game streak of reaching 100 yards receiving or more

Greg Jennings has had an increase in receptions and receiving yards in each of his first three years in the league.

Kevin Smith had six games with 20+ carries in 2008. All six came in his last eight games

Who was the last Denver RB to rush for 1000 yards in a season? Answer Tatum Bell in 2006. Knowshon Moreno will look to be the next to do so as one of the top rookie RBs in 2009

Jay Cutler had eight games of at least 300 yards passing last year. He was sacked only 11 times in 616 attempts for a league low 1.8% sack rate.

The Panthers entered the NFL in 1995, and except when injured, John Kasay has been their kicker the entire time.

Illinios/Indiana Fantasy Football League 2009 Season

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Illinios/Indiana Fantasy Football League
2009 Season